- World Bank warns world faces deeper crisis than GFC
- Says "an escalation of the crisis would spare no-one"
- Commonwealth Bank doubles down on borrowers
THE global economy is veering towards a recession potentially more debilitating than the financial crisis, the World Bank has warned.
And the Asian growth nations fuelling Australia's prosperity could be dragged into the mire, the authority says, in a move that would have severe ramifications for the domestic economy, theHerald Sun reported.
The World Bank yesterday slashed its forecast for global growth in 2012 and 2013.
Economists labelled the move a "wake-up call" for nations wrestling with chronic debt woes.
The Washington-based institution says that after six months of slowing economic activity, growth in the global economy is likely to clock in at 2.5 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013.
Just six months ago it was forecasting 3.6 per cent growth both years.
"An escalation of the crisis would spare no-one," World Bank global macroeconomics manager Andrew Burns said.
"Developed and developing country growth rates could fall by as much or more than in 2008-09. The world could be thrown into a recession as large or even larger.
Thanks Shaza
Mining service groups are starting to rise from ashes of GFC
DURING the global financial crisis, the shares of Brisbane-based mining services groups Sedgman and Ausenco were hammered.
Those who bought in at their nadir in early 2009 have done OK since, although Ausenco shares took another sharp downturn mid-2010 before they resumed their recovery.
The two companies have recovered as resource project development across the globe has got back into top gear.
And with brownfields and greenfields exploration strengthening, their pipelines of future projects should continue, at least medium term, to fill.
Many investors who bought into the groups' floats in late 2006, after which the shares soared Ausenco's spectacularly might remain a little disappointed.
Sedgman's shares floated in mid-2006 at $1 each and rose to $3.95 by mid-2007 and Ausenco's, also sold to the public at $1 and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in June 2006, rose to a staggering $16-plus within 18 months.
With hindsight, those prices were spectacular examples of the pre-GFC sharemarket bubble and people who didn't take some profits and put them in the bank having seen Ausenco's shares rise 16-fold should perhaps only blame themselves that they're not richer.
It may be a long time before either company returns to those giddy heights, if Ausenco ever does.
But both Sedgman and Ausenco are looking at significantly rising revenues, having rebuilt their order books as projects, put on hold when the GFC hit the world's major miners, have been reactivated.
RBS Morgans' head of research Roger Leaning told The Courier-Mail last week: "Both companies look set for strong growth.
"Ausenco has diversified both by type of work and geographically, and Sedgman is also looking strong.
"Both are back to pre-GFC levels of billable work, suggesting there'll be a lot of growth if Europe's woes don't tip the world economy into recession."
Leaning points to the expansion of other industry service companies, such as Campbell Brothers (in mineral analysis) and a string of drilling companies, saying: "You can look at strength along the whole of the food chain."
http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/mining-service-groups-are-starting-to-rise-from-ashes-of-gfc/story-fnbdkrr9-1226225720233
Technician John Bollinger: “Putting Money Into Bonds Will Be Deeply Regretted”
Also Jim’s Big Picture: “What if it was Thanksgiving and you’re the turkey?” and Ryan Puplava on this week’s market
This is a bio and a link below to an audio commentary QB
Jim welcomes famed technician John Bollinger this week to discuss, among other subjects, the rally no one believes in. In Jim’s first Big Picture topic, "What if it was Thanksgiving and you’re the turkey?" he looks at the rising cost of food. Ryan Puplava also wraps up this week in the markets.
Ryan joined PFS Group in 1995. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration/Finance from San Diego State University. His professional designations include FINRA Series 4, Series 7, and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He earned the Chartered Market Technician's designation in 2007. Mr. Puplava is Senior Trading Manager and works closely with Jim Puplava on PFS Group's Growth investment objective. He also contributes a monthly Market Observation to Financial Sense and co-authors In the Know—a weekly communication for Jim Puplava's clients only—with other members of the trading staff.
