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There has definitely been a change in the distribution network the in ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, S. Korea) regional economy after the Fukishima tragedy and the flooding in Thailand in 2011. Many markets are in upheaval, like rice, where Thailand's exports will be down 30% this year allowing Vietnam to claim, at least for this year, the honor of largest exporter of rice in the world.
Concerning Japan specifically, from the people I have talked with, it is likely that much of what was lost around Fukishima will not be rebuilt anytime soon if ever. So, the increases in demand for their trading partners from lost infrastructure is very likely to be permanent. They will be shutting down the last of their nuclear reactors according to Prime Minister Noda, which means a tremendous energy shortage. It will be difficult for them to shift their energy needs and maintain their standard of living. But Japan still has tremendous wealth at its disposal so instead of rebuilding in Japan, they are looking to deploy their capital to better effect.
While the trade delegations from Japan that came through Ba Ria-Vung Tau province in December and January did not yield many signed contracts with Japanese SME's complaining about the lack of proper infrastructure, recent news has revealed that:
…in the first quarter of 2012 alone, Japanese capital flow to Vietnam reached 2.3 billion dollars, accounting for 89 percent of the total FDI capital in Vietnam, making Japan the biggest foreign investor among 26 countries which have FDI in Vietnam.The biggest FDI projects all have been registered by Japanese, including the Tokyu Binh Duong urban area project, the tyre factory Bridgestone in Hai Phong, Oshima Shipbuilding Khanh Hoa, Sumitomo supporting industries development – a project developed by Shimizu Coro and N&G.
In 208 deals in 2011, Japan invested only $1.8 billion in Vietnam. They are currently on pace to exceed that number by 455% in 2012.
http://www.alphavn.com/2012/04/13/japan-deepens-ties-with-vietnam/
Keep an eye on VNM ( Viet Nam etf) if massive stimulus comes out of China, Japan, EU and USA, Viet Nam could really benefit....Japan is heavily into Viet Nam as is China. Since January this etf is up 41%. If it goes above the first line of key resistance on high volume, in the company of stimulus out of China and US, go for it!
Keep an eye on VNM ( Viet Nam etf) if massive stimulus comes out of China, Japan, EU and USA, Viet Nam could really benefit....Japan is heavily into Viet Nam as is China. Since January this etf is up 41%. If it goes above the first line of key resistance on high volume, in the company of stimulus out of China and US, go for it!
15 comments:
But Japan still has tremendous wealth at its disposal...
Disagree. What they have are clownbux, the value of which are transitory at best.
Japan is entering the lucrative domestc Sino markets via the back door... China is still booming compared to west , domestic market will keep growing...go across to Malaysia , Cambodia and Vietnam Nam... You must see it
Shaz, you think it will still matter, the feelings of hate from China and other countries that suffered under the Japanese during WW II ? Will it be a factor when Japan is aging, radioactive and spent from stagflation, and those other countries have the upper hand? Or will they be as forgiving and forgetful as Australia? I mean, parts of Cairns have as many signs in Japanese as they do in English, and there is much dependence in the auto industry on Japanese marques like Toyota with the factories in Victoria and elsewhere. I have a feeling that countries that were more directly invaded by Nippon than Australia was will stick the bayonets in when they have a chance, but that's just my vindictive gut saying that.
Gold and silver must be consolidating as they are going nowhere. The miners continue their plunge as TGLDX is off from 80 to under 70 and they are a good barometer.
You got that right, Queenbee. I am down $6.78 (1.18%) on my most recent Silver purchase.
Will probably just sit on what I have for now. Anyway, just around the corner is 'sell in May and go away.'
(Not that I will sell, just sit on it instead.)
Mammoth I don't even think about selling unless it is to pay off bills. If I was trading SLV and GLD then that would be a different story. The miners have really been a disappointment this spring as it is usually the season they make their best gains. Instead they have continued to go down. It's a good thing I don't have my life's savings in it.
Quote of the day:
"Precious metals prices seem to take the steps up and the elevator down."
A friend mentioned that her 'broker' just put her in an "Allstate bond" paying 6% interest for X years. (I forget the exact number of years.)
Could someone explain what this sounds like?
I'm simply wondering. Silly me thinks Allstate is an INSURANCE company...
I've been doing some readings on Rome (for a story I am writing.) Reading a very interesting book entitled: One Year in Palestine about life there in year One. The similarities between Rome's economy and relationships to the people (religious, financial, etc.) are remarkable. It's a good reminder to think of how people with mud walls with cow dung would cook, pay taxes, worship, marry, and live. We have come so far in many ways and are so similar in others. We may SMELL better...but we have yet to LEARN from history ;-)
CL look for an email from me if you see this first.
Not necessarily interested so much for ME she just said her broker (whom she trusts) had put her on to it. Also put her sister-in-law on to it. I know she said the broker had advised her to get OUT of some fund exposed to Europe.
Personally, 'm investing in a new back screen door (like the one on here was put on in 1955!!!!!!!) Have a handyman coming tomorrow to pressure wash the house and deck. He will restain deck and so some painting and put in the screen door, etc. Nice guy and he charges $25 an hour which is more than reasonable for someone you know isn't going to cheat you, rob you, and is willing to tell you if he CAN'T do something.
I WILL tell you that my dog groomer just raised her price (inflation) because HER taxes went up. I told her that meant her tip was going DOWN.
on the note above...I find it 'amusing' the way people respond to ideas lately. We aren't in a 'crisis' because people spent too much...it's because we haven't spent enough to get OUT of the problem. HAHAHAHA. I'm sorry but any housewife worth her salt can tell you that you can only SPEND WHAT YOU HAVE.
anyone here know about 'tube steaks'? How about fish fingers? Or Wed night is blank blank night? What about salmon cakes? These were all s-t-r-e-t-c-h meals growing up.
Again, it's SAVING for the unexpected rainy day. Like your income tax return. You saved part. You spent some. You put some away for something 'long term/tangible'. Divided it into thirds.
Now we have $500 for a prom gown. Someone made my gown. My wedding gown...$65 on Clover day sale. Headpiece $35..with discount (mine) for working at Strawbridges. AND I got my college degree in 3 years by going all summer AND working. I'd have classes from 8-4 then drive to work from 6:10pm to 9:40 and then go home. I didn't party. I didn't have TIME.
Chicken Little, great to see you commenting here again. I love your down-to-earth, very human posts.
Regarding 's-t-r-e-t-c-h meals,' yesterday I disposed of the ham-bone left over from last Sunday's Easter ham. I pulled a teriffic ham & bean soup recipe off the Internet.
The soup drew raves from the crowd of three (inclusing myself) seated around the dinner table yesterday evening.
Shorting gold here for a quick trade
Bukko...that china/ japan hate thing will go on for ad infinitum...but as the saying goes, where trade crosses borders, armies do not!
Australians in the WW2 generation who fought them in New gueinea still have much hate for them, but they are dying off and hopefully the animosity will be buried too...the average japanese guy in the 30's and 40's did not want war...just psychopaths running the world again I am afraid! Like I say, Psychopaths make the world go around...
Silver is consolidation and has a massive long term head and shoulders formation going on
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