Friday, March 30, 2012

China: Why All Feasts Must Come to An End

The first one is from the Daily Reckoning and all these were submitted by Shaza.


feature photo
Ed Note: Satyajit Das is going to share his series on China, 'All Feasts Must Come to An End', over the next three days. Das gave a fantastic presentation at 'After America'. You canorder the DVD now to see for yourself. His 'After America' speech included not just China but analysis of Europe, the United States and Australia. It was a perfect summary of the finance world today. A world everyone will be investing in over the next decade or more.

Part 1: China's Debt & Investment Fuelled Growth

The re-emergence of China has dominated recent economic and political discourse. The Chinese economy is forecast to expand by around 60 % in the period between 2007 and 2012, compared to around 3% for developed economies. While China's rise is important, its drivers are frequently misunderstood and poorly analysed.
China's economic structure is deeply flawed and fragile. The Chinese growth story may be ending. As an old Chinese proverb, probably apocryphal, holds: "There is no feast that does not come to an end."
Good Times, Desperate Times...
Prior to the global financial crisis, China's impact was mostly in manufacturing, especially consumer goods, and demand for commodities. With its large, low cost labour force, China became the world's manufacturing centre of choice, exporting around 50% of its output. This helped reduce inflation, lowering living costs throughout the world.
China also emerged as a large purchaser of commodities. It is now the largest purchaser of iron ore and other nonferrous metals. It is also one of the biggest purchasers of cotton and soybeans.
Between 1990 and 2010, China's share of world coal consumption increased from 24% to 50%, in part driving a doubling of coal prices. In the same period, China's share of world oil consumption increased from 3% to 10%, contributing to a 233% increase in oil prices.
Chinese savings and foreign exchange reserves (totalling over $3.2 trillion) were a major source of capital for financing developed countries, especially governments. China exported savings of around $400 billion each year, helping reduce interest rates in the US by as much as 1.00% per annum. Its role as an exporter of capital flows is surprising given China's average income per capita is around $4,000, well below that of the US and Europe.
Following the GFC, China's role became even more important. China, together with some of the other BRICcountries such as India and Brazil, contributed a large portion of global growth in 2010 and 2011.
As Western governments ran up large budget deficits in an effort to maintain economic growth, the ability to borrow from China, especially its large foreign exchange reserves, became important. Most recently, the European Union ("EU") and the International Monetary Fund ("IMF") sought the financial support of China to resolve the European debt crisis.
The country's increasing importance and foreign praise has led to Chinese hubris. The 30 July 2009 editorial in the English language People's Daily, an official publication, boasted that China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party ("CCP"), had coped successfully with the financial crisis, earning worldwide attention:
"High-level figures from the western political and economic spheres ... envy China's superb performance ... as well as "China's spirit"- the kind of solid, unbreakable "Great Wall" at heart to ward off the financial crisis."
Lock and Load....
From the Blog Viable Opposition

China's Holdings of U.S. Treasuries - What Does The Future Hold?


We are all aware that China has massive foreign exchange reserves; at the end of December 2011, China held a total of $3.181 trillion in various currencies, mainly in United States Treasuries.  The exact composition of China's foreign reserves is a great mystery, however, the Treasury Department report that I'm using for this posting is the most reliable source for the U.S. allocation of the total.  In recent weeks, the Eurozone debtor nations have been approaching China to invest in their rather toxic stew of sovereign debt, however, the outside world has no way of knowing whether they have actually accepted Europe's kind offer.

Here is a chart showing the data that I will be using for this posting sourced from the United States Treasury Department for historical data and from here for last year's data and from the Chinability website:


The Treasury Department releases a monthly summary of Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities showing which nations are holding U.S. Treasuries.  From that data, we can see how the holding of Treasuries by various countries has varied over time; for example, Japan was the largest holder of Treasuries between the years 2000 ($317.7 billion) and September of 2008 ($617.5 billion) when they were supplanted by China who held $618.2 billion in that month.  Since then, China has been the number one holder of U.S. Treasuries.

