As Mohamed El-Erian says, the broken dynamics surrounding Greece right now are extremely reminiscent of what was happening in Argentina in 2001. New money is necessary, but it’s also insufficient; it all feels like some kind of Samuel Beckett-style existential paradox. You must go on, I can’t go on, I’ll go on.
To provide a bit of context here, look at the amount that the Greek economy has already shrunk: 16%. That compares to 20%, peak-to-trough, in Argentina, and 29% in the US in the Great Depression. But the big problem in Greece is that the worst economic effects of austerity haven’t even happened yet.
“On the current path – which is not sustainable in my view – we may very well see Greek GDP go down 25-30 percent, which would be historically unprecedented. It’s a disastrous crisis for them,” Dadush, a former senior World Bank official, said…“They’re suffering. It’s nasty,” said Weisbrot, who has studied the lessons to be learned from economic crises in Latvia and Argentina. “If you could say with a reasonable probability that the worst was over, then that would be different. But you can’t say that. They’re in for a long nightmare.”
The point here is that both Europe and Greece need a light at the end of the tunnel. Without that, social unrest in Greece will only get worse, the credibility of its promises will continue to deteriorate, and the Europeans will be understandably reluctant to throw good money after bad. And right now that light does not exist. Greece probably can’t implement the austerity package it’s promising, and even if it does, GDP won’t start growing to the point at which its debt-to-GDP ratio will come down to a remotely sustainable level. Which brings me to El-Erian:
First, they should stop repeating the claim that there is no “Plan B.” Telling people that there is no alternative to a discredited policy merely pushes them either to resist an approach that does not work, or to opt for mayhem. Recent official remarks heard in Greece (“We must show that Greeks, when they are called on to choose between the bad and the worst, choose the bad to avoid the worst”) do little to engender hope.
The lesson of what happened in Argentina should be top of mind:
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/02/15/greece-is-broken-and-cant-be-fixed/After the Argentine parliament approved yet another new austerity package, the IMF agreed to release its financing tranche. But it was too late to save a discredited approach, further undermining the Fund’s standing.Indeed, rather than engendering confidence, Argentine citizens withdrew their bank deposits over the next few months. Capital flight accelerated. The government again failed to deliver on its policy commitments. Most important of all, social and political pressures mounted, reaching a tipping point.
Copied from Jesse's Cafe Americain
Free Kindle Edition of The New Robber Barons By Janet Tavakoli
You must own a kindle or kindle app for PC or mac to download it. You can find it at Amazon US here, at Amazon UK here, or Amazon France here.
This e-book is a collection of her writings from various sources.
The NEW ROBBER BARONS continues financial expert Janet Tavakoli’s on-going chronicle of the global financial crisis captured in her articles from the September 2008 meltdown through February 2012. Picking up where her previous book, Dear Mr. Buffett, ended, she exposes the criminogenic environment that enabled international oligarchs to solidify power.
In January 2009, Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, told Tom Brokaw: “the idea that people that move money around are some favored class…strikes me as getting pretty far away from where we should be.” Two years later he publicly excused apparent insider trading by one of his successor candidates, David Sokol.
51 comments:
Following on from the earlier comments about the vermin in the White House, here is something that I have nicked from one of Faber's old reports, though he probably nicked it from somewhere else.
Compare and contrast BO or any other of the others that proceeded him or those that are likely to come after to Harry Truman
"Harry Truman was a different kind of President. He probably made as many, or more important decisions regarding our nation's history as any of the other 42 Presidents preceding him. However, a measure of his greatness may rest on what he did after he left the White House.
