The U.S. Census Bureau reported Tuesday that the nation's homeownership rate fell to 66% in the fourth quarter, continuing a seven-year drop from a fourth-quarter peak of 69.2% in 2004.
At the same time, U.S. home prices fell 1.3% in November from October and were 3.7% below 2010 levels, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index indicates.
Falling homeownership — and prices — reflect the the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression. And while there are signs that the housing industry's downturn may at least be nearing a bottom, the impact of the collapse will be evident for years to come, economists say.
As of November, average U.S. home prices were back to mid-2003 levels, S&P says.
"Americans are less keen on homeownership knowing now that prices can fall," says Paul Dales, economist with Capital Economics.
Even if people want to own a home, they may not be able to, given the difficulty in getting financing for a mortgage, Dales says. The National Association of Realtors says many purchase contracts appear to be falling through for that reason.
Many economists expect home prices to continue to fall this year and maybe into next year before stabilizing and then showing little or no appreciation for some time.
"The trend is down, and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand," says David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee.
Phoenix was the only city in Case-Shiller's 20-city index where home prices rose in November from October. They were up 0.6%.
On a year-over-year basis, only two cities showed rising values. Detroit was up 3.8%, and Washington, D.C., 0.5%, the Case-Shiller data show.
Australia House Prices Fall More Than Forecast on Weaker Melbourne Values
It is a long way from 40% predicted but heh, a drop of 4% may be the
beginning....who knows! Sydney house prices actually rose this month! Shaza
Australian house prices plunged by the most on record in 2011 as global economic uncertainty and concerns about its impact at home kept a lid on demand.
An index measuring the weighted average of prices for established houses in eight major cities slid 4.8 percent from a year earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the biggest calendar-year drop since the data began in March 2002. They fell 1 percent in the three months to December from the previous quarter, when they retreated a revised 1.9 percent. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was a 0.6 percent quarterly fall.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens lowered the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Nov. 1 and again on Dec. 6 as inflation pressures eased and global growth risks increased. Australia recorded its worst annual job growth in 19 years in 2011, as consumers boosted savings, and traders are pricing in a 60 percent chance of another cut next week.
“Much of the price moderation of late is occurring at the top end,”Stephen Walters, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief economist in Australia who forecast a 1.2 percent drop, said in a research report before today’s release. “The monthly data suggest the housing market received a small tailwind from the RBA’s November and December rate cuts. We expect prices to track close to flat over 2012.”
New Home Sales
Sales of new homes fell a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent in December, with detached house sales dropping 7.7 percent, a separate report from the Housing Industry Association showed.
36 comments:
And so it goes as the American Dream is now laying dead in the ditch. The next generation will become lifetime renters and debtors. Bankster's mission accomplished. George Bush should hang a banner on Wall Street.
QB,
That chart I posted on the last thread is silver vs gold, not silver on its own. Realtive to gold, it looks like it's basing with positive indicator action.
Having said that, silver is too volatile for my liking to have as a store of value except in extrmely small quantities. Something that almost triples in the space of a few months and then loses almost half its value in the next few months doesn't seem like a very stable place to park money. I'm aware that others around here don't share that opinion!
I like gold more for that reason as it is inherently less volatile: less downside risk and, of course, less upside ootential.
There has been discussion here about investing in gemstones. Is anyone familiar with Alexandrite, which was first discovered in 1834, in the Urals?
The amazing feature with this stone, is its unique ability to change color. Green or bluish-green in daylight, Alexandrite turns a soft shade of red in incandescent light. This unique optical characteristic makes it one of the most valuable gemstones of all, especially in fine qualities.
My Russian mother-in-law has an Alexandrite ring her husband gave her in 1970. The single stone is around 1½ carats. Ten years ago, she let me take it to one of those traveling “sell us your gold & jewelry” outfits. The person who examined the stone became very excited when I told him its history; he went and brought in the most senior person in the group, and together they closely scrutinized it under a microscope.
Finally, this person handed me back the ring and told me the stone was just too perfect to be natural; that it had to be a fake, or it would be worth $10,000. But the technology to produce such perfect stones, with the unique color-changing quality of natural Alexandrite – was not there in 1970. And also, let’s just say that BAD things happened to folks who were caught selling expensive fakes of anything, in Russia back then! (Unlike now, where selling fake everything is the norm over there.)
If that ring was worth $10K ten years ago, then it is probably worth around twice that amount today. Perhaps we should have it appraised by an expert?
As a follow-up to my previous post, here is an article about the increasing value of diamonds.