From Chinability

China's foreign exchange reserves, 1977-2011

Foreign-exchange reserves reached US$ 3.2 trillion in December 2011
At the start of the reform era at the end of 1978, China's foreign exchange reserves were minimal, but enough to cover the requirements of a country with a very small import bill.
In the early 1980s, export growth contributed to an initial rise in reserves to a peak of US$17.4bn by 1984. High trade deficits in 1985 and 1986 eroded the reserves in those years.
In 1987 the surplus on trade in services slightly exceeded the merchandise trade deficit, producing a small current-account surplus, and a comfortable net capital inflow helped push up reserves to US$16.3bn. The reserves were held above this level for another two years.

The economic slowdown of 1989-91 produced a sharp fall in imports in 1990, while exports continued to rise, producing a merchandise trade surplus for that year of US$9.2bn, which was gradually eroded in the next three years as imports rose faster than exports. By 1993 the trade and current accounts were in deficit, but the acceleration in inward FDI flows kept foreign exchange reserves rising for most of the rest of the decade.
Joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 contributed to rapid growth in imports, but exports also expanded at a fast pace, while FDI inflows exceeded US$60 billion a year by 2004-2006.
 In October 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded USD1 trillion for the first time. 
By the end of September 2008, the reserves topped USD 1.9 trillion, equal to nearly USD1,500 per head for the entire population of China. 
It remained around this level until the end of 2008 as trade growth slowed and foreign investment inflows declined. 
The onward march resumed in 2009 and by September 2011 foreign-exchange reserves had reached USD 3.2 trillion, where they remained for the rest of the year.


http://www.chinability.com/Reserves.htm

Thursday, March 29, 2012

RIM CEO cleans house as BlackBerry maker posts loss

It's about time!!! QB


TORONTO | Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:55pm EDT
(Reuters) - Research In Motion on Thursday reported a quarterly loss as BlackBerry shipments slumped again and said former co-CEO Jim Balsillie stepped down as director, part of a shake-up of the company's senior ranks by its new chief executive.
RIM's shares dropped as much as 9 percent after the company said it would no longer issue financial forecasts and is reviewing "strategic opportunities" such as partnerships and joint ventures licensing, and other ways to leverage its assets.
Chief Executive Thorsten Heins, who took from Balsillie and co-CEO Mike Lazaridis in January, would not rule out a sale of the company, though he said the company was still focusing on a turnaround.
"I did my own reality check on where the entire company really is. Having had the benefit of going through this process from the vantage point of CEO, it is now very clear to me that substantial change is what RIM needs," he said in a conference call with analysts.
The Waterloo, Ontario-based company shipped 11.1 million BlackBerry smartphones in the fourth quarter ended March 3, down 21 percent from the third quarter, but slightly ahead of analysts' expectations.
Even so it was the first quarterly decline in the period covering Christmas since 2006 and only the second time RIM has reported the metric dropping for that crucial period.
RIM sold more than 500,000 PlayBooks in the fourth quarter, a number inflated by deep discounts offered to boost sales of the product.
The decline in BlackBerry shipments suggests that RIM, at best, is treading water until it releases its next-generation of BlackBerry smartphones late this year. Most analysts consider that a do-or-die launch for the company as it falls further behind Apple Inc's iPhone and iPad and devices powered by Google's Android.
"PAYING THE PRICE"
To me they we so slow out of the starting gate that they are never going to catch up. Apple and Samsung will dominate this market. QB
Now her is a shocker.

Audit Faults Apple Supplier




Apple Inc.'s AAPL -1.26% biggest supplier agreed to change its labor practices after an outside audit found multiple instances of average work weeks exceeding 60 hours and health and safety issues at the Chinese factories.

Foxconn Investigation Report Highlight

The investigation of manufacturer Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., 2317.TW +2.65% known as Foxconn, was conducted by the Fair Labor Association and is the latest to document workers-rights violations in Apple's supply chain.

The audit was based, in part, on surveys of 35,500 workers building products like iPods and iPhones at three Foxconn facilities in Shenzhen and Chengdu. Apple, whose own audits have found similar violations, requested the investigation.