John Bollinger is the president and founder of Bollinger Capital Management, an investment management company that provides technically-driven money management services. Bollinger Capital Management also develops and provides proprietary research for institutions and individuals. He is perhaps best known to the public as the creator of Bollinger Bands, which he developed in the mid ‘80s. Over the past two decades, investors and traders worldwide have come to view Bollinger Bands as a most reliable tool for assessing expected price action and the bands are featured on most financial charting software and websites.
25 comments:
GAW I wrote back.
Another big name brand bites the dust.
Kodak files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
There goes the industrial demand for Silver. Wait a second - they weren't using any Silver because their film business evaporated, and that is why they went bankrupt.
OT-it isn't what you know, it's what you DON'T know.
NYC Moves to Deploy Body Scanners on STREET in search for guns....
Between SOPA, the weekend signing of the bill making the Constitutional right to trial for US Citizens, this little headline, the cameras on the streets, etc. ...seems to this poor dumb cluck that whatever RIGHTS or privacy we once had have vanished.
BREAD AND CIRCUSES, folks. It's all bread and circuses.
GAW any updates on Benton's spinnout? Am I too late as the ask is now .34 and seems high. Was there a cut off date that I had to own the stock?
CL Rights? We have no rights. We have owners. They own us.
If things go bad for Yvonne I am northward bound or as What me Worry? said the UK will give me all the money I need to live on the dole. What a country! Go Brits!
GAW do you think this is truth or fiction. What about the spinoff you were referring to. Am I too late? Is the price too high in your opinion.
BENTON RELEASES FINAL DRILLING RESULTS AT ABERNETHY
Thunder Bay, Ontario: Benton Resources Corp (BTC: TSX.V, “Benton” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company has now received all assay results from its recently completed diamond drilling program on its 100% owned Abernethy gold project located 10km southwest of Kenora, Ontario. The drill program has confirmed the potential to outline a significant gold resource on the property. A total of nine holes were drilled with seven of the holes testing the main horizon and the other two testing areas north and south of the main horizon. The main horizon known as the “Mingold Zone” has been traced for approximately 550m in strike length and up to 77m core length in width and is open in all directions. The Mingold Zone was discovered by a single hole drilled by Hudbay minerals in 1965 (17.8 gpt gold over 1.52 metres) and subsequently three more holes drilled by MinGold in 1989 which returned up to 6.30 gpt gold over 6.1 metres (see Benton’s PR dated April 18, 2011).
Benton’s drill campaign was successful in confirming and expanding the mineralization in strike length and at shallow depths. The gold mineralization warrants further drilling to test the full extent, grade and potential of this new discovery. Based on the limited shallow diamond drilling completed to date the mineralization appears to be a large gold system with multiple parallel zones. A location map can be viewed on the company’s web site and a table of significant results from all.
http://www.bentonresources.ca/article/benton-releases-final-drilling-results-at-abernethy-311.asp
I think all the world's economy's are toast so now it seems like we are beating a dead horse. It is how to lose the least that matters. Shaza what are you doing in OZ to protect your wealth?
Gold climbed for a fourth session on Thursday as the euro hit a two-week high versus the dollar, benefiting from solid Spanish and French debt auctions, and European stock markets rose, indicating better appetite for assets seen as higher risk.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/19/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE7AK1M520120119
chicken little - congratulations on the 40th wedding anniversary (I know I'm early, but such a milestone should be celebrated!)
For Paladin Funds, I read on their website the minimum investment is $2,500 US, and it is designed more for longer term investors, it is not a Fund that you buy and sell every day like an ETF. And if you do sell, there will be tax implications, so I would say it is better to leave the money in their and let it grow, until you are ready to withdraw some, with the help of a good accountant to limit the tax bill.
Working afternoon shift, 4 to 1 PM, and an hour or two overtime every night, so I am a little tired these days.
SOPA and Obama and DHS - all are symproms of the creeping police state, that would make a North Korean secret police agent proud.
