Warren Buffett: I could end the deficit in 5 minutes.

Warren Buffett: "I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP all sitting members of congress are ineligible for reelection."

Why is StochRSI so Volatile and What does it Measure?

StochRSI is volatile because it is an indicator of an indicator. Most indicators are derived directly from price. StochRSI is derived directly from RSI values, which are derived from price. This means StochRSI is two steps removed from the actual price. This is also known as the second derivative. Using the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) as an example, 14-day StochRSI would be 14-day Slow Stochastics applied to 14-day RSI for QQQ.


Click this image for a live chart.

Developed by Tushard Chande and Stanley Kroll, StochRSI was designed to increase sensitivity and signals from RSI. And it does. The chart above shows RSI fluctuating between 30 and 70 the last five months. There was one brief blip above 70 in mid February. StochRSI, on the other hand, gyrates between zero and one on a regular basis. A move to 1 indicates that RSI is at a 14-day high, while a move to 0 indicates that RSI is at a 14-day low. StochRSI is used to anticipate breakouts and surges in RSI, which in turn is used to anticipate turns in QQQ. You can read more on StochRSI in our ChartSchool.

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/mailbag/2011/07/why-is-stochrsi-so-volatile-and-what-does-it-measure-qqq.html

Apple now has more cash than the U.S. government

By Brandon Griggs, CNN

July 29, 2011 -- Updated 1603 GMT (0003 HKT) | Filed under: Innovation

Tech juggernaut Apple had a whopping $76.2 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of June, according to its last earnings report. Unlike the U.S. government, which is scrambling to avoid defaulting on its debt, Apple takes in more money than it spends.

This symbolic feat -- the world's most highly valued tech company surpassing the fiscal strength of the world's most powerful nation -- is just the latest pinnacle for Apple, which has been on an unprecedented roll.

Its Macs, iPhones and iPads remain hot sellers, its stock has surged past $400 a share and Apple just became the world's largest smartphone vendor by volume.

There's been a lot of speculation about what Apple might buy with its piles of cash -- Facebook and Sony being two of the more high-profile examples -- but the company doesn't seem to be in any hurry to make a move.

"We don't let the cash burn a hole in the pocket or make stupid acquisitions," CEO Jobs said last fall. "We'd like to continue to keep our powder dry because we think there are one or more strategic opportunities in the future."

Offering Uncle Sam a short-term loan is probably not one of them.

Special report: Goldman's new money machine: warehouses

By Pratima Desai, Clare Baldwin, Susan Thomas and Melanie Burton | Reuters 

LONDON/DETROIT (Reuters) - In a rundown patch of Detroit, enclosed by a cyclone fence and barbed wire, stands an unremarkable warehouse that investment bank Goldman Sachs has transformed into a money-making machine.

The derelict neighborhood off Michigan Avenue is a sharp contrast to Goldman's bustling skyscraper headquarters near Wall Street, but the two operations share one important element: management by the bank's savvy financial professionals.

A string of warehouses in Detroit, most of them operated by Goldman, has stockpiled more than a million tonnes of the industrial metal aluminum, about a quarter of global reported inventories.

Simply storing all that metal generates tens of millions of dollars in rental revenues for Goldman every year.

There's just one problem: only a trickle of the aluminum is leaving the depots, creating a supply pinch for manufacturers of everything from soft drink cans to aircraft.

The resulting spike in prices has sparked a clash between companies forced to pay more for their aluminum and wait months for it to be delivered, Goldman, which is keen to keep its cash machines humming and the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's benchmark industrial metals market, which critics accuse of lax oversight.

Analysts question why London's metals market allows big financial players like Goldman to own the warehouses which store huge quantities of metal even as they trade the commodity.

Robin Bhar, a veteran metals analyst at Credit Agricole in London says the conflict of interest is so acute he wants U.S. and European anti-trust regulators to weigh in.

"I think it makes a mockery of the market. It's a shame," Bhar said. "This is an anti-competitive situation. It puts (some) companies at an advantage, and clearly the rest of the market at a disadvantage. It's a real, genuine concern. And I think the regulators have to look at it."

