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And David Morgan at the same location
Keep your eyes open in these markets or something like this picture below could happen to you. Sent in by Mammoth so a hat tip to him. QB
Friday, January 27, 2012
Brent Cook January 22 at Cambridge House Convention
It's been a long time since I found a recent video of Geologist Brent Cook.
And David Morgan at the same location
Keep your eyes open in these markets or something like this picture below could happen to you. Sent in by Mammoth so a hat tip to him. QB
And David Morgan at the same location
Keep your eyes open in these markets or something like this picture below could happen to you. Sent in by Mammoth so a hat tip to him. QB
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59 comments:
James Dines audio interview on KWN
I'm kind of excited as I told you my brother bought 6 AGE last week and now wants to get into silver. I have 30 silver rounds from private mints that are .999 silver copies if Buffalo's, Walking Liberty's and Morgan's that I am letting him have to get a taste at today closing spot of 34.00. I bought these a long time ago for 14.00 so I turn a nice 150% profit and I am reconnecting with him in a way I didn't think would ever happen. Mammoth he is also asking about bulk silver and this is something that I have little experience with, so when the time comes, I will email you.
He seems to like coins over bars. I don't really have a preference. It might be a good idea to send the 20 Canadian Wolves to a PCGS or NGC grading service as it would probably double the offer I was given of 50.00 each. I am sure they would grade at MS69 or MS70.
All said and done with my holdings of gold, silver and mining MF's I made a nice profit this week. I plan to plough the money for the silver back into gold coins. That picture that Mammoth sent was hilarious I just hope no one was hurt or it was a rail bridge.
glad to see you've put mish back on the blog list. you don't have to agree with everything he says. I find him useful on big macro but not on stockmarket calls where his macro affects him too much. He has been very good on treasuries on gold the last few years, though. he's also easy to read.
Queenbee is your brother interested in Junk Silver, or just ASE's & 'Canuk' Silver?
Kudos to you on having converted another person to 'religion.'
While some of my acquaintences see the 'cool-factor' in old silver coins, not one of them has taken the step to assume a more active role investing in these.
Except for Crazy Tatiana, who I posted about recently, and even she seems to have a disdain for these because of the term, 'junk.'
He is interested in the bags of coins 90% silver. Mentioned nothing about ASE or other coins. I will let him make his own choices and just guide him away from bad ones.
Thanks Mugabe I thought readers would appreciate Mish being back on. He is a good macro-analyst.
What's the underlying story on the bridge photo, Mammoth? When I scale it up, (one of the neat things you can do on a Mac) I can't make out any identifying marks on the ship or the surroundings.
I disagree with Biderman on so many points. Primarily because he says "Wall Street did not do this and that."
Wrong, dude! Wall Street bribed the Congriftsmen to pass the laws that Scam Street wanted, so they could blow bubbles and pay themselves huge bonuses from the fake profits. It wasn't low-class home-flippers bamboozling the banks. It was banks that helped deadbeats into fake loans because the banks knew they could package those loans into shit sausage mortgage bonds that they would pass on to unsuspecting suckers in pension funds.
Who runs the Federal Reserve that has bailed out the TBTF banks by expanding its balance sheet via trading "real" money for shit MBS bonds? The Fed's HQ might be in Washington, but the Fed is composed of Wall Street banks. It IS Wall Street that caused the problem, fuckwit! When it's time to put the maggots up against the wall, I call first dibs on shooting this liar Biderman in the eye from close range. I'll wear my rain gear so no brain matter splatters on my shirt. I'm so sick of these dissembling fcukers.
At my work they have 'safety' posters up all over the place called "STARTSMART", which show a funny photo of tragic situations like the boat photo at the top, and a message below about thinking first about what you are doing before you do it, paying attention to danger etc.
One has a giant mining dump truck, upside down, with a grinning crew of miners standing around. Another has a truck that was too tall for an overhead sign on the highway, much like the ship shown. Or a guy who decided to move a large kids swing set with his small car, by tying it, fully assembled to the roof, with one small rope, and the legs of it splayed out 2 lanes wide.
Some people are just dumb as a bag of hammers.
Like the guy I ran into just down the road from my house yesterday, on my way to work: driving a 7-8 year old maybe Montana mini-van, he was flying down this windy gravel road in winter and failed to make the sharp S-bend. The road was ice under a layer of wet slushy snow, and it was very slippery - so genius was going so fast he managed to make it around the first part of the bend, skidding wildly judging by the tire tracks, but lost control and flew right over the ditch and well out into the farmers field on the second part of the S bend.
So I stop to ask if he's OK, he was, but he looked rather, err, non-smart, shall we say. He said he's on the phone to CAA (AAA) for a towtruck, which on a snowy day could take hours, so he asks me if I can pull him out with my pickup. I look, and the front of his mini-van is trashed, grille and bumper broken and falling off, front wheels bent at bad angles, it's probably a write-off, and I would have needed about an 80' rope at least to reach it from the road, and it wouldn't have done him any good anyway, he needed to tow it to a shop. So I said I didn't have any rope, and I had to rush to work, sorry.