The only asset he had when he died was the house he lived in, which was in Independence Missouri His wife had inherited the house from her mother and father and other than their years in the White House, they lived their entire lives there. When he retired from office in 1952, his income was a U.S. Army pension reported to have been $13,507.72 a year. Congress, noting that he was paying for his stamps and personally licking them, granted him an 'allowance' and, later, a retroactive pension of $25,000 per year. After President Eisenhower was inaugurated, Harry and Bess drove home to Missouri by themselves. There was no Secret Service following them. When offered corporate positions at large salaries, he declined, stating, "You don't want me. You want the office of the President, and that doesn't belong to me. It belongs to the American people and it's not for sale.." Even later, on May 6, 1971, when Congress was preparing to award him the Medal of Honor on his 87th birthday, he refused to accept it, writing, "I don 't consider that I have done anything which should be the reason for any award, Congressional or otherwise." As president he paid for all of his own travel expenses and food. Modern politicians have found a new level of success in cashing in on the Presidency, resulting in untold wealth. Today, many in Congress also have found a way to become quite wealthy while enjoying the fruits of their offices. Political offices are now for sale. (sic. Illinois ) Good old Harry Truman was correct when he observed, "My choices in life were either to be a piano player in a whore house or a politician. And to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference!
I've always admired Harry even if Margaret couldn't sing ;-)
And, while some accuse him of the dire crime of dropping the bomb, I would remind them that at least he MADE a decision. Right or wrong, he made a decision and kept it. For those like my father who faced down life and death decisions every moment, they believed he shortened the war.
As I said before, watch what people DO not what they say. It is easy to proclaim a 'side' when YOU have nothing to lose. As much as I dislike Obama and his decisions, there is an element in me that feels sympathy for the office and the huge amount of responsibility that goes with it.
Interesting that today's sermon was on the 2 Seas in Israel...the Galilee and Dead. The Dead takes from the Jordan and gives BACK. The Dead simply keeps. Moral-We must receive AND give or we eventually become 'deadened' inside. Would that all in positions of leadership could understand that concept. Perhaps instead of lining their own pockets they would understand the huge responsibility of leadership they hold...
To my pleasant surprise I got a history lesson added to my comment the other day that none of the POTUS stood up for anything prior to IKE and lied about their actions. Thank you both.
I wrote a college thesis in a history class about the dropping of the bomb and why we didn't have to. However, looking back 30 year ago, I see both sides more clearly.
A lot more American soldiers would have died had the Emperor dragged this out just to get a better surrender deal for Japan. For all intents and purposes they had already lost and in the end he didn't get anything out of it.
My thesis was not whether to drop the bomb, but whether or not to drop it in a heavily populated area. Homes were made of wood in those days and both cities went up like the Great Chicago Fire only in seconds. Right or wrong is not for me to judge. It was just an opinion in regards to his options. I think I would have liked Harry Truman and Ike. Actually I think all POTUS have likability, but the ends don't always justify the means.
Should I keep Greece in the forefront or move on? It is a fascinating soap opera. Also another German President resigned amid scandal. You can elect them, but you cannot make them behave.
From my reading about WWII, you are quite correct Queen.
It was projectd that a D-Day style invasion of Japan would cost up to 1 million Allied (mostly US troops) casualties, dead and wounded, take up to a year, and reduce all of Japan to rubble with fanatics still fighting on.
While it is hard to say if that is true, I have no doubt it is close.
The only possible disagreement I have with Truman there is that I would probably have dropped the first nuclear bomb on a more isolated military base, not a major city - then told the Japanese to surrender or a minor city will be next, and then Tokyo.
There was probably some element of disbelief from the Japanese that the US actually had such a weapon working, which delayed them concluding they had no option but to surrender.
I am sure there was some feeling of war weariness on the US side, and a desire to get the war over with as soon as possible. The Japanese should have been smarter after Germany fell, they could have surrendered months earlier and probably gotten a "better" deal - but since their own arrogance led them to join WWII on the Axis side, smarter was not really in thier vocabulary.
OTOH, you could argue that WWII made Japan (and Germany) into the modern industrial powerhouses they are, as the Allies (again mostly US) helped them to rebuild after.
