Monday, March 4, 2013

Pimco’s Gross culls Bernanke speech for bad news on Treasurys

Bill Gross tweeted about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday, noting projections for 10-year Treasurys showed negative total returns over next few years

PIMCO’s Bill Gross is not impressed with total returns for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.

Gross tweeted on Monday about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments on current monetary policy at a Fed research conference on Friday.

Bernanke warned that a premature exit from the Fed’s program of asset purchases could actually extend the period of low long-term rates. Those remarks came after two days of testimony to Congress ended Feb. 27 in which Bernanke reaffirmed his support for the Fed’s current bond-buying program. Read more: Bernanke says hasty end to easing could backfire.

Bernanke explained that long-term interest rates are composed of expected inflation, expected real short-term rates and a term premium. The low expectations for inflation and real short-term interest rates are fueled by central-bank mandates and the weak recovery of the so-called advanced economies, respectively.

“This weakness, all else being equal, dictates that monetary policy must remain accommodative if it is to support the recovery and reduce disinflationary risks,” said Bernanke.

Gross, who runs the world’s largest bond fund, said in December his bond picks are mostly outside of the Treasury market. Read more: Bill Gross, others look past Treasurys for 2013

The Total Return Fund PTTAX 0.00% held 26% in Treasury debt as of Dec. 31, an increase from the 20% it held at the end of September, according to PIMCO’s website.

Gross has been known to take the other side of the Fed trade in the Treasury market. He bet that there wouldn’t be a Treasury rally in 2011, only to watch as yields fell 147 basis points that year, pushing prices higher. Gross’s Total Return Fund performed poorly among its peers in 2011 and faced redemptions for the first year since the fund began in 1987.

Why Doesn't Yahoo! Want Employees to Telecommute?

Is water cooler conversation the means to company success? If you're Yahoo! CEO Marissa Mayer, the answer is yes.
Mayer has told her work-at-home employees to re-start their engines, hit the highway, and get back into the office. 
Recently, a confidential memo sent out by the Sunnyvale company's Human Resources 
Department to employees spelled out her strategy. It was revealed by AllThingsD's Kara Swisher:
“To become the absolute best place to work, communication and collaboration will be important, so we need to be working side-by-side. That is why it is critical that we are all present in our offices. Some of the best decisions and insights come from hallway and cafeteria discussions, meeting new people, and impromptu team meetings. Speed and quality are often sacrificed when we work from home. We need to be one Yahoo!, and that starts with physically being together.”
The change in policy runs counter to national trends. According to Reuters, "About one in five workers around the globe, particularly employees in the Middle East, Latin America and Asia, telecommute frequently and nearly 10 percent work from home every day." In India, over 50% telecommute. In Indonesia, 34%.
One study released over five years ago suggested that if all Federal employees who are eligible to telework full-time were to do so, the Federal Government "could realize $13.9 billion savings in commuting costs annually and eliminate 21.5 billion pounds of pollutants from the environment each year."


  1. "if all Federal employees who are eligible to telework full-time were to do so, the Federal Government "could realize $13.9 billion savings in commuting costs annually and eliminate 21.5 billion pounds of pollutants from the environment each year.""

    Imagine how much could be saved by just eliminating their jobs altogether!

  2. Great comment by cl in the last thread. Well said!

    Queen is right as well, there are many who do not have a family to fall back on. But they suffer in silence and isolation, you will rarely if ever hear about it.

    With the decline in face to face contact, and the rise of "social networks", it is easy to miss those who are not plugged in.

  3. Submitted for your Internet enjoyment, the continuing stories of a goldbug on the road:

    Getting my swag into Australia was no problem, although they most not see many people traveling with the stuff (and it wasn't all that much -- just a small test run). The Customs people were left scratching their heads, saying they didn't know what to do (I was doing it legal, and declared what I was carrying.) They got a printout of something from a government website that said precious metals do not have to have duty paid on them to enter Oz as long as they're bullion. Collectable coins whose value depends on their rarity or beauty, they're a different matter.

    Getting a safe deposit box was not easy. Me and X Mrs. Bukko had a hard time with that in the mid-2000s -- there's actually a waiting list to get one at major banks. No different now. The bank were I've had an account since 2005 -- never closed it even after we left -- said the wait at the biggest downtown branch was 3 to 5 YEARS! Forget that!

    Luckily, I remembered a safe deposit vault company that I used to see all the time from one of the trams I took to work. Stopped in and was lucky enough to snag a small box. Nothing in Australia is cheap, though. $240 a year! That's $20 a month! Plus a $275 deposit on the keys and $25 deposit for the RFID fob that's part of the access procedure. At least that $300 is refundable when I close the box.