I actually had a rope in my truck, and a towing strap, but they would not have been long enough anyway, and with the slippery road I probably wouldn't have been able to get enough traction with my pickup to pull him out. So off to work I went.
When I drove home later that night, I saw tire tracks where at least 4 other vehicles had gone off the road, just on a 5 mile stretch between the paved road and my house.
I give them all 'Special Awards For Excellent Driving Skill, Or Not'.
chicken little - I am sorry to hear about your ongoing health care insurance issues.
I don't know what advice I could give you, other than to shop around as much as you can, as you are doing, and I hope you can find a better deal.
Or you could move to Canada, where these issues are not a concern to individuals in most cases, but are only of general concern in a Government Budget sense. Our health care system has its flaws, but going totally broke paying for care is not one of them.
I don't mind Mish really, I jsut tune him out when he goes on one of his rather irrational rants about how to save the economy by busting all the unions.
Not that I am really a large union supporter, but it's not really their fault we are in this 'Great Financial Crisis', that was caused by Banksters run amok - let's keep things in perspective here.
I can agree that Government workers are generally over-paid and not very productive, and their is room for much less bureaucracy and much more efficiency etc - but that is not why the economy sucks, except as a lesser contributing factor.
But as mugabe says, Mish is very good at longer term big-picture type macro economic analysis, and is usually talking basic common sense on many of those issues.
I stopped commenting on his Blog because I got tired of trying to debate with monetary morons who only wanted to drone on about how a new monetary system would solve all our problems.
Bukko - well said, great comment there!
There is indeed a movement amongst the Banksters and their MSM paid supporters to try and excuse them from any blame for our present sorry economic state.
Biderman is just another lying talking head who is completely full of it, and his sorry excuses bear very little relation to the actual facts of the matter - jst par for the course for a Bankster lover.
He's almost as bad as Jamie Dimon or Lloyd "We're doing God's work here (on Wall St)" Blankfein, etc. - "Of course we deserve large multi-million $ bonuses every year, for screwing the economy and your Pension Fund!"
They should all be swinging from a rope on a lamp post in front of their palatial corporate headquarters, for criminal financial terrorism.
If you are wondering why I continue to lean deflationista, I think Russ Winter of 'Winter Watch Blog' fame, one of my old daily reads, puts it quite well here, on Japan and all the rest:
"Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital"
"The Japanese people have trusted their financial institutions to the government and the trust has been violated. The money is gone and the government is not fiscally responsible. This party is about to end...
Japan is just one insolvent country; there are others. In tandem, the central banks of these nations hold $15 trillion plus in inflated securities, loans and sovereign securities, in one giant Ponzi pool holding increasingly insolvent debt and "liquidity" loans to banks. As defaults and more credit downgrades gather steam (UK, US, France, Germany and others), the markdowns of these $15 trillion will accelerate. It is important to remember that the capital for central banks is provided by the participating govts. For example, this is who backs the tiny $81 billion ECB capital used to lever 2.75 trillion in "assets"...
When central banks (CBs) expand their balance sheets, they buy securities and accept collateral of securities. As such they take risks, especially when defaults occur. And what is the quality of those securities?
These charts are actually dated. The CBs own these markets, use thin capital bases, and are going to be handed the losses on the fictitious capital they hold. Tattoo this on your forehead, CBs hold well over 15 trillion in securities and loans to banks of various and often dubious quality, an immense gamble. These are all ultimately the responsibility of the sponsoring country, and represents a monster contingent liability. That will be the end game."
Also covered on Big Picture Blog.
GAW, I get to deal with many people who have made poor decisions that have gotten them into physical trouble. Admittedly, I see the ones whose ignorance has been so bad that they landed in hospital. But I'm still amazed at how many people are walking around who are so low-IQ that if breathing was not an automatic autonomic function, they would suffocate from heir own stupidity within five minutes. It's frightening to think that the person driving a 2,000-kilo hunk of steel down the road headed toward you is that brain-dead, but they're everywhere.
As for what GAW says about health care in Canada (Australia too) I second that! Yesterday I had the first "financial concern" conversation I can remember in two years with a patient (who's actually an American who moved up here, but is covered now by the provincial health care system.)
Sad case, older woman who got addicted to painkillers, and is extra-morose because her son had mental problems and committed suicide with prescription drugs in the States just about this time of year. She deliberately ODed again and got sent to our ward. The local health authority sends a worker around to her government-subsidized flat every day to help her make meals, assist her with bathing (she's large and can't move well due to back pain) and do housekeeping. Several hours of care daily, which is still cheaper than having her occupy a hospital bed.
The province used to charge her $9 a day, but she has some money (not sure how or from where, but that's not my business. Medical details and her current state of mind re: suicide are.) Because she's judged able to afford more, the province wants to raise the daily rate to $21. So she's depressed over that, which is why we were discussing it.