The nonprofit labor group, in one of the most detailed labor investigations of a Chinese manufacturer to date and the first outside audit of Apple's supply chain, found at least 50 legal or code violations or policy gaps, according to its report. The findings prompted Foxconn and Apple to agree to new reforms.

Apple issued a statement saying it fully support FLA's recommendations. "We think empowering workers and helping them understand their rights is essential," it said, adding the Cupertino, Calif., company had been working on these issues for years.

Foxconn said in a statement it would work with Apple to remedy the issues FLA raised and has participated "fully and openly in this review. Our employees are our greatest asset and we are fully committed to ensuring that they have a safe, satisfactory and healthy working environment," it said.

Nothing to see here, just move along. There will be some fines and some heads will roll, but the business practices will not change. Hey this is China we are talking about not California. I put the one sentence above in bold as it is total BS. They won't do a thing. I think I am dizzy from all the spin. QB


Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Property market undergoing seismic shift, report finds


Australia's real estate sector is undergoing a once-in-a-generation shift as debt-wary buyers stay out of the market, according to a new report.
Banks need to adjust to a "new normal" of weak demand for home loans that may drop to half the level of borrowings before the global financial crisis, according to the JPMorgan, Fujitsu Australian mortgage industry report.
“I do not expect to see a return to the buoyant times of the mid-2000's in the years ahead,” said Martin North, executive director of Fujitsu Australia & New Zealand, a co-author of the report.

Housing loan growth expanded at an average annual rate of 15.2 per cent from 1992 to 2006, spurred by a shift to lower interest rates from the Reserve Bank and the "free deposit" created by the rising value of homes for existing owners.
During that time, Australians also lifted their home loan-to-value ratios "to keep things going" in credit growth, the report said. In turn, the rise in LVRs - which gauge the relative size of the mortgage against the value of the home - helped fuel demand for home loans.
Since the financial crisis first emerged in 2007, however, housing credit growth has almost halved to 8.3 per cent, a pace likely to persist for 2012 and beyond.
“Going forward, we expect future housing credit growth to reflect fundamental factors, including normalised loan-to-value ratios, modest investor housing credit growth and tighter, more expensive funding for commercial real estate purposes, which will keep new housing starts under pressure,” the report said.
Demand falters
Faltering demand for home loans, despite Australia's estimated 180,000 shortfall of affordable homes, has helped cause the fall in home prices in past years. The housing market, which has stagnated over the past year, has begun to show signs of stress.
Fitch Ratings said yesterday that late payments on mortgages rose unexpectedly at the fourth quarter of 2011 to 1.57 per cent of mortgages between 30-59 days, up from 1.52 per cent in the third quarter.
Fitch noted, however, that the only factor that had deteriorated was home prices, which fell 4.8 per cent last year.
Still, not all commentary is gloomy about the outlook.
A regional report on housing by the ANZ today predicted the residential property market will ''find a floor in 2012,'' as lower mortgage rates and rising incomes ease housing affordability.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/property-market-undergoing-seismic-shift-report-finds-20120328-1vxr1.html#ixzz1qSVB6LrN

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning

By Andy Xie and sent to us by Shaza


Caixin is a Beijing-based media group dedicated to providing high-quality and authoritative financial and business news and information through periodicals, online and TV/video programs.
Japan is on an unsustainable path of a strong yen and deflation. The unprofitability of Japan's major exporters and emerging trade deficits suggest that the end of this path is in sight. The transition from a strong to weak yen will likely be abrupt, involving a sudden and big devaluation of 30 to 40 percent. It will be a big shock to Japan's neighbors and its distant competitors like Germany. The yen's devaluation in 1996 was a main factor in triggering the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan's neighbors must have a strong banking system to withstand a bigger devaluation of the yen.
Self-inflicted Deflation
Japan's nominal GDP [cnbc explains] contracted 8 percent in the four years to the third quarter of 2011, and six percentage points of that was due todeflation [cnbc explains] . Without increased government expenditure, the contraction will be one percentage point more. Japan has not seen this kind of sustained deflation since the 1930s.
Image Source | Getty Images

