
Ed Note: Satyajit Das is going to share his series on China, 'All Feasts Must Come to An End', over the next three days. Das gave a fantastic presentation at 'After America'. You canorder the DVD now to see for yourself. His 'After America' speech included not just China but analysis of Europe, the United States and Australia. It was a perfect summary of the finance world today. A world everyone will be investing in over the next decade or more.
Part 1: China's Debt & Investment Fuelled Growth
The re-emergence of China has dominated recent economic and political discourse. The Chinese economy is forecast to expand by around 60 % in the period between 2007 and 2012, compared to around 3% for developed economies. While China's rise is important, its drivers are frequently misunderstood and poorly analysed.
China's economic structure is deeply flawed and fragile. The Chinese growth story may be ending. As an old Chinese proverb, probably apocryphal, holds: "There is no feast that does not come to an end."
Good Times, Desperate Times...
Prior to the global financial crisis, China's impact was mostly in manufacturing, especially consumer goods, and demand for commodities. With its large, low cost labour force, China became the world's manufacturing centre of choice, exporting around 50% of its output. This helped reduce inflation, lowering living costs throughout the world.
China also emerged as a large purchaser of commodities. It is now the largest purchaser of iron ore and other nonferrous metals. It is also one of the biggest purchasers of cotton and soybeans.
Between 1990 and 2010, China's share of world coal consumption increased from 24% to 50%, in part driving a doubling of coal prices. In the same period, China's share of world oil consumption increased from 3% to 10%, contributing to a 233% increase in oil prices.
Chinese savings and foreign exchange reserves (totalling over $3.2 trillion) were a major source of capital for financing developed countries, especially governments. China exported savings of around $400 billion each year, helping reduce interest rates in the US by as much as 1.00% per annum. Its role as an exporter of capital flows is surprising given China's average income per capita is around $4,000, well below that of the US and Europe.
Following the GFC, China's role became even more important. China, together with some of the other BRICcountries such as India and Brazil, contributed a large portion of global growth in 2010 and 2011.
As Western governments ran up large budget deficits in an effort to maintain economic growth, the ability to borrow from China, especially its large foreign exchange reserves, became important. Most recently, the European Union ("EU") and the International Monetary Fund ("IMF") sought the financial support of China to resolve the European debt crisis.
The country's increasing importance and foreign praise has led to Chinese hubris. The 30 July 2009 editorial in the English language People's Daily, an official publication, boasted that China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party ("CCP"), had coped successfully with the financial crisis, earning worldwide attention:
"High-level figures from the western political and economic spheres ... envy China's superb performance ... as well as "China's spirit"- the kind of solid, unbreakable "Great Wall" at heart to ward off the financial crisis."
Lock and Load....
From the Blog Viable Opposition
China's Holdings of U.S. Treasuries - What Does The Future Hold?
We are all aware that China has massive foreign exchange reserves; at the end of December 2011, China held a total of $3.181 trillion in various currencies, mainly in United States Treasuries. The exact composition of China's foreign reserves is a great mystery, however, the Treasury Department report that I'm using for this posting is the most reliable source for the U.S. allocation of the total. In recent weeks, the Eurozone debtor nations have been approaching China to invest in their rather toxic stew of sovereign debt, however, the outside world has no way of knowing whether they have actually accepted Europe's kind offer.
Here is a chart showing the data that I will be using for this posting sourced from the United States Treasury Department for historical data and from here for last year's data and from the Chinability website:
The Treasury Department releases a monthly summary of Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities showing which nations are holding U.S. Treasuries. From that data, we can see how the holding of Treasuries by various countries has varied over time; for example, Japan was the largest holder of Treasuries between the years 2000 ($317.7 billion) and September of 2008 ($617.5 billion) when they were supplanted by China who held $618.2 billion in that month. Since then, China has been the number one holder of U.S. Treasuries.
From Chinability
China's foreign exchange reserves, 1977-2011
Foreign-exchange reserves reached US$ 3.2 trillion in December 2011
In October 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded USD1 trillion for the first time.
By the end of September 2008, the reserves topped USD 1.9 trillion, equal to nearly USD1,500 per head for the entire population of China.
It remained around this level until the end of 2008 as trade growth slowed and foreign investment inflows declined.
The onward march resumed in 2009 and by September 2011 foreign-exchange reserves had reached USD 3.2 trillion, where they remained for the rest of the year.
http://www.chinability.com/Reserves.htm
At the start of the reform era at the end of 1978, China's foreign exchange reserves were minimal, but enough to cover the requirements of a country with a very small import bill.
In the early 1980s, export growth contributed to an initial rise in reserves to a peak of US$17.4bn by 1984. High trade deficits in 1985 and 1986 eroded the reserves in those years.
In 1987 the surplus on trade in services slightly exceeded the merchandise trade deficit, producing a small current-account surplus, and a comfortable net capital inflow helped push up reserves to US$16.3bn. The reserves were held above this level for another two years.
The economic slowdown of 1989-91 produced a sharp fall in imports in 1990, while exports continued to rise, producing a merchandise trade surplus for that year of US$9.2bn, which was gradually eroded in the next three years as imports rose faster than exports. By 1993 the trade and current accounts were in deficit, but the acceleration in inward FDI flows kept foreign exchange reserves rising for most of the rest of the decade.
Joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 contributed to rapid growth in imports, but exports also expanded at a fast pace, while FDI inflows exceeded US$60 billion a year by 2004-2006.In October 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded USD1 trillion for the first time.
By the end of September 2008, the reserves topped USD 1.9 trillion, equal to nearly USD1,500 per head for the entire population of China.
It remained around this level until the end of 2008 as trade growth slowed and foreign investment inflows declined.
The onward march resumed in 2009 and by September 2011 foreign-exchange reserves had reached USD 3.2 trillion, where they remained for the rest of the year.
http://www.chinability.com/Reserves.htm





