Still, the care is there. It's just a matter of how much will come out of her pocket. Other than that, though, no one worries about health costs on an individual level. As a "what is the provincial government spending my tax money on, and how much do they want to raise the tax rate this year?" issue yes, but not "Can I afford to stay alive, or should I just die?" Local revenues are still riding high because of the increased property tax collections due to rising values with the housing bubble. Party on until the music's over...
That is the sound of the largest credit bubble in history imploding, slowly, as desperate Central Banksa's try to prop up the falling dam with toothpicks. But the flood waters are rising...
As Reinhart and Rogoff say, "This Time Is Different" (NOT!) - in "Eight Centuries of Financial Folly".
Interventionism and Central Planning always fail in the end, and have vast unintended consequences. But the bottom line is that history cannot be denied, and the iron wheel of basic economic cycles (Kondratiev Wave) will roll over them, crushing all before it, as it has been doing for the last 10 years, and will continue for most of or all of the next decade too.
Until, as KD has always said, the bad credit and losses are forced out into the open, the shadow Bankster system collapses, and the losses are marked to reality and taken, as bitter a pill as that may be.
Re: that $15 trillion in fictitious capital -- I like The Automatic Earth's phrase of "excess claims to underlying real wealth." There's a lot of promises on paper that have been made. What they are worth when it comes to people paying for them with sweat and labour and surplus potatoes, though, is a different thing.
"Stoneleigh" of TAE likes to say it's a game of musical chairs with all these financial promises, only the ratio is more like 100 people dancing around two chairs, not 99 chairs. When the music's over, there are going to be a lot of people hitting the floor instead of sitting pretty. Stoneleigh is going to be speaking in town next week, which Mrs. Bukko and I plan to attend. She's going to Australia next, Shaza -- catch her when she comes your way. A guy named Heinlein, who's also a financial/ecological doomer, will also be here in February. I plan to wallow in gloom next month.
Bukko - A sad story indeed, but I guess you get a lot of those in your line of work. Which requires a certain strong disciplined mindset for the workers like you, as dealing with those all day long every day will tend to depress you too if you let it.
Thanks for doing your job, I am not sure I would want to - I could if I had to, like during a crisis, but it would not be something I could do as a career.
A very good comment.
And Party On, a party is always more fun than a funeral. Celebrate being upright and breathing, while you can. The real estate bubble in BC is entering the end game, IMHO, but life goes on regardless.
Would he be related to the great classic sci-fi writer Robert A Heinlein, by chance?
One of my favorite authors from when I was younger and voraciously read sci-fi novels.
I read TAE on occasion too, but in general I find them just a little too Bearishly biased, it is usually a rather depressing read. Not that I disagree much with most of their basic thesis, but given the experience of the last few years, I just don't think we are facing total economic collapse and will be living in caves soon - just more of the same, a deep recession that last for years yet.
What they used to call a ' Great Crash' (1873), 'Great Panic' (1909), 'Great Depression' (1930s), and 'Great Financial Crisis' or 'Great Recession' of today.
The next one will be called 'Great Slight Slowdown' of 2048 or so, judging by the trend in names, so as not to scare the sheeple, but it is the same old story - there is little new under the sun, really, and 'This Time It Is NOT Different'.
But as I said, life goes on, the sun rises in the East, and not every part of the economy sucks now, and the economy will not suck forever, and some sectors will be doing well regardless - just like in the past crisis periods. Family, friends, quality of life are all more important than obsessing over the economy or the real estate bust or whatever.
Just "Say No to Banksters", or Greece finally begins to get over it:
ZH: "Greece Politely Declines German Annexation Demands"
"Following yesterday's frankly stunning news that the Troika politely requests that Greece hand over its first fiscal, then pretty much all other, sovereignty to "Europe", here is the Greek response to the Troika's foray into outright colonialism:
* GREEK GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN DECLARES THAT THE BUDGET IS SOLELY ITS RESPONSIBILITY - DJ
What is interesting here is that unlike the highly irrelevant IIF negotiations which will end in a Greek default one way or another, the real plotline that should be followed is this one: because unless Germany, pardon the Troika, gets the one condition it demands, namely "absolute priority to debt service" and "transfer of national budgetary sovereignty", as well as a "constitutional amendment" thereto. there is no Troika funding deal. Furthermore, since as a reminder the PSI talks are just the beginning, the next step is ensuring compliance, as was noted yesterday ("[ceding sovereignty] will reassure public and private creditors that the Hellenic Republic will honour its comittments after PSI and will positively influence market access"), any refusal to implement such demands is an automatic dealbreaker. Which means anything Dallara and the IIF say, as representatives of a steering committee that at this point probably constitutes of one bondholder, with the bulk having shifted to the ad hoc committee, is irrelevant. Germany just got its answer. And the next step is, as Zero Hedge first suggested, an epic LTRO in precisely one month, whose sole purpose will be to prefund European banks ahead of the Greek default with enough cash to withstand Europe's Bear Stearns. Although as a reminder, in the US, Bear Stearns only led to Lehman and the global "all in" gambit to preserve the financial system by shifting bank insolvency risk to the sovereigns..."