What does it say about a country when the Government is more terrified of it's own citizens than anything else?
I am thinking we should simply scrap about 90% of all Government and it's "functions" as they are a complete misallocation of time, money and resources. Aside from regulating matters by enforcing some common sense laws that actually do accomplish something important (food safety, Volker Rule, medicare etc - not that many fall into that category) - the rest of what Government does every day is just a colossal burden on taxpayers who are forced to pay for it all.
For Benton, I can't find any fresh news on the spinout, it is still pending, but there seems to be no rush, and no definite timeline announced as of yet.
As of Oct 24th they had to complete more regulatory filings etc, and are still doing that I presume.
So there is no date of record yet, that will be announced in the future.
http://www.bentonresources.ca/article/spinout-update-308.asp
Keep an eye on
http://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE:BTC
or the company news page, any new announcement will be posted there
As to the share price, it is still well below the book value of the shares of other miners they hold, at a rough calculation, so it is not overpriced.
If you can buy it near 0.30 cents, you should be fine - if we ever get a recovery in gold miners, and the spinout proposal goes through, there should be a good profit there. It's not a short term trade, more of an investment.
The share price will probably fall a bit more if gold goes down or stays flat, so if you are patient you can try to get some under 0.30.
I know Kaimu at Bill Cara said he bought at 0.28, well before the public knew about the spinout, he is a large investor who hears about these things ahead of most, at a mining show last Fall, I think. His usual trade is to buy in early at a low price, then hold for 1-2 years, and sell, at several hundred % profit - will that pattern hold here, probably but nothing is guaranteed.
Benton is also a real gold explorer with several actual projects underway, so there is someother value there. The spinout is all about the many shares they own in quite a few well known larger miners.
You pays your money and you takes your chances. I own 30K shares, at 0.34 to 0.36 entry, and I am holding.
by the time the news is out it's too late
Looking at volume, no one seems very excited: not a lot of buying or selling. chartwuse it still looks very unconvincing, but you the indicators are showing positive divergence. but price comes first.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTC.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23860877458
This is a caisno-type stock or penny arcade as merv would say. Not my cup of tea.
so, expect the market to go DOWN after I invest in Palladin (it always does. Like Mugabee? (who buys the silver?) I always portend the 'bad news' by a few days!
Queen--the Brits have had the dole forever (or at least as long as I've watched all their tv shows.) I LOVE Onslo staying home all day drinking beer, eating crisps and betting on the horses.
Interesting discussion today on why banks can't/won't loan. Even if they HAD the money, they don't WANT to loan at these rates. I don't expect rates to head up until 2015 or LATER!! (if we make it that long).
GAW-This would be long-term money. I have to put the money from T-notes some place! As they come due, I'm taking my money and NOT reinvesting it. I wonder how many others are doing the same? I NEED/want safety but what is safe. I think Mugabee had the correct 'spin' on percentages. I hate to think of buying gold at these rates, HOWEVER, if it dips again I may toy with buying physical. (I tend to like things in MY possession
CL,
Even if the market goes down, if Paldin have maintained their 70$ cash allocation uyou wouldn't see much negative movement.
Also, bear in mind that it's a long-short fund so he can take positions on both sides of the fence.
I'd have some mnoey in that fund if I could.
QB, AUD at a 27 year high, gold not well against AUD, so just doing same old same old...
Lots of cash mainly and stocks and trading...there is nothing I can do to really protect things...just nose down tail up and keep on trading...
Shaza I understand it really has become a day traders game. With the HFTs doing most of the trading in milliseconds there just isn't much new or dumb money coming into the markets. I am still long a couple of MF's but they are going nowhere.
Mammoth and others I did decide to sell my silver eagle 25th anniversary set for 600.00. That is a 100% profit (I paid 300.00) and I couldn't turn it down.
Queenbee, well done! One less boat-anchor to drag you down. Now you can convert your profits into a handful of Silver American Eagles which will take up less than 1/10th of the space that anniversery set took up.