Turman was indeed a great President, and a perfect example of the kind of leadership so massively absent in America today.
So was Eisenhower, who warned of the rise of the "military-industrial complex", which contributed to the rise of today's "financial terrorist oligarchic kleptocracy Bankster complex" known as Wall St.
I would argue Kennedy was a great President, and Reagan too, they at least had some morals and did want to do the best for their country as they could.
No President is perfect, and governing a large complex country is no easy task. Positive results are had to achieve with so many bickering interests.
But that does not mean the holder of the office should completely lose track of what is right and wrong, and deny justice, and pervert the law, and allow pervasive systemic corruption - which Clinton, GWB and Obama have all done. Those last 3 had vacum instead of morals and common sense, and allowed the corruption to grow and fester.
If you want to see the sorry state America has fallen to today, see this (Warning: will anger you!):
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/did-felons-get-a-free-pass-in-the-financial-crisis/
"Did Felons Get a Free Pass in the Financial Crisis?" (ANSWER: YES!!!)
"More than three years after the one of the worst financial crises in U.S. history, the government has been severely criticized for its failure to criminally prosecute senior executives at the Wall Street banks that helped cause the meltdown. Have the feds been soft on banking execs? Are laws on the books inadequate for holding people criminally accountable? Has the Department of Justice been too timid or too intimidated by the complexity of the potential misconduct? Or is it the case that actions of the individuals who caused the crisis were potentially reckless and immoral, but not unlawful? Does the lack of prosecutions reflect a weakness in our system of justice? Or does it demonstrate the strength of a system that has resisted the political pressure to scapegoat executives who may have committed no crimes?"
Thanks GAW that is exactly my point. Japanese arrogance did cost them dearly, but look at Tokyo now as compared to Detroit. It's not really a fair comparison as Seattle is still a gleaming city. Mammoth can probably comment more on the actual state of Seattle. Orlando is using eminent domain to completely change downtown. The West side was shanty town and now there are plans for a complete levelling and remake of the area surrounding the Amway Arena where the Magic play. I hear it is beautiful, but I have never gone there as I think prices are too high and I don't care much for basketball. Where the money will come from I do not know. We already have so much empty commercial buildings downtown and highrise condos.
The criminal supporting deniers are still out there in the MSM, pretending the Banksters have done nothing wrong:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/san-francisco-foreclosure-audit-elicits-predictable-responses-from-securitization-mess-deniers.html
"Given the existence of a large and still for the most part very well remunerated mortgage industrial complex, it is not surprising that a investigation done by a mere county that found errors in virtually all the loans in a small sample of foreclosures created a hue and cry.
While state attorney general Kamala Harris remarked that, “The allegations are deeply troubling and, sadly, no surprise to homeowners and law enforcement officials in California,” and Nancy Pelosi wrote to ask Eric Holder to take a look, the securitization problem deniers went to assault mode. Paul Jackson came close to having a heart attack on Twitter, apparently hoping that rapid burst ad hominem attacks would mask his lack of a substantive argument, and also distract from the fact that he had yanked a straight up the center account on the audit by one of his best reporters, Jon Prior."
More from the above link:
"When the robosigning scandal broke, I recall seeing Barry Ritholtz on a financial TV show, in which the other interviewees were arguing “Well, this really can’t be that bad, only a few people lost their homes due to a mistake.” Barry got close to apoplectic, cited an example of an erroneous foreclosure, and said, “This should never happen.” We had a system in place that was slow and deliberate because a roof over one’s head is a basic safety need, and if people have invested a lot to make sure they aren’t at the mercy of a landlord, they expect that if they meet their end of the deal, and make good faith efforts to perform if they suffer a major economic reversal, that the law will protect them. We’ve now learned that the idea of equal protection under the law is a joke, even for homes, which have long been, as Levitin stresses, treated as a special category.