"But who will bailout the world's central banks which already collectively hold over 30% of global GDP in the form of "assets", or as this term is better known these days, debt? "
I called it, err, worthless used toilet paper, myself.
I am betting on aliens to land, well funded of course, and they will buy up all our bad assets at 100% face value, as a favor to the human race - and buy up every "exporting nations" products too, since we don't have enough demand here on Earth.
I'm going outside to set up my telescope and see if I can see them coming.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chris-martenson-interviews-john-mauldin-its-time-make-hard-decisions
ZH: "Chris Martenson Interviews John Mauldin: "It's Time to Make the Hard Decisions"
"Back in the 1930's, Irving Fisher introduced a concept called the 'debt supercycle.' Simply put, it posits that when there is a buildup of too much debt within an economy, there reaches a point where there simply is no other available solution but to let it rewind.
We are at that point in our economy, as are most other major economies around the world, claims John Maudlin, author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter and the recent bestselling book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything.
For the past several decades, excessive and increasing amounts of credit in the system have allowed us to live above our means as both individuals and nations. We've been able to have our cake and eat it, too. Now that the supercycle has ended and the inevitable de-leveraging cycle is staring us in the face, we will be forced to set priorities in a way that has been foreign to our society for over a generation..."
Great stuff there.
More:
"The problem is, there are only really two ways that you can deal with the debt. You can grow your way out of it, which is what you can do in normal business cycles. For most times in most places, we can grow our way out of debt problems, which is what the central bank is coming in and trying to do. The problem is, when you’re at the end of the debt supercycle, when you’re running up against your ability to borrow money, that liquidity no longer works.
As Fisher pointed out, the time to solve the debt bubble is before it becomes a bubble. He was wanting separation of commercial banks and lending. He wanted a much less fractional-reserve-based banking because he wanted the debt to keep from building up past levels that we saw in the 1920’s. He saw that as something that was so bad that it created the Depression.
So you can either repudiate the debt, you can default on it, you can monetize it, you can try to grow your way out of it; but you’re going have to deal with it. And there’s no easy way, when you’re at the end of the debt supercycle, when debt has become too much. Printing money doesn’t work..."
Recommended reading, and a 39 minute podcast, which I am going to download, at the link.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/page/transcript-john-mauldin
If you want to read it instead.
"And, it’s not every recession. It takes a long time generally 60 to 70 years in the US case – for these debt cycles to build up."
The problem is, when you’re at the end of the debt super cycle, when you’re running up against your ability to borrow money, that liquidity no longer works. Now, the US isn’t there yet.
We have an opportunity in this election, 2012 and then in 2013 with the new congress to get our deficits under control. It’s not without paying, which is what I’ve been writing. When you start reducing your leverage, you’re locking in a slower growth economy. We’ve used leverage to help boost our growth. Or, when you take that leverage off, you have that reverse effect.
As Fisher pointed out, the time to solve the debt bubble is before it becomes a bubble. He was wanting you know, separation of commercial banks and lending. He wanted a much less fractional reserve-based banking because he wanted the debt to keep from building up past levels that we saw in the 20’s. He saw that as something that was so bad that it created the depression
Exactly in line with standard Kondratiev Wave theory...which basically says a boom causes a bust which eventually becomes a boom again, as the wave rolls on.
gaw-HAVE SPAC ESUIT WILL TRAVEL, to you, brother. Did you ever read Heinlein's THE FIFTH COLUMN? I will recommend this to EVERYONE here. It would make good reading for those of us about to watch the 'changing of the world'!
Bukko-Hubby just had his meeting with VA Dr who does pensions/compensation for his PTSD. He wanted to know my husband's opinion of psychiatrist. Hubby said they are PILL PUSHERS and he won't take the pills.
There is a HUGE difference between a psychologist and a psychiatrist. His psychologist's helps him come to terms with things and runs the group PTSD meeting. The guys trust him. He doesn't promise 'easy fixes'. Is hubby depressed? Well, YEAH. His dad died, his aunt died, his cat died, he's lost his job, and he's just been diagnosed with a progressive disease. What the HE*K if he WASN'T depressed I'd be worried ;-). As a man of faith, however, he is against suicide BUT he also admitted that he wouldn't 'FIGHT' a diagnosis of a fatal disease. Wonder what they'll make of that?
Like Queen, I've simply come to terms. I can do what I can do; pay what I can pay; make decisions as I'm led, etc. I'd planned to put $9,000 in Paladin but it's going to be $8,000 with this additional cost. At least, to start. I can always add more.
