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26 comments:
With futures all over the Place, I really like this one:
A Friendly Reminder
by WeeklyTA, Chart,ly Blog
"People are trying to guess what the market is going to do at the moment and I implore you to stop.
Exceptionally large consolidation ranges make is extremely difficult to ‘guess’ what the market will do next.
I, myself, refuse to make any predictions on what will eventually happen because the$MACRO picture is completely out of our control"
GEAB is the Dutch think-tank that publishes the always doomerish 'LEAP 2020'. Personally, I don't find them very credible, since they have often predicted some outcome that did not happen. Makes a good read though, for your daily dose of doom, if your doom tank was getting low.
I don't place any faith in the "futures" for US stocks. Probably the most manipulated market on earth.
Interesting to watch, but predictive value is not that great, they are like a little world of their own that seems pretty detached from reality. A large run up in the futures can evaporate by 10 AM, or a large drop can be reversed.
Global markets could be crashing, but in NY the futures are up - maybe the 'future' has a perma-Bullish bias.
Jake is a fun blogger. Witty, clever, if only he would quit buying shares of MonSatano et al.
ZH: "With the Euro Disintegrating, You Can Calculate Your Haircuts Here"
Reggie Middleton details his take (Bearish) on the Euro and it's members. Also explains his investing style and how he trades the market on his analysis.
Not all the data is open to the public but a good analysis. I find his balance sheet logic hard to argue with.
Listened to Bob Hoye .mp3, he likes shiny metals but says to sell the miners and wait for a better entry.
mugabe - GaW beat me to it. GEAB is a doomy newsletter that tries to present itself as the product of something more than a blogger or a tipster - some of what they have said in the past has been right, and I used to read all their free stuff at one time because I felt I was getting too much of an American perspective. I have noticed that since the Greek crisis most of the American blogs have become a lot less parochial - a good thing.
But GaW is right; GEAB / LEAP is unremittingly bearish and would not have helped make anybody any money in the last 14 months.
FT Alphaville: "It is open to UK ministers to argue they have more freedom to manoeuvre than their counterparts in Athens because they are not hemmed in by euro commitments. But holders of sterling assets are unlikely to take comfort from assurances that currency depreciation offers a way out of the UK’s policy bind. Rather, they might reasonably conclude that a crisis of confidence in UK finances would less likely conform to the pattern in the euro zone, where sovereign yield spreads have ballooned, but more likely follow the traditional course of a sterling slide culminating in IMF intervention."
As I predicted, the new UK Government has looked in the cupboards and found them bare, and the shelves gone too. Labour seems to have spent like drunken Labourites always do - way more than they should have.
Euro shorts are most likely lining up the GBP for their next target, "it is interesting to note that GBP is already being set up for a fall" (charts from Barclays' Capital)
If the UK ptb wasn't beholding to do the bankstas bidding they'd be in the [driver's seat].
Dave Skarica latest .mp3, he admits to being completely wrong on the Euro... then goes on to predict the US $ will fall. I think he has a bias against the US $ that is blocking his macro vision. He admits every nation is QEing and printing though - odd viewpoint IMHO.
Quotes the old saying "markets can remain irrational...." - no, I think the market is being perfectly rational on the Euro - panic and exit out was the right course of action for Euro holders, a few months ago. Perhaps his initial analysis that the US $ was weaker than the Euro was irrational.
At some point (1-2-3 years out) he comes to the same conclusion I have - the pendulum will turn on the US $ and it will fall, as the USA has not begun to address it's Budget yet. This is correct, but calling a 2-3-4 year trading run against the Euro a "short term" trade is just plain wrong, to me. That's an Age in trading.
He predicts the Euro will bottom soon (but mentions parity to the US $ as a possible price target) and then rally. It may, in a dead feline rebound, but it seems too early yet for the Euro to find a real bottom, this crisis would require some more concrete resolution that could take several years. As it will for the US financial problems to come to the fore - the more capital that flows to US Bonds now, the less pressure is put on the US short term. Politicians in the US have a window of opportunity here, that they will no doubt fritter away.
He's Bullish on gold, price target maybe $2K this year or next. And Bullish on the miners. But has a neutral outlook, would not buy any miners here, or sell any - buy a future dip in miners rather, hold what you have.