Linkey: http://tinyurl.com/7jl7q9j
Mugabe I agree with your analysis of gold vs silver. Mammoth try another appraiser it can't hurt. Here is another site that I think GAW brought up and they have auctions and rare diamonds have done quite well over the years. http://www.rarecoloreddiamonds.com/
Also Mugabe you must have gotten the Tischendorf Letter and he was spot on those two stocks. As soon as that letter went out both stocks jumped and both are at the top of my watch list DNN and UEXCF on in the US markets.
Mammoth I was invited to an auction earlier in the month and completely forgot. I would have liked to see what prices these rare stones were commanding. http://www.hsfineauctions.com/upcoming_auctions.aspx
Hmm,
Just seem that UEX jumped. Nice, but as I've got only $1,000 in it I can't retire!
I think his point re utranium is medium term rather than a quick pop (nice as it is).
Mugabe,
Yes he was the second interview that was stating that uranium is due for a move up.
Mugabee:
It isn't just the stones, it is also the SETTINGS. I have a bracelet set in platinum that was my mother's that was HER mother's.
Also as my 'German' ancestry had several jewelers, the engagement rings in the 'old' days that have been passed down have the delicate white gold settings and high quality diamonds. I have a beautiful filagree necklace with three tiny round tiers each holding a graduated ruby. Now these are 'pinkish' rubies and this is 'old gold' (whether 18k or 14k, I'm not sure.)
This is why these BRING YOU GOLD, SILVER, FINE JEWELRY business is fraught with con artists. They will rob you blind. The older jewelry is worth more and has far higher grades (usually) of jewels and gold.
But that's just my opinion.
okay, I have a question. Why would anyone invest in a company when they have no intention of opening their books to the public to show what kind of PROFIT they are making? Isn't that like buying the proverbial 'pig in a poke?'
Just wondering...like I vocally WONDERED why the idiot in front of me today couldn't see the green light cause he was too busy on his cell phone.
After a day paying property tax, paying dog/cat license of $20; running to try to get our yet-not-received W-2 from hubby's former employer (mailed, they said yesterday), transferring money at bank to pay taxes and license; and going grocery shopping...let's just say that I'm wondering about a LOT of stuff!
This was sent to me from Shaza. It could probably be a part of a post, but so many members are bandwidth challenged so I put in the comments.
Jim Rogers: I Would Not Buy Facebook
CL it was Mammoth asking about stones not Mugabe. Personally I have no interest in Facebook. I am expecting the same action as Linked In had.
CL it was Mammoth asking about precious stones not Mugabe. I sure hope Paladin works out for you. Moving along I have no interest in Facebook. I am expecting the same action as Linked In had.
I am a little disappointed that I didn't pay attention to the Tischendorf Letter about uranium and let it sit in my in box until it was too late. However, uranium will have its day and I will probably not have a share of stock in a company that mines it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09126803428
My version of the (just) SLV, mugabe is trying to confuse you with the comparison chart, they are hard to read.
He is quite right about silver and volatility, but that is the way it goes: went from $7 to $20+, a triple, then corrected viciously back to under $9 - what they call a "long term investment" if you forgot to sell and take profit. Then went from $18 to $50 more recently and then back down to around $26.... can you see a pattern here?
Not for those who get anxious. And a heartbreaker. But if you don't own some, you'll wish you did when it hits $75 or $150 or whatever.
But thanks for the tip on the uraniums, though I did not buy any. I am working day shift, and can't really trade during market open hours, no internet access.
Could be a good run on the U miners after such an epic Bear market of the last year +, they were running out of steam before the Japanese disaster but that finished them off as a sector for a long time. Even now I am sure many will not buy them again.
But the odds and mean reversion are on your side at this point.
I don't know anything about Alexandrite, but it does sound interesting.
As chicken little points out, you have to be careful when you sell anything gold or precious these days, there are indeed many of these "Gold Buyers" who will buy it for a great price (for them, not you).
Yes, having it appraised by an expert is good, if you can find an honest one who won't give it a low price and then try to buy it. A fine auction house like Sotheby's style might be best, as the are not interested in underpricing an item, more the other way.
Looking at the SLV Weekly chart that I linked above, it does look like the grey metal is trying to get out of the old downtrend, but has not made it there yet.
Price needs to pass 34.44 and then 42.78 to challenge the old high of 48.35, these are Weekly average closing numbers, not intra-day.
RSI passed 50 upwards, and MACD/PPO having bottomed and now crossed 0 upwards - are all good signs.
The key question is can it keep going above those key levels, which are just ahead now, or does the downtrend remain proven by their rejection.