I'm still cynical enough to say that what is the WORST that can happen if you run out of money? Lose your house. Okay, it's bricks and mortar. We can sell down furniture and 'stuff' (if anyone has money to buy).
I must admit I spent money this week on a USED dvd for Tai Chi for Seniors with Balance Problems. Hope to get us both 'moving' a bit more and from what I've read, this would be the best exercise of gentle movements to keep us going without causing MORE problems. As it was used, I'm not beating myself up ;-)
Weekly update on breadth chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA150&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13780127670
All A-OK, ie bullish, with no sign of MACD rollover. However it's gone up so fat so quickly that a retrace is very possible, which ties in with the SPY chart and the high daily RSi readings.
I'm so sorry to hear about your issues, and will say a prayer for you, as surely good people should catch a break once in a while at least.
Your comments are so good, perhaps I could suggest an at-home business for you: an e-book that you write and sell for a voluntary $2, or $1 to start by promoting with a Blog where you focus on issues affecting say: older citizens, or on issues related to your career background, or your local area, or a sci-fi novel - whatever you feel passionate about, but tastefully advertise your book. An .mp3 of the audio version that can be sold for a voluntary $1. A free .mobi version for Android users, who are growing by the millions per month around the world. (I would not go with Apple because of their restrictive licensing policies) An .mp3 of the audio version that can be sold for a voluntary $1. A mail out CD or DVD with the .pdf file, audio .mp3 file, and some photos or graphics or posts from your Blog, for $3 or $4.
In all cases, those who pay a $1 or $2 will get a longer version or the 'extra chapter' or whatever, to provide the added value for incentive to make the purchase. You will be providing quality content that they want to read, I'm sure. If you spend some time on it, you can provide a valuable resource to many people, and make money too, as a 1-person part time at home business. Get your husband involved on the business end, as a consultant or whatever role he fits..
Even if you don't make any money, it will be good for you your mental health to develop it. The software is all free.
We are in an internet world, and damn near everyone will soon have a mobile PC-like smartphone that surfs the internet, so the potential market is 5 Billion people or so.
As to Heinlein, I don't recall that one, but I will see if I can pick it up, there are a few used bookstores around, and I want to get rid of a bunch of books. I only keep the good ones, but have stopped buying them because I have a few file boxes of great sci-fi books but not enough shelf space.
I should dig up my Heinlein books, I have a few I think, 'Starship Troopers' I recall reading (much much better than the movie of course, they really Hollywoodized it).
He was always about fighting for what is right, wasn't he. Doing the right thing, no matter what the cost.
OT It was the 6th Column. It's about what happens when US CONGRESS AND PRESIDENT all die and we are taken over by a foreign enemy. It is also know as THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW. Beneath the 'obvious' is a story about racism--the 'Pan Asians' rule and are the villains. Now, remember this was penned LONG ago somewhere in late 40's I think so it's not politically correct ;-) Great story, however.
Have Space Suit was a wonderful story with the Mother-thing. What they did to Troopers in Hollywood was a crime. Sad.
Should I ever publish I would ALWAYS require 'approval' for movie rights. I've seen great pictures ruined by casting/writing. Recently watched Behind the Scenes of Phantom of Opera (play). Had they gone with their FIRST pick of Phantom it would have been laughable. Perfect example IMO of holding true to artistic impression. Same with the movie. I like Gerald Butler but he couldn't SING the part. If I'm going to a musical, I want 'voice.' I understand they (Hollywood) are making Les Mis as a movie. Hope that won't be a disaster but have to wonder. Especially as that show also requires VOICE not just looks and popularity.
Okay back to listening to Spartacus ballet music.
Looks like Aus property is not falling over yet...I have attended some auctions and they are going very well with clearance rates...this month is normally pretty slow. Eatern and Inner west suburbs are high end areas...
Strong January sales point to housing rebound
Stephen Nicholls
January 21, 2012
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/strong-january-sales-point-to-housing-rebound-20120120-1qa41.html
HOME buyers in Sydney's east and inner west are out in force, with agents reporting a surprising number of early sales.
Traditionally January is a quiet month for sales, but some believe the two interest rate cuts in November and December could be encouraging buyers.
Along with many of last year's unsold properties finding buyers, there have been cases of freshly listed homes selling within a week. ''We have rarely seen so many truly qualified and cashed-up buyers,'' said Di Jones director Gary Sands.
For a look at life without Unions, look no further than China...or Foxconn for that matter! Unions are illegal in China...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24651576437
Let's look at the long term daily $SPX chart:
Price peaking at 1326 is not Bullish if it falls now for a while, as that did not pass old intermediate high of 1353, though it did break above the key 1285 level of the first right shoulder, there in early Jan, which was taken as Bullish sign. Volume has a lot of recent green bars, maybe a few red ones are due.
Still the massive H&S pattern in play, price needs to push past 1353/1363 and stay there to end that.