I got a call from an attorney in Texas who has done both class action and title clearing for oil and gas rights deals (hence he’s seen MERS up close and ugly) having a Howard Beale moment over the mortgage settlement. He said he was convinced if the settlement went through, it would be seen as the day when property rights were shown to have no meaning and it would eventually lead to social upheaval. I’m not sure many people in the heartlands will react as viscerally as he did, but when you undermine the foundations of a society or to use the Biblical metaphor, sow the wind, you can expect to harvest a whirlwind."
Sure wreck the economy through theft and create no crime. The profiteers are in the hundreds, while the victims are in the millions.
I still find it amazing that the movie Network made in the late 1970's is as real today as it was back then. The owners of this country have only tightened their noose around the American people and spread their financial disease all over the world.
I don't know how Obama sleeps at night, honestly, as even if you just take the money from the Banksters you must know in your heart that they are corrupt and have no morals and ethics at all - whatever you may say in public.
Unless he really has no conscience or morals himself, which seems rather hard to believe for a father with young children - has he never thought of what kind of world his children will reach adulthood in?
For by his actions, since the day he took office, Obama has done nothing but provide cover for the criminal financial terrorists of Wall St every day, in every possible way.
If he is really that morally vacuous and can't see the consequences of his actions on the future course of his nation (cover for corruption and it only grows!) - then the USA is about doomed - they say a country gets the ledership they deserve.
Not tha the present crop of Republican candidates are any better, they are in fact far worse than Obama (hard to believe, I know), as they all claim to be "religious", yet completely ignore th basic teachings of the religion they claim to be so devout in - like the Ten Commandments.
The M-F Global scandal, still revealing ever more systemic corruption and Bankster crimes almost daily, as so well documented by Jesse and others, is just another glaring example of the pervasive systemic corruption that has spread like cancer from the Wall St root.
When you uallow things like this to happen, and no one goes to jail while criminal Banksters skate away with customer assets, you are only proving once more that the criminals have won, and there is no jsutice or justice system left.
Which only points to further decline for America, in every way, as a nation run by oligarchic fascist kleptocrats whose only motivation and plan is vast personal greed and looting - will fall apart, as the rot can only spread.
When your "leaders" and "elites" are so fundamentally corrupt and morally vacuous, why should anyone below them behave any differently.
as cl puts it so well:
"Moral-We must receive AND give or we eventually become 'deadened' inside. Would that all in positions of leadership could understand that concept. Perhaps instead of lining their own pockets they would understand the huge responsibility of leadership they hold..."
All major religions I am aware of would likely be against the kind of criminal behaviour that is par for the course today - as they all preach having strong moral values, that would be be in direct opposition to the decisons made by Wall St & Washington the last few decades.
And it is not only the US Banksters who ran amok, so did the UK based ones, and the EUropeans too - all contributed to this Great Financial Crisis in their own ways - proving greed and corruption know no borders.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/farrell-sentiment-index
mugabe- have a look at that sentiment Index, quie interesting:
"We also ran a
scenario analysis and every time the MACD moved 2 standard deviations above trend (Feb 1st), the subsequent returns for the S&P were -.04% 1 month later,
-1.66% 3 months later, -13.49% 6 months later, and -18.55% 12 months
later. Conversely, there
also appears to a decent buy signal -.4 when bearishness gets too extreme, but at present we are a ways away from that level."
One to keep an eye on for general trend reading.
Barry at Big Picture:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/stock-market-rallies-since-1900/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/rallies-following-30-bear-corrections-1900-present/
Good discussion in the comments at both of those links.
I tried to record Barry Middleton and it got erased as Yvonne "over records" and a dvr has limited space. As a result it will just erase the newest shows to make room for more recordings.
I saw a small snippet on CNBC.com, but he was relegated to a 4 screen panel that they rotate so as to control content. He was unable to get anything out other than to try and answer the inane questions he was given.