Goldman said its warehouse subsidiary Metro International Trade Services has done nothing illegal, and abides by the LME's warehousing rules. "Producers have chosen to store metal in Detroit with Metro," a Goldman spokeswoman said. "We follow the LME requirements in terms of storing and releasing metals from our warehouses."

The London Metal Exchange defends its rules. "There is a perception that consumers have not been able to get to their metal when the reality is that it is big banks, financing companies and warehouses that are not able to get to their huge tonnages of metal fast enough," said LME business development manager Chris Evans.

For more follow the link:

http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-goldmans-money-machine-warehouses-090810768.html

WHY THE BDI IS A HEAD-FAKE

from Shaza

I keep saying that you can not rely on the Baltic Dry Index to assess the commodity climate in China. I have said that major Commodity countries and companies  own their own shipping fleets. 

This article backs up my reasoning of why the BDI fell when the commodity boom roared on. 

IT had more than a few defaltionists scuppered. But ask yourself...If you are BHP, Rio TINTO or Vale, would you really rely on ship hire! NOPE....I think not! 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-27/china-s-shipping-companies-lobby-to-foil-vale-s-iron-ore-fleet.html

Breadth is running out of steam

There is a bearish divergence on the NAZ…not volume per se, but number of stocks holding up the market is falling and diverging. See Chart:

Historic Move in Gold Stocks Is Directly Ahead

By Jordan Roy-Byrne Jul 25, 2011 3:00 pm

Gold stocks are ready for a massive, potentially historic breakout at a time when the sector is underowned, undervalued, and a tiny fraction of the overall market.

A variety of factors are lining up that lead my firm to believe we are on the cusp of a major move higher in the gold stocks. We've been saying this for a while, but the reality is we are moving closer and closer to that moment. The fundamentals couldn’t be more obvious and being in the 11th year of a bull market means the timing is ripe. We think you will find the facts and conclusions extracted from the technicals, sentiment, and valuations very compelling.

First let's look at the technical aspect with the Barron's Gold Mining Index. Gold Stocks basically consolidated from about 1937 to 1961. The breakout really began in 1964. The consolidation ranged from about 17 to 50. The breakout took the market from 50 to about 220 and in only four years. Today we are on the cusp of a similar breakout. The market made a marginal high in 2008 and another marginal high earlier this year. A sustained move to new highs will qualify as a major multi-decade breakout. 

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gold-stocks-gold-price-gold-market/7/25/2011/id/35936

Dollar Falls to Record Low, Stocks Slide

By Stephen Kirkland and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Jul 26, 2011 4:46 PM ET

The dollar slid to a record low versus the Swiss franc, stocks fell and the cost of insuring U.S. debt rose to a 17-month high as Democrats and Republicans continued to wrangle over competing plans to cut the deficit.

The dollar depreciated against all 16 major peers at 4 p.m. in New York and earlier dipped below 80 centimes versus the franc. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.4 percent to 1,331.94 and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed down 0.4 percent. Credit-default swaps on U.S. debt increased two basis point to 58 basis points. The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities climbed 0.6 percent, rebounding from a 0.7 percent drop, as zinc, cotton and copper added at least 1.7 percent.

The Obama administration threatened a presidential veto of House Speaker John Boehner’s two-step plan to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and cut $3 trillion in government spending. Stocks were also pressured after home prices fell the most in 18 months, 3M Co. (MMM) forecast earnings that trailed analyst estimates and United Parcel Service Inc. said the third quarter will be “fairly slow.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-26/asia-stocks-gain-u-s-futures-oil-fall-before-obama-speech-on-debt-limit.html

What the Debt Ceiling Means to You!

From Minyanville
By Todd Harrison Jul 27, 2011 10:15 am


In 2008, I offered that the crisis would cycle through the financial, economic, and social spheres. It now appears to have infected the political spectrum as well.

As European leaders navigate the most dangerous economic juncture in the history of the Eurozone, stateside policymakers have been on a mission all their own -- to arrive at a bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling.

While this topic is confusing to many Americans, it is actually quite simple: The United States has been writing checks at such a feverish pace that its coffers are running dry. Unless the legal cap that the federal government is allowed to borrow -- the debt ceiling -- is raised, our country will run out of money.

