“O accursed hunger of gold, to what dost thou not compel human hearts!” – Virgil"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights." - Alan Greenspan"Gold is not necessary. I have no interest in gold. We'll build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration. That's the bastion of money." - Adolf Hitler"If you give a woman a gold ring, she's going to be very happy. If you give her one made of paper, I don't think you'll get very far." - Peter Schiff"If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a beautiful pine tree, worth about $4,000 - $5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp and then paper, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?" - Kenneth J. Gerbino
As 2011 comes to a close, gold bulls are spending more time on the defensive. It amazes us just how quickly some people seem to lose conviction in their investment ideas just because the price moves against you. Over the last month, for those who don’t follow such things, the price of gold has dropped from over $1700 at the end of November to a current price of roughly $1,535, and many newspapers and investment letters wondered aloud if gold’s “bubble” had burst. Against this backdrop, we thought we would use the last Bottom Line of 2011 to tell our readers why we think this price drop is a tremendous buying opportunity in the precious metals space, burst a few misconceptions about the metal, and remind people why they are in this trade (or should be!) in the first place. We’ve also included a couple of pretty charts.
The question most people are asking us these days is why is gold dropping? There are several culprits that we can identify, and probably many that we can’t. The first is the recent strength in the US dollar relative to the euro and other currencies. All else being equal, when the dollar goes up, dollar-denominated assets will go down.
Iceland fared better than us by letting its banks fail
Monday January 02 2012
ICELAND pursued better policies than Ireland or Latvia when the three countries' economies collapsed in 2007 because the Reykjavik government allowed banks to fail, according to a new report by the influential Bruegel think tank.
The report by economist Zsolt Darvas looked at the response of the three small and open economies. The three countries all initially allowed the credit boom to fuel property speculation and investment imbalances. As the crisis began, property prices fell, banks went bust and all three countries had to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help.
The governments then introduced fiscal austerity programmes, structural reforms and reforms of the banking system. These similarities allow economists to compare the different responses in an attempt to determine what worked best.
"The experience with the collapse of the gigantic Icelandic banking system suggests that letting banks fail when they had a faulty business model can be the right choice," the report notes.
20 comments:
"Why is Gold dropping?"
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This must be an old post. Gold's correction is SO last year, and we are headed to the moon now.
Or so, some folks may think.
But I am wary and believe this is just a sucker's rally.
-Mammoth
Apologies to all for yesterday's double-post. Google choked on that one so I re-sent it, should've checked afterwards.
Mammoth,
Are you selling gold today? I ask as you're the ultimate contrary indicator?
s novim godom!!
Mugabe,
Nope - not selling any today. Although, if I did I would make a profit over what I paid for it.
с новым годом!
You see, the problem is when PM’s spiked, i.e. Gold @ $1,900 & Silver @ $49, I did not want to sell because I thought the price would just continue to go up. It was a combination of both greed and emotions which held me back. Listening to the Gold & Silver bugs didn’t help, either.
Per Shaza one needs to set aside all emotions when trading. Easier said than done, though.
this is not a plea for advice. It IS simply fact. I'm getting money from my t-notes as they come do. There is NO sense in my continuing to buy a 2 yr. note at .24% interest and tying up my money. IMO better to sit in cash even if I gain nothing.
That said, I feel in my gut that I will get some sort of signal by July. Why July? Well, after the new year euphoria passes and the 'real' numbers for retail, etc. come in PLUS the increase in gas (one Philly refinery to close even if the Iranians don't rattle their sabers) then the Euro problem continues, not to mention all the shills telling us to buy bank stocks as they are due to run up...well, I figure the market will have to decide which way it is going and signal something by then. Plus you have the election (already sick of that!)
IMO the market is still too pumped up and unrealistic as to earnings...but I think people WILL come back in the beginning of this year because they are all sheep and easily led astray for the wolves to gnaw.
I would like to buy more physical gold but I think that price will drop as well. IF I was going to trade and gamble I would listen to Louise Yamada. She seems to read technicals without bias. Course, IF I'd followed my gut and Jim Rogers in 2007 I'd be in much better shape than I am now.
That said, my fire is going, I'm warm, my homemade spaghetti sauce is simmering away, and my Spartacus/Khachaturian is playing on my CD player while I read SNUFF by Pratchett. Life isn't all bad ;-)
Why don't you try Paladin Fund that just opened up. GAW, Mugabe and I were very impressed with his blog Fund my Mutual Fund and he is on the Queens Link List to the left. Something to consider not advice. CD's in the bank are paying .25 for 1 year.
Mammoth I saw it and deleted it, but the same thing happened to me on that same day when the cat jumped on my mouse hand. Of course I deleted it immediately so no one would have seen. It happens.
It is very cold in Orlando. 46F and going down into the 30s possibly high 20s tonight. That should be a warm day in Canada or Minnesota.
The POG and Silver jumping today is why I never believe in conspiracies that JPM or other nefarious people are shorting it to keep the price down. They would have gone broke a long time ago.
GAW look at Benton Resources (I am sure you do) up 12.5% today. CL Tocqueville Gold at 74 is a very good buy IMHO. I bought at 82 and I have sold it at 90.00. My original buy was at 56.00 in December of 2009 and sold at 82.00. Then rebought it at 82 to see it run up to 92 then down to 69.00 now it is moving back up. John Hathaway manages the fund.
And btw it also pays a dividend in December so that was an extra 120.00.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16392922
For all the gold believers out there..
NicholasDarvas, if you look at the bottom it says, "made in china."
From the end of Jesse's post today. "I read somewhere today that sociopaths and psychos in business are not a problem because people just shun them eventually so the market is naturally self-policing and self-correcting. Ah, if only this pretty piece of idealism was the case. Of course it is just another variation of the efficient markets hypothesis . This used to be a favorite argument of Bill Buckley and William Rickenbacker when they used to discuss the issue of market regulation. Anyone who has been in security or fraud investigation knows it is utter nonsense.
Conmen are like cockroaches. And the better class of white collar crooks are exceptionally devious and manipulative, and often set up sinecures and monopolies that are rather long-lived in addition to their various frauds which are easily replicated and recycled from place to place.
But people keep drifting back to the assumption that information is symmetric and transparent, markets inherently fair, and most people are good. Like a dog returns to its vomit, so idealists and the deluded return to the natural goodness of business and markets to justify some of the most outrageous howlers of arguments over and over again."
The man is simply spot on day after day.
HMMMM...the market opened way up and then petered out, consolidating and moving prices somewhat lower. The large gap up probably was related to the rally on the European FTSE that was in progress when the U.S. market opened. The gap up didn't seem to excite enough to push stocks higher much after.
thanks queen. I may look into both. COLD here. 17 for tonight. Brrr.
Silver on a weekly chart looks very bad, still headed down...
It reached my 25 target that I sent to TommyJr ( or close enough), had a nice bounce from oversold ...
It was a good short term trade, but must see it really get its TA House in order for me to think of buying it...
For now, long term trend is down, intermediate is still ongoing...still shortable most likely...tight stops on short or ZSL
Shaza I have to agree I am not bullish on Silver.
Corporate and Political Pschpaths make the world go 'round...
They cause havoc, chaos and do untold damage to families, economies and people...They are not harmless and rarely shunned at those levels. Look at the ex CEO of Sunbeam...to manipulate stock prices he shot down little towns all over America. Forbes called him a Psychopath, confirmed by Dr Hare. Those town never came back...he lives in a mansion in Flaorida and still wrecks lives I am guessing...this is a tale told over and over...low level corp psychopaths may be shunned, but do you see Bill Clinton being shunned? He meets Hare's PCLR criteria..
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