Washington DC has been so corrupted that the same psychopathic personalities run the show there in concert with Wall Street and then they export these values all over the world. There is no rule of law left and the terrorist banksters know that. No one could ever have imagined what carnage they would do. From Nixon to Obama they have all had a part in dismantling the United States of America. The turning them into a bunch of mindless zombies walking around looking at their newest electronic gadgetry. I have given up caring and hope. It is all just about survival now.
See the addition to the blog as Janet Tavoli's book is free for two days from Amazon and can be read on your computer. You don't need a Kindle. it break the whole criminal enterprise down starting with Hank Paulson's bailout.
Now granted this is nothing much new to us, but the details in which she lays them out are fascinating and I cannot stop reading, but to only refer you to this free access.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100015053/icelands-viking-victory/
"Congratulations to Iceland.
Fitch has upgraded the country to investment grade BBB – with stable outlook, expecting government debt to peak at 100pc of GDP.
The OECD's latest forecast said growth will be 2.4pc this year, after 2.9pc in 2011.
Unemployment will fall from 7pc last year to 6.1pc this year and then 5.3pc in 2013.
The current account deficit was 11.2pc in 2010. It will shrink to 3.4pc this year, and will be almost disappear next year.."
Stiff the Banksters and win.
Janet does great work, and her book would be a great gift to some of those who deny there were any financial irregularities going on. Cool to give it away free.
But it will probably make you angry and cynical reading too much of it.
The details are just that ugly.
If you read the comments at the aboe link on Iceland, there are several Icelandic residents who post a story of hard times for the average people, not as rosy as the statistics show.
But their economy will recover, as their national financial health is much better. Certainly they will recover long before EUrope, who continue to still deny they have a problem.
GAW,
Thanks but i'm not particularly convinced by that. I know bash on about these a lot but I find the weekly MACD of the SPY, the weekly RSI of the SPY and the number of stocks above 150 may ma more useful. They're much more closely related to price and they don't involve having to establish differences betweek ma based on a derivate of sentiment which may or may not have predictive power.
This is am interesting long-yerm look at silver:
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2012/02/silver-ripe-for-trading-again.html
I think mammoth will like it! Sort of chimes with my post on silver a few days back but from a much longet term perspective.
What I mean is that when the financial storm hits your country, there is no alternative to a hard landing in the economy. You simply have to align Government spending with taxes coming in. A deficit cannot be maintained forever, or you get to where Greece is now.
So pretending that all is well, and that default cannot happen when a credit bubble bursts is simply irrational faith based economics.
There is only one way to fix the problem: cut spending and/or raise taxes. It's really not that hard to figure out, except that politics gets in the way.
Rampant money printing to prevent the dam breaking has gotten the global economy to where we are now, so presuming that simply more of the same will fix the problem only validates Eintein's famous quote.
GAW,
To calrify:
I'm not v concinced about the sentiment indicator, am completely convinced about Iceland.
Here's a lnog-term look at gold. The first chart is especially userful:
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2012/02/the-bullish-move-in-gold-isnt-over.html
BULL ON!
Good post here about the enrgy sector. I'm gonna have me some OIH: Market Vectors Oil Services
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2012/02/energy-shares-start-to-show-relative-strength.html
"find the weekly MACD of the SPY, the weekly RSI of the SPY and the number of stocks above 150 may ma more useful"
so what are they usefully sayinhg these days, just curious?
I think as a trader, you just gather as much info as possible. You have your core of favorite indicators or analysis types, and then you can look at other things as well. When they start lining up to suggest a market turn, the more that point to that the more attention you should be paying.
I'm not saing to sell the position immediately, but watch it more closely with a tight stop.
You will notice that when you look back on the longer term charts the market turns are shown by the indicators, in a somewhat lagging fashion of course. But comparing the levels at which the turns did come shows that on many charts it is around the same levels, and you can use those as your warninbg zones in today's trades.
That is how I rank the usefulness of an indicator - did it mark the market turn and how closely.
