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This seems to be good news! QB
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b00fe5da-0693-11df-b952-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
And who exactly was surprised by this?
Surprise rise in new US jobless claims
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92638e12-0696-11df-b952-00144feabdc0.html
I'll be happy when the guys who walk into 85 Broad Street are in the picture below it. QB
Special bonus link from Shaza
BARACK Obama has admitted to losing touch with the American people in his first year as President, after a stunning Senate election loss shifted the balance of power away from his Democratic Party.
35 comments:
Objective EW again:
Yesterday's decline was somewhat inconclusive of a potential rally top since the SPX held the OEW 1133 pivot and then rallied into the close. As a result we set some parameters. Today the market traded slightly higher and then within an hour broke through the OEW 1133 pivot. When this occurred we updated the SPX counts on the hourly and daily charts to a 'green' B. This is a tentative labeling for a Primary B wave high at SPX 1150. All of the technical/time parameters noted over the past several weekend updates have been satisfied, with the exception of the OEW 1168 pivot. With this last five wave rally from the SPX 1086 low likely completed, along with negative divergences on most timeframes, this should conclude the uptrend from July 09 at SPX 869.
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/Blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!66338.entry
GS die!!
Hi Edgar. Nice thought, but good luck with it especially now that (as you pointed out on your blog) GS and all the others can spend even more to run the "democratic process".
Watching the reaction to Obama's call for taxes on Wall Street, it was so amusing to hear all the whining, spoiled rich brats blame today's selloff on Obama. On CNBS Maria Bubblehead even called it "the war on Wall Street". I'm surprised she didn't call it "an unprovoked attack".
Well, that XOM trade sure looked good at the time I first mentioned it. On to the next one.
Did anyone profit the last two days. It is the worst two days I have seen back to back in a long time. Everything is down. Are we finally going to see a 1000 point correction if not more? What do the chart say?
Charts are telling me to raise cash, as it LOOKS like we're heading into a correction (on the SPY), and if so, could be as much as 10% from the high. See the GLD chart from its 12/3 peak for a similar example.
GLD itself has its 200 m.a. at about 96, so anything above that is something you just have to deal with in an ongoing bull market.
PK,
Re XOM, I've put the very tight stop on today, as I have on GDX. It bugs me to sell things that are oversold (typical sucker move), but:
a) The SPY looks bearish to me too, at least for the next week or so. This is my bellweather.
b) They've both broken their trendlines.
c) XOM is already a fair way below the 150 dma and GDX has just gone under it.
I've had an interesting tussle with myself about trading rules, especially the value of the oscillators versus trendlines. But the trendline must prevail, especially if backed up by a bearish looking SPY.
As my account has been skewed to the short side no damage done at all to the bottom line, but it's been a good learing experience about defining trading rules. it doesn't mean the rule will always be right (they never are), but if you havren't got any you're operating in a void or on gut feeling.
Mike Swanson is going to provide a free weekly market round-up starting this Friday. Given the week so far, should be interested. More info here...
http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/index
Anyone got e-mail from Skarica? I have not received anything since signing up late December. I did not subscribe, just the free membership - I was planning to pay, but it seems Dave does not want my money. I suspect my e-mails are trapped in his spam filter, but that is really no excuse for lack of any response. The window where I would give him my money has now closed.
I will check out Swanson stuff. One 'gure' who seems worth reading is Carl Swenlin, last time I looked at the guru ratings he was # 1. He writes a Blog for StockCharts on technical analysis. I am going to have a look at his recent writings.
Barry at Big Picture posts a chart with the very important comment about trend lines: "One last thing that few people admit: These trend lines are very subjectively drawn, and you can easily alter the outcome by selectively placing lines at bottoms or tops." This is why I find trend lines somewhat helpful but don't use them much for a trading signal.
Charts and Coffee - "China Story in Jeopardy" - "FXI (state owned China) and PGJ (momentum ADRs) are on the precipice of technical breakdown....If China breaks the 200 DMA, then objectively I classify FXI in bear mode which makes me want to avoid both FXI and PGJ...From a fundamental perspective, the market is partially driven by the story line of China booming and sucking up resources. The charts say that story is in jeopardy. We can’t go higher without that story line in place....So if China goes into bear mode, what do you buy? It may become hard to find stocks to buy. If I can’t find stocks to buy, it means to stay out of the market."