Chart of the Week: VSTOXX,VIX and the risk of global contagion
"This week’s chart of the week is an attempt to reduce a hypothesis about global contagion to a simple ratio chart. The hypothesis is that whereas the VIX is the best measure of uncertainty in the U.S. stock market and the VSTOXX (which is based on the EURO STOXX 50) is the best measure of uncertainty for euro zone stocks, the ratio of the VSTOXX to the VIX should capture the relative uncertainty for euro zone stocks vs. U.S. stocks. One would expect, therefore, that if VSTOXX is rising faster than the VIX, that options traders are expecting much higher uncertainty (and downside risk) in the euro zone than in the United States. This type of action would support a decoupling theory in which stock markets in the euro zone and the U.S. would begin to move independently of each other. On the other hand, should the VIX be rising at the same rate as VSTOXX, this would suggest that uncertainty and risk are roughly the same in the euro zone and the U.S. and that the risk of global contagion is relatively high.
....VSTOXX peaked relative to the VIX three weeks ago, pulled back dramatically up to last week, then surged up through Friday, where the ratio had its second highest weekly close. The verdict from the ratio seems to be that the risk of global contagion is high, slightly below the all-time high, but on the rise."
Interesting concept, to chart global contagion risk.
TO THE FAZMOBILE!!
Why Goog could crush the coal ETF
Points to a future trend - companies want to 'greenwash' themselves to look "eco friendly" - which is really impossible for most of them by the nature of their business. Making it less dirty is good of course, less pollution great.
But what about Chindia, where they burn coal with wild abandon. Will "clean coal" tech make coal greenwashable, or over time, will enviro pressure cause coal burning to fade. But then they may use it in other processes than straight burning, conversion to liquid fuels, or whatever. What if 'clean' coal burning
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Newmont-Announces-Investor-prnews-2196135027.html?x=0&.v=1
ABX & GG getting hammered.
Very interesting technical analysis on China markets, long discussion of various indicators he uses and their effects:
Leading Indicators of the Shanghai Composite
'Options alert: substantial put buying on NEM' LOL
Mighty US $ on a run today. Other currencies suck to be in, except China.
Exactly what each others Central Bankstas are said to not want to happen, isn't it? Euro down hurts China exports too.
Not many predicted these amazing turns of events.
Toronto stocks dumping, and CAD $. Resources and commodities taking the risk aversion hit. Like, oil, now sliding down a slippery slope.
"...good news out of bad news??? sorry!"
Indeed. Apparently, Katla just hiccuped. Time to buy AG commodities?
tip of the day: LLTC. like the chart and the fundamentals
ps dyodd
Volcker: The Euro Is On The Brink Of Extinction
http://www.businessinsider.com/volcker-euro-dead-disintegration-2010-5
Thinking away from the herd, Europe is now addressing their debt problems with austerity measures. What happens in a few years when govs in Europe have done the hard yards and addressed debt problems, in that regard, Eu could be ahead of US as US does not seem to be employing any saving/austerity programs along with their QE...my prediction is the EU will pull out of their mire of debt first. What will be left in that wake as regards the look of the EU map is anyone's guess at the moment...
shaza, not sure about that. ireland, first eu country to implement austerity has gdp down something like 15% with an impossible debt burden.
When will US do this, this is why I think the end game could see US behind EU in eh debt department...when US tackles public debt, then we can talk!
Nightmare! What Spain's Brutal Austerity Budget Would Look Like Here
Gregory White | May. 13, 2010, 11:55 AM | 53,714 | 57
Spain has launched an assault on its public sector, targeting profligate spending in an effort to trim its deficit
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-portugal-budget-us-debt-2010-5#ixzz0oDsmjm5q
Bad news, Cramer just called the top. He told his retail sheeple to buy gold and said he was looking to buy also. That's powerful juju imo. The kiss of death to be cerain. Be afraid. Muahahahah!!
If Cramer is saying to buy gold then he is shorting it. The only top he knows it the top of his bald head.
Shaza the US are the owners of the world. We will never ever allow anyone to attain the level of power we now cherish.
Who would challenge us? Europe is a joke. Canada is our friend. South America has no armed forces. Russia and China need us. Both of their economies are in shambles.
We could wipe them both out in minutes with our ICBMs. Don't mess with the US or you will be sorry. We are the owners. We own you!
Maybe Antartica can wage war against us with penguins or Africa with their Air Force of none.
Iran is a fly that we will swat if they dare another terrorist attack. They will lay in ruins just like Iraq and Afghanistan.
Beware the American Eagle. We are psychopaths on a mission from God. We are the chosen ones.
All this is in jest of course.
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