Without government deficits, Japan's economy will decline much more. Central government bonds and borrowings plus its guaranteed debts rose by 116.3 trillion yen during the period, equivalent to one-fourth of the level of the nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2011. If Japan had adopted balanced budgets, its economy would have contracted two to three times more. This will lead to a debt crisis in its private sector.
A strong yen [JPY=  83.04    -0.15  (-0.18%)   ], deflation and rising government debt form a short-term equilibrium that lasts as long as the market believes it is sustainable. The yen has seen a relentless upward trend since it depegged from the dollar in 1971, up to 83.4 from 360 again to the dollar. When wages and asset prices rise, a strong currency can be justified. When wages and asset prices fall, a strong currency is suicide. Japan's nominal GDP peaked in 1997 and its nominal wages did too. Its property prices have declined every year since. The Nikkei rose in only four out of the last fifteen years and is still close to a three-decade low.
Japanese policymakers, businesses, academics, currency traders and the average Mrs. Watanabe all believe in a strong yen. This belief is wrong but self-fulfilling. It has lasted so long because the Japanese government adopts policies to offset the destabilizing effects of deflation due to a strong yen. Hence, Japan's national debt has marched upwards along with the value of yen. It is expected to top yen 1,000 trillion in 2012, 215 percent of GDP, 7.8 million yen (or roughly US$ 94,000) per person, and about half of net household wealth per capita.

Monday, March 26, 2012


US stocks finished higher after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke hinted the US central bank would keep in place its supportive monetary policy.
Speaking to economists in Virginia, he said the job market remained weak despite three months of strong hiring.
The Fed needed to "remain cautious", he said, which many analysts took as a sign that interest rates would stay at record lows until 2014.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% to 1,416.51, its highest close since May 2008.
The Dow Jones rose 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.8% to close at 3,122.57, its best finish since November 2000.
Earlier, European markets had also closed higher.
The US economy has added an average of 245,000 jobs a month from December to February, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3% from 9.2% in June last year.
But Mr Bernanke said: "Despite the recent improvement, the job market remains far from normal. The number of people working and total hours worked are still significantly below pre-crisis peaks."

Green Mountain Founder Sold Stock Before Starbucks Threat

Robert P. Stiller, founder and chairman of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR), sold $66.3 million of his stock before it plunged the most in four months on news that Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) had developed a rival to its K-Cup brewer.
Stiller’s combined sales on Feb. 15 and 24 were his largest in a single month since at least 2003, when the stock traded below $2, data compiled by Bloomberg show. He would have received $13.7 million less had he sold after March 9, when the shares fell 16 percent on Starbucks’ introduction of a machine for home-brewing single cups of espresso and coffee, a challenge to Green Mountain’s Keurig system.
“We recently learned of Starbucks’ planned initiative in the espresso-based single-cup category,” Green Mountain said in a March 9 regulatory filing, a day after the machine was announced. “However, we were not made aware of any additional capabilities.” Spokesmen for Green Mountain wouldn’t specify when it learned of the plan.
Green Mountain is struggling to hold market share as it braces for the September expiration of its main patents on K- Cups. The plastic pods have dominated single-serve coffee making in the U.S., with flavors including Gloria Jean’s Butter Toffee Coffee and Wolfgang Puck’s Jamaica Me Crazy blends. As other companies prepare their own machines, the Waterbury, Vermont- based brewer’s stock has almost halved to $53.51 in the six months through last week.
The shares dropped 2 percent to $52.45 at 4:30 p.m. in New York, after reaching as high as $54.75 during the session.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-26/green-mountain-founder-sold-stock-before-starbucks-k-cup-threat.html 


Here's a look at my American Eagle proof set. If you can look close enough You will see that the dates are on the Liberty side of the coin are in Roman numerals. They only did this during the 1980's. They come in a nice box and the coins are encapsulated with a confirmation of authenticity. The Buffalo proof set (my personal favorite) had a beautiful wooden and leather box.




Sunday, March 25, 2012

Stocks: What will the consumer do?