Yep that would be one tube of 20 silver eagles. I'll add that to my order of 5 mint sealed gold buffalos.
Shaza I understand it really has become a day traders game. With the HFTs doing most of the trading in milliseconds there just isn't much new or dumb money coming into the markets.
I'm not sure i agree with that. I think that most HFT adds liquidity and they scalp off minute changes. The charts still are what they are. The only occasion where something totally unexpected happened was the flash crash and I'm not sure that due to HFT.
Sorry to disagree!
mugabe - HFT is an abusive practice that has nothing to do with a 'free market', it is just well funded insiders scalping off of others by being in the middle of every trade.
I am of the opinion that HFT should be totally banned, by having a period of 10 seconds before any trade can be canceled once it is displayed on the market order system.
If you read up on the details of how HFT works, they make their money by getting a fee or rebate from the market for providing "liquidity", which comes out of every other non-HFT traders pocket in the form of an added charge on your Exchange fee per trade.
But they only provide "liquidity" when the weather is good, when the market has a problem they run away and hide - which is the cause of the 'flash crashes', as the HFT "providers" simply stop doing any trades when "unusual price action" is detected.
The whole thing is a pile of stinking feces, just another symptom of the endemic systemic corruption that pervades our "markets" today.
You need to read up more on how it works and who is doing it. Sorry to disagree.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/mnchau-we-are-fighting-the-wrong-crisis.html
"Münchau: We are fighting the wrong crisis"
"Austerity has already led to a worsening outlook for Europe with even Germany now expecting 0.7% growth for all of 2012.
In Münchau’s view, the reason for the downgrades was that Europe is fighting the wrong battle. S&P even said in their message on the downgrades that an austerity-centered approach would make matters worse. Wolfgang noticed that German Chancellor Merkel and her Finance Minister Schäuble responded to this message by exhorting Europe to push through their austerity packages more quickly. Clearly they don’t get it.
Wolfgang goes on to say that the problem is not in the public sector but in the private sector, where high debt, deleveraging and then recession caused a gaping hole to open up in the public sectors’ balance sheets...
To me this situation looks pretty hopeless frankly. Policy makers in Europe just don’t get it. The best we are going to get is austerity and partial monetisation by the ECB until the union breaks or sovereign debtors default and banks are recapped. The question is why are they leading us down the abyss. Wolfgang says it’s because the government deficit story is an easier narrative to tell and simpler to attack within the existing institutional limitations of Euroland. That makes some sense politically, but it tells me that this crisis will continue to get worse."
The above Blog is always an excellent read, and if you are looking for a Blog to add to your list, a great choice.
The above article goes part of the way, but fails to mention the abusive role of the "banking system" and it's shadow banking arms, and the gross over-leverage employed by Banksters which led to the explosion of poor credit, now imploding, slowly, which is the root cause of this entire crisis.
Politicians are paid off by Banksters to absolve them of any responsibility for their own criminal actions, but that does not change the facts in the end.
Too much credit was extended to too many on shaky grounds, so a quick "profit" could be made, and bonuses ensured. When that credit inevitably failed, and the debts could not be supported anymore, a severe deflationary crisis erupted as the bad credit slowly goes to money heaven (or hell). A boom in easy credit led to a global bust.
Of course politicians are well paid to ignore the uncomfortable facts, as real solutions would involve shutting almost all Banks in Europe as they are (still) wildly insolvent, if normal accounting and "free markets" were allowed to function without interference.
Instead we get the zombification of the global economy, to support the criminal financial terrorist Bankster class at the expense of all others.
The same applies to America and China and most other nations as well.
Everywhere, politicians accept large sums from Banksters so that the normal course of free market capitalism can be avoided.
All part of the endemic systemic corruption that is our "Government" and "Exchanges" today.
We are not capitalist societies anymore, we are a just neo-Fascist corporate/Bankster oligarchic kleptocracies, where fraud, theft and corruption are accepted practices, as long as they are done by the "right people".
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