Before you react to that scary fact, please remember that the debt ceiling has been raised 74 times since 1962 -- averaging roughly once per year -- and most of the current debate is predicated on political infighting, competing agendas, and shameless self-promotion. 
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/todd-harrison-debt-ceiling-debt-ceiling/7/27/2011/id/35971?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=Fool

“PIGS FLY AND PRICES GO NUTS”

Written and published by Richard Benson, www.sfgroup.org

When business slows down over the summer months, I finally have some time to reflect and do a little economic detective work and, yes, an occasional jig saw puzzle. Trying to figure out what is going on in the world these days is extraordinarily similar to putting the pieces of a puzzle together. Within the pile of pieces, you know there’s a picture somewhere but until you snap those last few pieces into place, the puzzle won’t be complete.

The latest puzzle I wanted to solve began when I went to the supermarket and picked up one of the few items my wife let’s me buy, which is a large jar of cashews. I seem to recall a few years ago they were $7, last year, they spiked to $11, and now, suddenly, they’re $15. Because my beloved nuts rose in price so much it has driven me nuts, and I had to understand why!

Numerous articles that I’ve read recently in the financial press and elsewhere about China have put some pieces of the puzzle into place. In one, the Chinese apparently have developed a real taste for cashews and are buying them up left and right, driving up the price. In another, an article titled “Pigs Fly” in the Wall Street Journal mentioned hog prices and raising the daily limit on China buying American pork. Now, just as the Chinese are buying massive amounts of American corn and other grains, front page news shows both a massive heat wave and long-term drought in the US gravely affecting agriculture. Higher demand and restricted supply are forcing food prices up.

The Chinese love pork which amounts to over half of the meat they consume. Needless to say, the price of this meat is up 38 percent since the beginning of this year, which is a national concern in China. Fearing food riots, the Chinese government has recently released a large quantity of frozen pork from their strategic pork reserves to keep up with demand.

While America and other countries have strategic oil reserves, only China has a strategic pork reserve which tells you how important the price of hogs (and other food items) is. Food prices in China have been rising about 13% in the past year.

Normally, I wouldn’t make much of a connection between pigs flying and the price of nuts, but China’s policy last year to double the wages of working Chinese by offering wage hikes of 20 percent, and another 20 percent this year, was intended to prevent food riots. As long as the government keeps their promise going forward to raise wages, workers can continue to buy their sacred pigs. Feeding pigs requires more corn. Indeed, higher wages in China wouldn’t be a big issue for America except for the fact that there are 1.3 billion Chinese, they’re hungry, and now they have cash to spend. Another key piece to the puzzle just snapped into place!

The Chinese government is also still running trade surpluses selling Americans manufactured doodads and toys, and has amassed over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves they can use to spend on hogs, cows, chickens, corn, wheat, soybeans, rice, nuts, and anything else they may need to eat. Indeed, China could buy every bushel of grain and every farm animal in America with the money we have given them, and hardly dent their foreign exchange holdings.

So, when I look at the last piece of this summer’s puzzle, the picture is pretty clear. If you’re an American, it’s not a pretty picture. Food prices are not going to be determined by Americans, whose wages and jobs are stagnant. Food prices are going to be determined by the Chinese who outnumber us four to one, and whose wages are soaring, and whose government has over $3 trillion in spare change to buy food for them. So, when you go to the supermarket because you want to get something to eat you might not be able to afford it. China will likely buy our food with our money, and just leave us the scraps. For the next few years, count on food prices continuing to go nuts!

China’s mountain of debt, explained

Debt is the economic scourge of our time.

First it buried American banks and mortgage holders. Then we learned that euro zone governments such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland were in hock over their heads. Japan’s debt is twice the size of its annual economy. And in Washington this month, Republicans and Democrats are engaged in brinksmanship over the American taxpayer's $14 trillion hole. 

Through it all, China has been seen as the stalwart of financial prudence. But we now know that the country faces its own challenges. 