RSI-14 peaked above 70 and fell back, not always fatal but certainly cause for concern. An RSI system would have signaled a 'buy' in AAug or so around 1130, as RSI-14 cleared 30 upwards, and a 'sell' this week around 1320, the interim correction there was scary but would not have triggered a 3% or 5% stop, for a 15% gain or so with trading slippage in 4 months - a perfect by the book RSI trade there, for somebody who was paying attention. Not me, sadly.
MACD looking ready to go under 0 now, a Bearish signal at least short term. An MACD based trading system would have thrown a 'buy' in Aug and sell in Sept for a smaller gain, and again, in late Nov/early Dec, sell now - but both had fakeout shakeouts that probably scared many off too.
PPO is elevated and near levels where it has turned down before. This indicator would have given nearly the same entries, buy in Sept and sell in Oct, and again in Nov or Dec and sell now or soon possibly.
All in all, the outlook I see there is, at this point, you missed most of the rally as a correction probably looms. If you need to buy, wait for that.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30920486342
Weekly version of the $SPX chart, which looks more Bullish, with the MAs at least, mostly sloping upwards, the 10 crossing the 50 upwards would be Bullish, if it happens, tune in next week maybe.
RSI-14, MACD-H and PPO showing that the rally could run for a while yet before peaking.
So short term indicators are much more negative than long term at this point. Fundamentals are not supportive at this time, we are in headline driven mode still. Given the constant threat of a EUro area surprise any day now, if bad would be negative, while another Grand Failout would be seen as positive, at least for a while. Could rally into late Winter or Spring after quick correction and then fall over...or just fail now?
The bottom was in in Aug, any move below 1285 puts 1216, 1158 and 1123 in play.
just looking at likely outcomes
cl - Let's not get too far ahead, you haven't written the book yet, the movie will come later, as will your day time talk show. LOL
Though it is good to think big. I always say go big, or go home.
At least give it some serous thought, or maybe you have your own idea. Just something to break out of that rut in life.
Shaza - how are things down under, and hope you had a fine holiday. I am sure it is horribly warm and sunny there.
I really don't think Australians have too much to complain about, given the climate, all other things being equal. If the economy or goes bad or real estate crashes or whatever, you can at least go to the beach.
Where are the buyers from, do you think, foreigners moving in, or local selling smaller homes to move up, or just people with good jobs buying a home instead of renting...will it continue?
The price-to-income level in Australia is still out of whack with conventional norms, so a reversion to the mean is in order, would you not expect?
Well, unions are technically in every factory in China I have read, as all workers are legally mandated to belong. But that does not mean anything when the company can do whatever it wants, the 'union dues' are just a tax with no benefit, really.
Foxconn is on the poster for what is wrong with China, more or less, though, you are correct. But do you blame them or the people who buy the products anyway, knowing that.
So unions are necessary in 3rd world countries, to, over time, to bring them up to the global standards of more developed nations. Or they remain feudal peasant economies, in effect. That 'promoting internal demand' the Chines Government talks about now.
But old Henry Ford was right, you pay your workers enough so that they can buy the car they build, which builds the economy up. You pay peanuts, you get monkeys.
But in our Western nations, the union battle was won long ago, we have laws that enact what unions used to fight for. I'm all for treating employees fairly and all, but our Western "labor leaders" just advocate overly easy Government handouts that lead to a Greece or Portugal situation.
GAW, no Unios are state run entities that keep an eye on "disruptive members'. From there a list is sent to factory owners to sack those 'members'. True labour Unions in China do not exist yet.
Have a listen to this:
MR. DAISEY AND THE APPLE FACTORY
Originally aired 01.06.2012
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/454/mr-daisey-and-the-apple-factory
In the guts of this story is the true function of State run Unions...anything with State in front of the rest of the descriptive can not be good!
Show us your papers! You vil do vat ve say! We have ways of making you co-operate!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-28/euro-officials-said-to-discuss-veto-powers-over-greek-budget.html
"European Officials Said to Discuss Veto Powers Over Greek Budget Decisions"
"European policy makers are discussing plans to directly intervene in Greek budget decisions as the country struggles to cut its deficit, two euro-region government officials said today.
Under the proposals, European institutions would have powers to implement austerity measures agreed under the terms of Greece’s bailout agreements, said one of the officials, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. The plan would accelerate decision making and strengthen the power of officials overseeing Greece’s budget as part of the so- called troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the person said."
The neo-Feudal Fascist Bankster State, where orders and plans come from 'confidential agreements' that cannot be disclosed.
Gaw-that is good advice. I copied it to have on hand so when the writing is finished I can look back at it.
As for housing, just spoke to a man who sold today. His words, "Had the house 7 years. I made a little bit more than breaking even but it sold."
I think this is going to be the 'new normal'. You aren't going to make a killing and right now it is a buyer's market...IF you can get a mortgage. I still think that is behind some of the lousy housing numbers.