It's shaping up to be another rough week.
As investors put the recent spate of disappointing housing news behind them, they'll turn their attention to the consumer, with reports due on consumer confidence and personal income and spending.
"Consumer confidence has been moving higher on a regular basis, and if it continues to remain on a path to improvement -- the focus will turn to what are the forward expectations," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist with Janney Montgomery Scott.
Last month, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in a year. This week, economists are expecting that number to continue to nudge higher for March.
It's the "numbers within the numbers" that are going to be important drivers this week, Luschini said. With personal income and spending, due before the market opens Friday, Luschini said the spending and savings numbers will be key to determining just how resilient consumers are.
Aside from the consumer-focused data, reports on pending home sales and Case-Shiller's 20-city index are on tap for the week, but experts don't expect much impact unless there's a huge surprise. The same goes for durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims, which are back at a four-year low.
Investors will also get a look at just how healthy the U.S. economy was at the end of last year, when the Commerce Department reports its third reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Experts don't expect to see much change from the prior GDP estimate of 3%.
U.S. stocks have had a great year so far but are coming off a choppy week: Only the Nasdaq was able to eke out a gain of 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow closed down 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.
And experts say investors should expect more of the same this week.

Goldman’s Succession Fight Roiled by Infamous Op-Ed

More often than not during the past 100 years, succession to the top job at Goldman Sachs (GS) has been a blood sport.
A careful reading of former Goldman employee Greg Smith’s infamous New York Times op-ed article -- along with a twist of conspiracy theory -- suggests that the jockeying to replace Lloyd Blankfein, who has been Goldman’s chief executive officer since June 2006, is well under way.
It’s also possible that Smith may have unwittingly, or perhaps wittingly, given a boost to one candidate previously thought to have been out of the running: J. Michael Evans, head of the firm’s global growth markets.
Despite what Goldman would have you believe about how carefully orchestrated its leadership changes have always been, the firm has rarely had an orderly succession. Consider the exit of Waddill Catchings, the first person from outside the family to run Goldman Sachs. In 1930, partners Sidney Weinberg and Walter Sachs decided that Catchings, whose creation of the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation had by then cost the firm $13 million and nearly put it out of business, had to go.


Bats CEO Scuttled IPO on Potential for Erratic Trading

I have never heard of this happening before. Queenbee


The potential for “uncoordinated and chaotic” trading after bad code corrupted its computers spurred Bats Global Markets Inc. (BATS), the third-biggest U.S. stock exchange operator, to scuttle its initial public offering, according to the company’s chief executive officer.
Joe Ratterman, picked as CEO of the six-year-old stock venue in 2007 after the high-frequency trader who founded Bats left, said in a telephone interview that the board hasn’t discussed leadership changes. While his team in Lenexa, Kansas, responded in seconds when computer errors related to software for the IPO auction derailed its stock and forced a halt in Apple Inc., it wasn’t enough to salvage the public debut.
“It was embarrassing,” Ratterman said. “We feel terrible about it. But the steps that were taken, I believe, were taken at the right pace and the right actions were taken,” he said. “The firm is responsible. We take responsibility. There’s no outside influence here.”
Ratterman, 45, faces the biggest crisis of his career after scrapping the IPO, intended to raise money for the Wall Street firms that guided Bats from a company with 13 employees six years ago into the third-largest American equities exchange. The cancellation emboldened critics of modern market structure, who say the mosaic of more than 50 trading sites that grew up in tandem with electronic trading during the last 15 years has put investors at risk.

‘Isolated Events’

“There are going to be isolated events at the different market centers over time,” Ratterman said. “We’ve had historically very few instances where our systems have gone down, but they have gone down in different ways in the past like every other venue. I don’t think this is anything new as much as it was under a bright spotlight.”