The weekly amcd is daying that the bull still has ways to run: no sign of exhaustion. The RSI is saying that we're nowhere near overbought levels that mean tops. And the stocvks above the 150 day ma average chart is showing no signs of rolling over, which means that the bull is still well and truly on . it usually shows weakness before the downturn.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9091883/China-eases-credit-as-property-prices-slide.html
"Average home prices fell for a fourth month in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. None of the country's top 70 cities saw price rises. Housing starts have fallen by 25pc and inventories have reached 30pc.
Yao Wei from Societe Generale said the downturn was likely to send "shockwaves" through the industry chain. Power generation, infrastructure investment, as well as property, all contracted more deeply than expected in January, even adjusted for the timing of China's Lunar Year. Imports contracted 22.5pc, and M2 money supply growth fell to 12.4pc.
Data from China Securities Journal shows that electricity consumption fell 7.5pc in January from a year earlier, a steeper decline than during the outset of the Great Recession...
..The property sector accounts for 13pc of GDP, comparable to Spain at the peak of its bubble. Credit in China has increased by almost 100pc of GDP over the last five years, largely due to the lending blitz unleashed after the Lehman collapse.
The credit boom ranks as the biggest of any major country since the Second World War, exceeding the pace of loan growth during the US sub-prime bubble.
Communist officials now think the country over-reacted in 2008-2009, flooding the economy with indiscriminate credit..."
LOL
I find weekly MACD and the 150 day ma charts very useful for signally bottoming activity, and all 3 especiallyuseful for topping activity on the SPY.
They won't nail the top to the day, but they'll tell you're in the latter part of a bull move and it's a good idea to lighten up.
i agrre 100% with what you say:
I think as a trader, you just gather as much info as possible. You have your core of favorite indicators or analysis types, and then you can look at other things as well. When they start lining up to suggest a market turn, the more that point to that the more attention you should be paying.
In my case, my time frame for trades is weeks and months (if they go right), not day and weeks. (I'm not talknig about the short-term ma/MACD system I'm trailling which can have a much shorter time frame.)
The analyst is Bullish at the StockChrts silver link above:
"With all the press centering in upon Gold gains recently +10%, Silver has risen by +19% - thereby outperforming the yellow metal by +9%. Silver - the poor man's good; now looks rather ripe for trading once again. This is as it should be in a metals bull market - silver should always outperform gold. And the manner in which the technicals are shaping up in both absolute and relative terms - we should see both gold and silver move to new highs and not return to the lows forged on 12/30/11 at $1567 and $27.88 respectively."
Literary interlude:
THis is a famous short story which shows that things are worth what you think they are:
http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/Neck.shtml
10 minute read.
Have a look at my 3 Year charts for GWG.V for example. They show what I am talking about:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GWG.V&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26704394510
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GWG.V&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31738596493
The abvoe 2 ae Daily, the 1st with shrter term EMAs and the 2nd longer with BBS, the 2 below are Weekly with the same setup:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GWG.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29161615840
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GWG.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55752341357
btw, the PPO does include the MACD and the MACDh is the colored bar graphic shown in the PPO panel, so it is almost 3 indicators in one, and when you put them all together like that, the accuracy increases.
My reading of those charts is long term GWG looks it may be about to break out of it's long Bearish slump from 1.23, as after the recent rally to 0.68 it has corrected to 0.59 but is no where near a top yet, looking at where the indicators I show there are now, relative to where a trend ended in the past.
"In my case, my time frame for trades is weeks and months (if they go right), not day and weeks"
Good point, but I'm not sure it really matters, only the reference points do, not the general approach to trading. You still have to have the discipline to stick to your trading plan and trust the evidence you see before your eyes, putting your biases aside as much as you can.
My charts for $SILVER, Weekly, the 1st with shorter term EMAs and the 2nd longer term EMAs with BBS:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31109078571
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66756694230
They suggest a correction short term but then possible up movement within a longer term rally, but price still has to pass 35.70 then 44.28 to 49.82... which is still a big mountain to climb...