I remain amazed at the BUY NOW/PAY LATER ads that keep littering the tv. EVERYONE needs a 40-52 inch TV, don't cha know? Just as everyone needs to eat chicken wings and pizza to watch the Super Bowl. If the cure for cancer was to be found on a pigskin, it would be eradicated by now. That said, I hope QUEENBEE picks the right team and makes a bet that brings her a reward. After the time she's had lately, she deserves some!
Of course, the 'union' is a farce at Foxconn as you say. It is just a fig leaf so the Chinese Government can say phrases like "workers are united" or whatever in speeches, and collect some tax. The bit about firing anyone who doesn't like it is typical for a police state, I would say.
Let's just say buying an iProduct is snot high on my priority list, I'd pay more for another brand, but oddly they are cheaper anyway. Perhaps someone makes just a liiiitle too much profit margin off slave labor.
GAW, Foxconn actually is the beauty in the ugly contest! while we see that they have had workers commit suicide, the rate within the factory is lower than the rate within China in general...
All good here in OZ...I am eagerly awaiting the property collapse here for 6 years now, and NOTHING...down 1.9% in areas I am interested in...overall things are very good.
Our day will come, but it has not arrived yet as prophesised by Mish and Keen!
There is an interesting thing going on though...retail is fascinating. It has completely collapsed, not due to economy, but due to strong Au dollar and shoppers buying internationally online...
My guess is that the Gov will put a high tax on goods bough online! From afar it looks as if retail is an economic matter when in fact, the disruption brought about with a high AUD and no tax for Online goods has practically desiccated bricks and mortar shops.
The recent report about online retail in Australia, put out by ACMA shows a staggering rise in profits for online businesses!
I saw a thing on Forecasting...
"In forecasting you are either lucky or wrong!"
Self inflicted wounds usually hurt, but I'm sure the ECB will just write another check, what's another Billion here or there:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/28/us-iran-oil-sanctions-idUSTRE80R0NU20120128
"Sanctions to hit EU buyback firms: Iran oil chief"
"(Reuters) - European companies owed oil by Iran could lose out if Tehran imposes a ban on crude exports to the European Union next week.
"Generally, the parties to incur damage from the EU's recent decision will be European companies with pending contracts with Iran," Ahmad Qalebani, head of the National Iranian Oil Co. told the ISNA news agency.
"The European companies will have to abide by the provisions of the buyback contracts," he said. "If they act otherwise, they will be the parties to incur the relevant losses and will subject the repatriation of their capital to problems." "
Ouch, sounds like they paid in advance. Oops. Don't worry, we'll all subsidize it at the gas pumps, it's just another US Government brain wave. "This WILL NOT, I repeat WILL NOT cause a shortage of oil and gas, I fully assure you!"
GAW, weather has been massive floods again with better control of water release from dams....La Nina made an appearance again..I guess the farmers will be happy if it is not TOO much rain...
Is it FREEZING where you are?
Excuse typos, I am on Mac Air and the whole screen etc is tiny
http://sacom.hk/category/campaigns/apple
GAW, take a look at this group out of Hong Kong...not a union but a group for Human Rights campaigning against Factory abuses in mainland China...
cl - well at least he sold the house and can get on with his life. Not all bad news there. I will agree perhaps too many are just a liiiittle too sports focused, but what can you do. Most people are not equipped for more intellectual pursuits, or don't want to. And it is relatively harmless too. Our whole culture is rather shallow at this point anyway, and turning that ship around is about impossible, no point worrying now. Sports is just mass entertainment, an industry like widgets.
As to the ads, people don't have to buy what is advertised, and they are private businesses, so why not, really, at least some jobs are created, it is a normal part of the economy, more or less. What is advertised changes over the years, but the basic idea is the same. I like looking at ads in old magazines etc, they are like a window on the times.
The bigger issue is: how are they paying for it, with money or with credit, ie future money they haven't made yet?
Shaza - "Foxconn actually is the beauty in the ugly contest! while we see that they have had workers commit suicide, the rate within the factory is lower than the rate within China in general..."
OK now you are scaring me. Does that say more about Foxconn or China?
MF chief asks for more cash at Davos
January 29, 2012 - 5:19AM
Read later
GNE
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde led a global push on Saturday for the eurozone to boost its financial firewall, saying "if it is big enough it will not get used."
"It's for that reason that I am here, with my little bag, to collect a bit of money," Lagarde told leaders at the World Economic Forum.
smh.com.au
I would say Vancouver BC and Australia will go down together, when China slows down sufficiently, I am sure, as they are the ultimate drives of demand around the Pacific Rim.
Retail internet is rising for basic reasons - like customers like it, it's open 24/7, it has lower cost structure if done right - and traditional bricks-and-mortar businesses are not going to survive that disruption to their business model unless they have a good website. Which most can't, and most corporations can't do it either.
Threatening their business models with going the way of the dinosaur. Same for old media, like newspapers, books etc. Which calls into question "top management" whose usefulness at most is in inverse to their salary - the more they get paid, the less they contribute. But first to cash the bonus check, of course.