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Hong Kong Beats Netherlands and U.S. as Best Place for Business


Hong Kong (HSI), a bastion of free-market policies and low corporate taxes as well as the gateway to the world’s most populous nation, is the best place to do business, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The city of about 7 million people secured top position in a new index based on six criteria including the degree of economic integration and labor costs. The Netherlands, the U.S., the U.K. and Australia occupied the next four leading slots.
The ranking marks a victory for Hong Kong 15 years after the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty stoked concern that its role as an international financial hub would slide. General Electric Co. has established operations there, Gap Inc. is among the retailers drawn by the 28 million Chinese tourists who pass through it and HSBC Holdings Plc is one of the financial titans listed on its stock exchange.
Hong Kong is a gateway to China, it has competitive tax rates and that makes it one of the natural choices for companies to set up their Asian headquarters,” said Tomo Kinoshita, deputy head of Asia economics research at Nomura Holdings Inc. who has worked in the city for five years. “It makes sense for companies that want to be close to China as well as the rest of Asia to use Hong Kong as their base.”
Bloomberg Rankings measured 160 markets on a scale of zero to 100 percent based on six factors. These are the costs of setting up business, hiring and moving goods; the degree of economic integration; less tangible costs such as inflation and corruption; and the readiness of the local consumer base, a category that includes the size of the middle class, household consumption and gross domestic product per person.

Last-Placed Brazil

Hong Kong scored 49 percent, eclipsing the Netherlands’ 48.3 percent and the U.S.’s 46.9 percent. Of the top 50, Germany was the leader on the basis of cost of doing business, moving goods and less tangible costs, while the readiness of the local consumers was deemed best in the United Arab Emirates. The price of labor and materials was lowest in Montenegro and the Netherlands was deemed best for setting up a business.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Those Were the Days My Friend

Anyone think that technology is really making life better ought can take my stroll down memory lane. Yes times they have changed, but remember the simple pleasures of being a kid?
How about a game of Monopoly?
Or even simpler a game of Jacks
The old playground with slides and swings
Now the new and improved version


No doubt that I love the internet and my 40" HD LCD TV, but really I open my car hood and I wouldn't have a clue what is what. Even the TV remote controls have become so advanced that many older people have a hard time with them and these are some of the simpler ones.


We would go down to a local TV Dealer that might even be your neighbour and you'd buy a Sylvania, RCA, Magnovox or Motorola 25 inch color console  television.


You're big decision was how big a screen to buy and if it was color or B&W. Then for reception you had an antenna on the roof and maybe got three or four stations.

Now it is Plasma, LED, LCD, HD 1080p and what TV system is complete without surround sound attached to a satellite or a cable box? Now you receive up to 500 channels and pay per view events and movies. Or you can have movie packages like HBO, ShowTime, Cinemax and 5 ESPN stations.


Cooking was done on a gas range and oven.  
Now we have porcelain tops stoves that run on electricity and microwave ovens of all shapes and cooking types. Baking? Who on earth would bake any more when you can go down to the local grocery and buy a beautiful cake for 10.00?  Dinner is done in 10 minutes in the microwave. Making a meal and the whole family sitting down to a dinner is rare.







Remember the milkman? He would bring the milk at 5:00am and collect the empties.


Then let's talk about the evolution of the telephone. I never forget the laugh I had watching a movie someone might remember as I don't. The young woman had never seen a rotary phone and she was trying to make a call by pushing her fingers in between the holes on the phone.


Now you have cordless in your home and a cell phone with free long distance. Everyone was screaming as the phone companies converted from analog to digital. Now you have no choice. I remember as I was working in customer service for a cell phone company that has long since been gobbled up again by AT&T. We just had to break up that monopoly and now they own most of the "Baby Bells" again.


The World Series was broadcast on the radio and the kids would sneak a transistor radio with a little ear plug they would try to hide from the teacher to listen to the game.

No one played soccer and now we have Nascar Dad's and Soccer Mom's.

Football before the Superbowl.

Now we have Cathedrals sized stadiums to house the games. The Roman's never dreamed of what Jerry Jones (owner of the Dallas Cowboys) would build in Dallas for America's Team.


Please chime in on some of the memories like calling your broker or imagine trading like Nicholas Darvas did in the 50's and 60's. No charts just price and volume. The insanity that might happen on the floor of the NYSE as brokers screamed out offers and others scream back buys.



Oh how life has changed and moves faster every day. Cars were simple once.


Now they come with digital readouts, GPS screens telling you which way to turn and DVD players in the back seat to keep the kids quiet. Now they have cell phones for every child and they would rather text on Twitter or Facebook than to call and talk to their friends.

What do you think? 

When did the American Dream go from this
To this?