Headline: "Wall Street's former cover girl, Meredith Whitney, believes that Obama's new bank regulation plan will go through and "it will not be pretty for banks or consumers."
Peak Bankster has passed. Public anger will force what should have been down 30 months ago - serious reform of Wall St. Most of it their own fault - they pushed hard to win every battle, but are now losing the war.
They say 'financial lead the way' - the way forward looks to be a down elevator. There are so many forces lining up against the Banksters on a global scale that all their regulatory-loosening "gains" of the last 10 years could be rolled back.
I see a host of factors lining up against HB&B (Humongous Bank & Broker) that will see their size, power and influence vastly reduced. This process will take a few years, but I think the train has left the station.
Of course, the Banksters will retaliate by making credit so tight no one will be able to borrow money even if they wanted to - this is the where consumers will share the pain. I for one would be willing to cut up all credit cards and live all cash if it means Banksters lose power and influence. They are so hated now it will take a generation for that to fade, so 'creative financial engineering' is likely not to return for about the next 60 years till the next Kondratieff WInter, or about the time when people with memory of this crisis are gone.
Globally, forces are aligning against HB&B: "George Osborne, the Conservative lawmaker that shadows Darling in the U.K. Parliament, said that if elected his party would implement a similar plan to Obama’s in the U.K. A YouGov survey for the Sunday Times this week showed the opposition Conservatives at 40 percent, 9 points ahead of the ruling Labour party, with an election due by June." - Bloomberg
Any politician in any Western nation who wants to get elected or re-elected can sense which way the wind is blowing now. The only way, in fact, to get a politician to take a principled stand - the crystal clear realization that if they don't satisfy popular rage, they will be voted out be a landslide.
Obama is just the highest ranking pol to come to this unwelcome conclusion. The public mood has shifted so far to anti-Banksterism that the power of Bankster lobbyists and their campaign contributions have lost much of their usual mojo now.
The anti-regulatory effort they will expend is more likely to end in failure now than anytime in the last generation. They have over-played their hand out of arrogance, now it's reversion to the mean. That infers a Banking sector with smaller players and less influence.
Banksters will likely crash stock markets in response, this correction could get ugly.
Mugabe, I've struggled with maintaining discipline regarding trendlines before, where I'd seen many examples of a stock break below a TL one day, then hop right back above it the next. So I have a set rule of selling on 2nd day close below the line. I also hate to sell something that's oversold, but I have to stick with my plan. For me to change the plan, is like lowering my stop in midstream, almost rationalizing.
I don't believe the CONgreff knows how to do anything except follow orders. Until they take on the fed nothing will change.
edgar - Now is the time to press the attack. Banksters are now more vulnerable than anytime in the last 60 years. November mid-term elections in the US have them on the run - why do you think Obama had to get off his ass and say something anti-Bankster? It's not because he wanted to, his hand was forced by the one thing a politician fears above all else - losing the next election.
The window of opportunity is now open for a year or two. It is time to stop being so cynical and stand up and fight for what you believe. The power of a social mood turning is vast, it just needs to be harnessed. Seize the moment.
If Republicans do not get behind this popular sentiment, they open the door to a new third Party to rise, angry and fresh. I see a host of reasons all aligning, most out of self-interest, but against the Banksters. This represents a significant change - the Bull market in Banksterism is now over, now comes the Bear.
If the Banksters manage to frustrate this popular mood by corrupt influence in Washington, they will just highlight the increased risk of systemic collapse under the crushing weight of 'stay-the-course' corruption. And consign al ltheir political allies to defeat - the rats are already fleeing the sinking ship, see Barney Frank and Chris Dodd - two of the most influential pro-Bankster pols leaving Washington.
I can appreciate your cynicism, but it also carries within the wrong attitude - "Nothing will change! Why bother? It's hopeless!" If everyone took that attitude, nothing would ever change. Even if the outcome is not ideal, it is better to fight for what is right and take a chance, than to just throw up your hands and say "Nothing I can do!". In the worst case, nothing does change, but at least you can say you tried and fought with honor.
FT Alphaville: "According to the Sydney Morning Herald individual state royalty taxes would be scrapped and replaced with a national (Australian) resources tax (the Henry Tax ) that would be levied on profits.
The tax could be set at 40 per cent, levied on a project by project basis, and be deductible from company tax, the paper said.