Stay tuned to this shiny channel.
One of the articles in tomorrow's post is from Financial Sense about a coming paradigm shift in silver. Silver to me is not fun. When I sell, I feel like it will go to 150 and when I hold, I feel like it will go back to 20. Go figure. When in doubt I don't do anything. I sold those rounds as a favor to my brother and I felt good. When I sold the ASE anniversary set I had regrets. Both were great profits so I have to keep that in perspective.
Oh Oh not again and this time even closer to you Mammoth.
From Washinton's Blog Radioactive Leak at California Nuclear Power Plant
Sorry, doh, I was looking at the KOl chart in another tab, disregard those price numbers for silver Daily
Correct prices to watch in silver are:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36364630437
34.44 then 42.78, and then on to 48.35
And the October trade went from 27.0 to 34.44 and was more clearly signaled than the recent 25.65 bottom to 33.70 - so as I said making it above 42.78 is possible, but I am not convinced on that.
Most likely it hits 40-42 and stalls, which puts the downtrend still in play...
It's a definite maybe at this point.
KOL you could say about the same thing, it has made a low of 27.03 in Oct, and may be on for a good rally now, but has not confirmed that yet.
Can it punch above $40 now, maybe, or it's still in a downtrend.
But to get on board around $30 you would have needed a clear Buy signal in Dec, which was not apparent at the time - so that weakens the case for this rally.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79284860671
3 year chart of KOL, the coal ETF from the spelling challenged.
The future could be dark and sooty, much like the smoke.
If China slows down more, so will coal demand, in the macro picture, so it would be a trade, not an investment, at this time.
All of the above stock market related information is not investment advice, nor does it contain any recommendation to buy and sell any security. IMHO ;)
Hey, the Government says a "tiny amount of radiation" escaped, and I always believe every word they say, don't you>
There is absolutely NO, and I repeat, NO, cause for alarm here folks.
So reassuring.
Paradigm?
Is that like when the modality of silver price discovery fails to synergise with the expected appreciation vector?.
Or, when the paradigm becomes the go-to baseline reference template for a positive harmonious balance?
"All that is there is Grizzly Bears, Moose and mounted police.'
Not true, we have coyotes and deer, lots of 'em. And lots of cold beer, too.
But our igloos blend into the landscape hard to spot, just like our teepees in Summer.
Hold on, I have to go feed a few more cow chips into the wood stove.
Our Grizzly Bear is just David Rosenberg, out in the woods trying to relieve himself of too much fine Canadian beer.
We do make good beer here, actually. And wine.
I ashure you!
hic
chicken little asks - "Why would anyone invest in a company when they have no intention of opening their books to the public to show what kind of PROFIT they are making?"
Well, it's because our good friends down at JPM or Goldman or whomever is doing the "underwriting" says it's a good deal, of course. And they should now, being as they "bought" the shares at a much lower price than the public will. Cough.
I assume you are talking about FACEPLANT, err, I mean Facebook, there. Wii they do another LinkedOut (LOL at them, who uses that site these days anyway, so 2011 now).
I'm sure they won't show their books, why, umm, it must be because they are just making so much profit now they just can't keep up with the latest totals. Yeah, that's it.
What other possible reason could there be?
I hear J. Bagholder has already ordered a large position.
My 3 year Daily chart for GLD:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00479861906
Price for GLD (multiply by 10 to get the gold price, or close enough) now at 169.56 needs to pass 175.46 which looks doable, then the high of 185.85 given the elevated indicator levels now showing, getting near to past turning down sort of levels but not yet.
Yet situation was similar last time the high was made, so there is a positive outlook, though it would have been preferable to buy in early Jan when the Buy signal was showing off the Dec low - but a big gap up there, a quick turn around very hard to catch.
Spot price now 1745.10, so this rally will likely break that intermediate resistance, will it have enough gas to make a new high?
Which implies a low in the US $, or lower $ trend, I am not sure it can decouple from the $/Euro risk teeter-totter, until the crisis reaches some sort of resolution point, ahead.
As mugabe points out, gold is a safer trade as the downside is more limited, will the upside be as well..
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/01/861841/the-iron-lady/
"Meet Gina Rinehart.
She’s the richest person in Australia, and if the iron ore price holds, the daughter of Australian mining pioneer, Lang Hancock, could soon be the world’s richest woman — a position currently occupied by the Wal-Mart widow Christy Walton."
Lucky for here she had a Phd (Papa had dough), as her speech there convinces the iron is in her head. Nor was she blessed with looks or wisdom, I'd say.