As GlobalPost has reported in the past, China's banks have been engaging in risky “off balance sheet” lending somewhat reminiscent of Enron’s shenanigans. Last week, Beijing released a national audit revealing that local governments owe an estimated $1.65 trillion in outstanding loans. This week, Moody’s has indicated that the problem is significantly worse, by as much as $540 billion. And that's only local government debt. It doesn’t include the central government’s huge obligations, or those of banks that are essentially guaranteed by Beijing.

Even for a miracle economy like China's, that’s a lot of debt.

To put this in perspective, GlobalPost interviewed Victor Shih, an expert in China’s economy, who has been following the debt situation closely. Shih, an assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University, holds a Ph.D. in government from Harvard. (The interview has been condensed and edited by GlobalPost.)

GlobalPost: Put this in perspective for us: How much debt does China have?

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/110707/china%E2%80%99s-mountain-debt-explained

For debt crisis lessons, look back 225 years

By John Blake, CNN

July 24, 2011 -- Updated 1019 GMT (1819 HKT)

(CNN) -- America's political leaders are paralyzed. The government is reeling from debt. Corrupt bankers foreclose on people's homes as a brutal recession sweeps the land.

We're talking, of course, about the great debt standoff of 1786: Shays' Rebellion.

Nervous Americans glancing at the upcoming August 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling are being told that the nation is entering uncharted territory. But historians say they've seen this movie before.

Many of the same issues driving this modern-day standoff -- disagreement on how to handle the national debt, ineffective government and a populist citizen's revolt -- drove the 18th-century uprising that's been called America's first civil war.

Historians say the lesson that can be drawn from Shays' Rebellion and other transformative events in U.S. history is this: Protracted political gridlock is seldom resolved through compromise. It comes when one political party finally beats the other down.

Many Americans, however, have told pollsters that they want the political parties to work together to solve the debt ceiling crisis. Yet political stability doesn't always come through give-and-take, some historians say.

"There are times when only the outright defeat of political enemies can bring about needed reform," says Richard Striner, a history professor at Washington College in Chestertown, Maryland.

"It was only by confronting and defeating the aggressive leadership of the slave states that Lincoln and the Civil War Republicans rid the nation of slavery."

The fight over 'big government'

Shays' Rebellion was such a crisis. Rooted in economic anxiety and political turmoil, it even involved a leader of a tea party.

The country had incurred massive debt during the Revolutionary War. But it couldn't pay it off because the Colonists, distrusting "big government," had created the Articles of Confederation to run the country, which weakened the authority of a central government.

The result was anarchy.

The federal government wasn't allowed to raise taxes to pay off war debts. Various states responded with crushing taxes. Shady bankers in states such as Massachusetts foreclosed on farmers' homes and threw people in debtors' prison. Some thought the country would dissolve.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/07/22/debt.crisis.lessons.history/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

Sunday (NOT SO) Fun: The Fictional Jobs Agenda

Clipped from the Disciplined Investor

In the editorial section of IBD this weekend, there was an excellent article that caught my eye. As all of the gamesmanship and immaturity has been focusing on the debt ceiling, the news coverage regarding the poorly execute jobs recovery plan has apparently been shifted – at least temporarily. With the recent display of political grandstanding and empty promises, does anyone still believe that his administration, along with Congress, has any idea on how to get the U.S. back to growth?

Promise were made that the enormous amount of stimulus would be used to bring down the unemployment rate and we now know how that has worked out. So, what have we been left with? A no-win situation where the choices will be to increase the debt-ceiling in order to pay the bill, increased taxes to pay back the money borrowed and a cut in the spending that was used to provide benefits during a time of a national economic emergency. In other words, the U.S. now has an inconceivably high tab to pay for the spending spree that didnothing more than buy us some more time.

Of course, if the government did not step in during the height of the financial crisis, we would have entered a prolonged depression with high unemployment and a series of institutional failures. At least that is what we have been told. So, Uncle Sam footed the bill for not only the U.S, but also  many foreign entities.

http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2011/07/24/sunday-not-so-fun-the-fictional-jobs-agenda/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

Kevin Slavin: How algorithms shape our world

Australia safe from debt crisis: OECD

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US raiders eye Aussie pubs

GRETCHEN FRIEMANN

Off to the pub . . . Woolworths and Westfarmers stranglehold on licenced premises is under threat. Photo: Nicolas Walker

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