The world has gone internet now, and there is no turning back. Go net or go home. We just have to, or go live in a cave, far enough away, I am not sure where.
LOL Christine passes around her purse looking for a handout. "Please, monsieur, you 'ave any spare change, nest ce pas?"
I can tell you that Canada and the US are not going for it, except through back-door bailouts like the 'swap lines', not the front door of the IMF, as she wants.
Maybe you Aussies can get up a collection over there, pass an empty case of Fosters around.
Or maybe we can send the bill to the BRICs, see if they want to pay: "This is Global Collection Agency calling, for the IMF Sovereign Bankster Rescue Fund III, would you care to bail out your profligate distant relative in Europe? Please? They have a bit of a debt issue,and we need to collect some funds here."
Or how about the IMF send out Nigerian style e-mail blasts, "For the helping of us in this matter we are eagerly prepared to paying you a large finders fee in this matter, as long as you transfer the funds to our lawyer in Zimbabwe immediately!"
We have La Nina here in North America too, she gets around, the witch.
It means a milder and rainy winter, which is not really good, lots of freezing rain etc. Though it is snowing hard today. The average temp is about 0 C day and -5 at night, which is not bad really, hardly bothers us. Compared to the alternative of 20 degrees colder or more for periods during a cold wave, which we usually get a few times in a winter, it's not so bad, and generally leads to lower winter heating bills for all. Our houses are very well insulated, for the most part.
But the days are getting longer, you can see it now, and Spring will come. Winter is just one of the seasons, we're used to it. And there is a lot of wintry beauty in the landscape, some days.
A sunny calm day now will be nice, and it only get better now. We've had enough snow and rain to make a damp Spring likely, which is better than a dry one here, the heat comes in quickly and dries it up fast otherwise, setting up a drought for the Summer.
No worries here in Canada, really, compared to so many other places in these times. Our economy is sluggish, but life goes on.
No worries in Spain, either. Like the Canucks, we'll get thro thanks to our naural resources (olive oil)
GAW,
I completely agree with your comments on the market, viz:
Short-term
All in all, the outlook I see there is, at this point, you missed most of the rally as a correction probably looms.
Medium-term:
If you need to buy, wait for that.
RSI-14, MACD-H and PPO showing that the rally could run for a while yet before peaking.'
I think the end of the next correction will be the last buying opportunity before the next nasty correction or bear (remins to be seen which). I also think that this rally medium has still got legs as the weekly MACD is still very bullish, seasonlity is heavily in the markt's favour until at least mid-April, and the bread indicator i showed hasn't got wildly bullish yet and its 10 week ma shows now sign of flattening.
Bukko,
Kust go to google news and key in "kentucky + bridge" to read all about that ship vs. bridge 'event.'
Thanks for all the comments today. Very entertaining. sorry I was too busy to join in. I actually have to work two day a week. Time to sit and spend some more time with Yvonne. She forgets everything and it is like her mind is a whiteboard that gets erased daily and I have to remind her what reality is all over again. I don't stress about it. Things could be worse. The winter has missed us so far this year and my investments have been going north instead of south.
As for the long term outlook on the global economy I think we are getting near the end of the road. Np place left to kick the can.
GAW, it could be worse. This morning the in-laws phoned their neighbor in Russia (they are keeping an eye on their apartment & feeding their cat).
It is -37C / -34F over there right now. Brrr!
Queenbee, over on Turd's blog, on the current thread ("Headed Out,") I posted a photo of a Walking Liberty Half that I bought a while back, and people are saying that it looks fake. (My post is the fifth one on that thread, on the first page - easy to find.)
I actually purchased that coin a while back, and would need to sort through a boxful of coins to find it. I attached that particular photo because I was posting about my most recent acquisition and happened to have that photo on the computer at the time.
But for the past few months, when buying, I have checked out coins with a magnet; perhaps it is indeed a counterfeit or maybe this is just a case of 'group-think' in action.
Perhaps when I have some time I will sort through my Walking Liberties, pick out all the 1942's, and scan them closely with a magnifying glass.
At any rate - since I bought Silver this past week - the price is certainly to reverse direction and go down next week.
http://www.optionistics.com/f/strike_peg
Use symbol SPX and check it at various time frames. It's not very Bullish out to 2014. Not that reliable, really, but it gives you a range there where the price is more likely to land.
Haven't really looked at much others, it uses:
http://www.cboe.com/TradTool/Symbols/SymbolAll.aspx
for symbols you can use there
Probably the opposite effect of La Nina, but Russia is known for the cold winters, I thought that's why they drink vodka, because it won't freeze if stored unheated.
Fake antique coins, I shake my head. Probably mass produced in China.
okay, by all means go to THE BIG PICTURE and watch the interruption of the viola concerto. It will make you shake your head, then smile.
Ah, humans! We are such ridiculous creatures when you consider it.
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