"We need to learn from and follow Chin a’s and other countries examples of special economic zones, economic zones with less tax and less regulations and that are welcoming to investment and growth."
Spoke like a true 1%er, Sheila. She'd make a good poster for what is wrong with the rich.
Today's funny:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/01/858921/sino-forests-diminishing-returns/
Truly hilarious, with that dry British understated humor.
We See-No-Forest here, pretty much, though there may be some, somewhere, if we could only find a map, but the company assures us there is plenty, I assure you.
LOL
The human cost of Banksterism mixed with too much Government spending:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/wolf-richter-exodus-from-the-eurozone-debt-crisis.html
"Unemployment is a staggering problem in Eurozone countries that are at the core of the debt crisis. Spain’s jobless rate jumped to 22.8%. Among 16 to 24-year-olds, it’s an unimaginable 51.4%, up from 18% in 2008 when Spain’s crisis began with the collapse of its housing bubble. In Greece, youth unemployment reached 46.6%. In Portugal, it’s 30.7%, in Italy 30.1%.
And optimism, that essential source of energy for the younger generation, has been replaced by pessimism. Gallup reported that 80% of the people in the EU had a negative outlook on their local job situation. Crisis countries were at the extreme end of pessimism: in Portugal, 84% thought it was a “bad time” to find a job; in Italy, 91%; in Spain, 92%; in Ireland, 93%; and in Greece, 96%.
These numbers convey a sense of utter hopelessness. For young people, the vision of a good life that their society has imparted on them has gone up in smoke. A bitter irony: it’s the best educated generation ever—and the most pessimistic.
People deal with it the best they can. Some retrench. Even 35-year-olds move back in with their parents. They delay plans and wait for the situation to turn around. But others, the most energetic and entrepreneurial, those that the country needs to rebuild the economy, they don’t have that kind of patience. They pack up and leave to find a job elsewhere. And they are doing it in massive numbers..."
ZH: "US Adds $120 Billion In Debt Since Debt Ceiling Hike On Friday, $310 Billion More On Deck In Next Two Months"
"Remember when the US hiked its debt ceiling on Friday courtesy of a formulaic 52 affirmative votes in the Senate, giving the Treasury $1.2 trillion in dry debt powder to attempt to grow the economy one more time according to the algorithmic fantasies of voodoo priests with pieces of Ivy League parchment on their walls? Well, two days later, the dry powder is less than $1.1 trillion. In other words, in the past two days, total US debt increased by $120 billion, along the lines of our expectations, as the Treasury filled up all the G-fund cash it had pillaged to continue issuing debt throughout the month of January even though it was formally above the debt ceiling. What is more concerning, is that as the chart below shows, the trendline of US debt since the beginning of 2011 is no longer a straight line, but has slowly transformed into a parabola, the very same word used as the root in such other infamous words as, for example, parabolic..."
Para what? Sorry, Obama can't pronounce a word like that. Therefore, the problem cannot exist.
Obanomics in action. We have so much debt, we'll, err, borrow some more to pay it back!
Do not be concerned, the Banksters will have been paid by then, of course:
ZH: "Greece Warns It Will Soon Be In "Condition Of Absolute Poverty""
"And while the bankers (on both sides of the table) haggle about how to best leech Greece even dryer (with a solution due any hour, day, week now), the actual people are starting to wave the white flag of surrender. Because the opportunity cost of every additional coupon payment is having a direct, immediate and increasingly more dire impact on virtually every aspect of the economy. Kathimerini reports that "about 160,000 jobs will be lost this year in the commerce sector...the "ESEE warns that soon Greece will be in a condition of absolute poverty." And that, ladies and gents, is how Europe slowly but surely reentered the Feudal age..."
All hail lord Bankster, the new Viceroy of Greece.
"Valuations for U.S. equities have been stuck below the five-decade average for the longest period since Richard Nixon's presidency, a sign investors don't trust earnings even after a three-year bull market. Analysts estimated profits in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will reach a record $104.78 this year after increasing 125 percent since the end of 2009, the fastest expansion in a quarter century, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. American companies are boosting income so much that even after stocks doubled, the S&P 500 hasn't traded above its 16.4 mean ratio for 446 days, the longest stretch since the 13 years beginning in 1973." bloomberg
BTW, that ratio would mean 1700 on S&P
GAW, the Iron Ore Queen of Aus ( Gina Reinhardt) is a great businesswoman in her own right. Lang Hancock's money does not hurt though. Her dad certainly was the King of Iron Ore.
Anyway, she now owns a huge swag of one of the big media outlets here...move over Rupert....maybe? She has just acquired 14% of Fairfax Media.
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