The chart by Richard Rhodes atill shows the larger downtrend from 49.82 is still on, despite his rosy conclusion - notice the last "Bullish Consolidation" he points to in '09 coincided with financial crisis and ended at the bottom of his own long term channel there, which would put the low in silver this time out at about $13...
So, for silver, getting the price to stay above 35.70 and even better $37 for a week or more would go a long way towards breaking out of that downchannel he shows on the very long term chart
The price can cross the 110 Weekly MA as well, which suggests this correction could have a little further to run before the upwards move resumes...
Or the larger down channel remains in place, and the real low will be around $13....
So I would not go all in on silver right now, as if Greece defaults this week etc it may not be Bullish for the price, as during '08/'09. But as I hve said before, if you don't have any, now could be a good time to buy some.
I forgot to add on the GWG comment an important point:
IF you bought it recently at near 0.30, you probably should have had a trailing stop set and would have been stopped out in the lower 0.60s range, for a near clean double.
IF you don't own any now, I would watch it closely and let this correction run it's course before entering, which the MACDh there on the Daily chart suggests may be another few days to a week or more.... when it looks close to cross the 0 line upwards again...
"As with its cousin, MACD, the Percentage Price Oscillator is shown with a signal line, a histogram and a centerline. Signals are generated with signal line crossovers, centerline crossovers and divergences. Because these signals are no different than those associated with MACD...based on the 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 26-day EMA...A 9-day EMA of PPO is plotted as a signal line to identify upturns and downturns in the indicator."
Love the posts from GAW and CL re Harry!
My 3 Year Weekly chart of OIH:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16871510032
Looks like it could indeed be on a long term run up, which could set a price of around $50-$60 or higher, if it can get above 45.12 now.
NOTE - When reeading the PPO on StockCharts, the solid black line is the calculated number of the indicator itself and it's slope up or down is very important, the purple line is the reference 9 Day EMA singal line and the black crossing it up or down is important. The blue bars in the background are the MACDh pictogram which is based on MACD, and the light blue number at top left is the present actual MACD number.
Shaza - how are you and all Down Under?
It's till winter here, but the sun gets stronger by the day, it will be over soon. Actually the warmish late winer days are very pleasant, as the air is so clear you can see forever almost. Warmish by Canadian standards of course, +5 C or so, which brings out shorts and has convertible tops down - in Aussie if it got that cold you would all probably go huddle indoors.
mugabe - great story there, thanks! Many morals to that one. And could make a good joke too, in a short version.
Winer days are when we drink wine of course. hic.
No reason why you can't make a winter day a winer day. If one glass of red is good for you, a few must be just superb.
And I don't even drink wine.
GAW,
Re GWG.V, I concur with you. Short -term wait the the daily MACD crossover. Longer-term, it looks v. interesting. Thanks for the heads up.
ME: "In my case, my time frame for trades is weeks and months (if they go right), not day and weeks"
GAW: Good point, but I'm not sure it really matters, only the reference points do, not the general approach to trading. You still have to have the discipline to stick to your trading plan and trust the evidence you see before your eyes, putting your biases aside as much as you can.
ME: That's true. The point i was trying to make is if your time fremwrok is lobger-term, you won't het freaked out over a DAILY MACD crossover per se, but if it's shorter-term you might well do.
Yes I like the story too Mugabe and found the PPO explanation interesting as well. Shaza times were so different before TV. It's almost as if the 24 hour Cable news shows knows who will win based on polls. Also everything is under a microscope and a POTUS seems to be influenced by the polls as well as his special interest groups. He is also blamed for everything that goes wrong.
The more I read Janet's book the more it infuriates me just as you said it would. These people make Enron execs look like choir boys.
Well the Asian markets started PM trading going straight up. Too early to tell what that really means.
Post a Comment