    Lots of security procedures to get in -- even more than the one we had in Switzerland. I had to put my whole hand in a fingerprint scanner. Only way to get access is to re-scan my hand, plus enter an access code and wave the RFID fob. Plus being escorted to the vault. I hope that means super-security, and not just security theatre. I'm just relieved to have the load of stuff off my hands. Now I feel like I HAVE to immigrate here, though, because I have PMs sitting here.

  4. The Contrary InvestorMarch 5, 2013 at 11:07 AM

    Apologies for sounding like the contrarian, but if I had a business I would expect my employees to come into the office and work every day.

    Too many folks working at home likely spend half the day leisurely drinking coffee with a cat on their lap, rather than 'keeping their nose to the grindstone' like they would if they mase the daily slog into the office every day.

    Sorry. I would be in business to make money and produce something of value, rather than just coddle my employees.

  5. Hi Bukko! How long are you in OZ for? I take it since your PM's are now stored there, you will be making the permanant move before long.

    It would be great to visit one last time before you head to the southern hemisphere...just in time for their winter.

  6. I'm with contrary. Although I can see some benefits to telecommuting, I'm afraid that I do not see enough personal discipline to believe that people actually DO what they say they do. Heck, you can't find people who actually work when they ARE at work.

    Having gone to the VA to watch/hear the receptionist on the phone making her Botox appt.; having been subjected to retail employees who make no effort to actually wait on customers...unless they know a boss is watching!; having seen the influx of self-serve cash registers...I think the writing is on the wall.

    It's sort of like listening to Cramer give advice (headline today: WE ALL KNOW IT'S GOING TO END BADLY) I question why people are so easily led to put their confidence in the behavioral idea that others always have YOUR best interests at heart.

    Glad to hear you are having a successful trip, Bukko. Hope you get a chance to enjoy yourself in some nice sunny weather! The weather idiots are falling over themselves here in the Northeast over a bit of snow. They way they act we don't need any religion to predict the 'end of the world'. They seem to do so every other day. Course, this is snowstorm SATURN. This naming of snow storms has got to me. Are we going to have sunny day 'Orange' next?

    Perhaps they should nickname each storm CHICKEN LITTLE? After all, the sky is falling, right?

  7. Just got back from having the dog groomed. Price increase of $2 next month. That means $47.50 without tip.

    To me, that is inflationary.

    To the government, however, this means zilch as food, gas, and the other essentials don't apply to their statistics. And before someone say, "Do it yourself," I'd remind them that hubby has Parkinson's (that wouldn't be pretty for the doggie. And I'm not much better.)

    I may see if daughter would like to take her hand at learning clipping, however ;-)

  8. Thanks GAW for agreeing on both our points. So many people left to live in quiet desperation. The nursing homes are full of them.

    Mammoth and CL think of the overhead you save. No rent, Utilities, no workman's comp and many other items. If you pay by production then it is up to them to generate their own income. All I need is outside sales and an A/R clerk to cut the checks. Also an CPA that I can trust.

    I am still a big proponent of work from home jobs. Hell they goof off at workplaces too. So we will agree to disagree.

    Bukko I think your swag is in good hands even though it is pricey. Have fun on your adventures in OZ. Maybe I will join you one day. It's pretty hard for me to leave a Orlando having lived here for 43 years.

    After our one cold day at about 40F it is back up to 78. A perfect day with sun and I have the back door open so the cats can run in and out as they please. The dogs are sacked out in the bed with Yvonne who rarely gets up until 8pm.

  9. Queen-I think it works for some corporations and people. But you were raised in age of work ethic...and not as much 'social' media. (They call it social for a reason :-)

    It all boils down to what is produced, doesn't it? I think it can be very profitable with the right people. BUT, were I boss then I'd be keeping a careful eye on who I hired and what they did with their time.

    I'm trying a 'throw it together' recipe...put some black beans, garlic, onions, a little jalapeno, stick carrots and some thinly sliced chicken thighs in to cook in olive oil. Mashed together and rapping all that in whole wheat tortillas and topping with some cheese and tomato/green chili mixture. Used the rest of the beans in with some grape tomatoes, more onion, garlic, jalapeno and put a olive oil/balsamic dressing with a bit of garlic and salt and pepper. Lastly added fresh celery for crunch.

    It will work...or not. But we'll eat it just the same!

  10. CL, I could make a joke about you & Hubby opening up a combination dog grooming & neutering business, but it probably would not be too funny.

  11. works for me ;-)

  12. Goodbye Hugo!
    Chavez didn't take any sh!t.

  13. Caracas, Venezuela (CNN) -- Hugo Chavez, the polarizing president of Venezuela who cast himself as a "21st century socialist" and foe of the United States, died Tuesday, said Vice President Nicolas Maduro.
    Chavez, who had battled cancer, was 58.

    Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. May you be reborn as the cockroach or maybe a sewer rat.

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