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Guru Grades
Can experts, whether self-proclaimed or endorsed by others (publications), provide reliable stock market timing guidance? Do some experts clearly show better intuition about overall market direction than others?
We have accumulated reviews of the public U.S. stock market forecasts of various investing/trading experts for more than two years. With approximately 6,000 measurements for more than 60 gurus, including bulls and bears and technicians and fundamentalists, we have critical mass for: (1) assessing the forecasting acumen of the stock market gurus as a group; and, (2) ranking experts according to the accuracy of their past forecasts. This kind of forecasting ability is different from, but may be related to, stock picking expertise.
Note that the overall assessment of the stock market forecasting ability of experts in aggregate is far more reliable, based on sample size and duration, than the evaluations of individuals.
Note also that this study is not a test of whether the outputs of the experts are interesting, stimulating or useful in ways other than predicting the behavior of the overall U.S. stock market.
To interpret these grades correctly, please be sure to read our notes and the questions and answers section, both of which highlight our reasoning and address reader concerns.
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4 comments:
From Colin twiggs...go to his site for chart review:
Gold remains undecided despite a sharp fall on the Gold Bugs Index. The long tail on last week's candle for spot gold indicates buying pressure at the $1600 support level. Recovery above $1700 would respect the long-term trendline and indicate another test of $1800, suggesting the start of a new up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, offering a target of $2000/ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough predominantly above the zero line would strengthen the bull signal. Reversal below support at $1600, however, would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if support at $1500 is broken.
CBOE Volatility Index( VIX :INDEX)
STILL FADING! WOW...-14.09%
GAW what happened to Benton? back where it started at .33
Mugabe anything new to report on the streets of Spain?
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