The view among analysts is that the tax is clearly not good news for the likes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton or Xstrata."
This tax may not pass in Australia in that form (miners and States will be hugely opposed), but it does point to a global risk for miners: nobody likes them, they are seen as environment raping scum, so pols can score easy points by taxing them more.
"In our view, this has much wider impacts. Australia once again appears to be paving the way forward as it did with raising interest rates. Higher taxes across the globe would appear inevitable given the amount of debt that has been transferred from the private to public balance sheet. The market appears to have become complacent towards the transition whereby the private sector will end up supporting the public sector, rather than the reverse situation we have enjoyed for the past year."
gmak comment at evil: "I don't know if anyone else has noticed (kudos if you did) but the SPX daily is currently below the 50 DMA (simple). It was here at the end of october when the latest bear head fake occured. I'm NOT saying that this is a head fake - just putting the move in perspective, that SPX can still run up from here going forward into March.
My "Since Aug 17" SPX trend line is still intact, although SPX came close to it at the low. The number for today is 1097.50 (SPX). A close before here would be meaningful in a bearish sense....Above 1115 on a close is bullish (SPX)."
Watch the last 15 minutes to see the real move now I think.
Got A Watch said...
edgar - Now is the time to press the attack. Banksters are now more vulnerable than anytime in the last 60 years...
Bullshit! Greenpan > Bernanke > Kohn, it's one kleptoctratic jew banker after another and that will never change. I'm not talking about religion, I'm talking about philosophy. They get richer and we get poorer, that is an immutable law. Everything else is for show. You think Hopey gives a flying f$ck? He just wants his ripoff policies (crap and tax, health scam) to go forward which benefit his masters and make him filthy rich on clownbux. The people have no-one, and never will.
I am somewhere between GAW and Edgar. I hope GAW is right and the time to press is now. On the other hand I see Edgars point that we don't have any leadership. No one to rally around. Obama doesn't have my vote nor anyone else who is bankster supported in the Midterms. I think Cap and Trade is an awful idea. IMHO the Healthcare plan, without a public option, is a toothless tiger and a boon for big Pharma and the Insurance industry. I just don't have enough knowledge of how complex the system is to say what the answer is and even then it would just be an opinion.
I have a good Technical Analysis post for tonight that Shaza sent me, but I got up late and didn't have time to post it in the morning.
Do you really believe that the billionaire regime has suffered any kind of setback at all by Brown's election? Or Dodd's retirement? Or Hopey's recent populist rhetoric? They own both parties. If a strong third comes along they will corrupt them too. In the meantime they own everything, they get richer and more powerful by the day. They own the media brainwash machine, the printing press, the stock and bond markets. The public will do their bidding for a crust of bread. I say it is hopeless because it is hopeless.
You guys are too cynical. I am not going to live in hopelessness.
It is no coincidence that the original Glass-Steagall Act was passed in the wake of the last great financial crisis. That time in history has rolled around again.
That's why I mean they are vulnerable now in the way they weren't even last year. The social mood is a slow turning ship, but when it does turn it can get ugly. The rise of the internet is a black swan for 'business as usual' and the PTB. They don't control the news flow anymore - you can see this from the whining of old-style media barons like Murdoch about Google.
We get our hard news from Blogs and non-MSM websites now. Everybody knows what you see on TV is just propaganda. When people see what is just wrong, they get angry, and that anger has focused on the financial sector.
Interesting comments.
Re GMak on TA, I would say look less at the 50 dayt moving average, and more at oversold (not at all on SPY) and trendlines (broken for gthe first time),
Re Barry non trendlines, this is a trendline going form the beginning of March (on SPY), no skewing here. The main criticsm that can be levelled against this trend line is that it was only touched once until recently when the SPY snaked along it and then broke it. It looks negative to me.
Re bankers, this is a good time to try and go in for the kill. Edgar may be right, but his quietism leads absolutely nowhere and guarantees that no change will happen.
Morwe on trendlines. Thje killer is if you use log scale or non-log scale. The trendline is somewhat different!!
Gold looks like it is hitting its low. On Jan 30 release of COT DAta we should also see if the huge overhang has been cleansed and the momo speculators pushed out, but next Tues Data won't show until 30th!
QB, if I send you a COT DATA chart would you mind posting it...will take 2 mins for me to send?
I will post with that TA article that i said I would post this morning. I will be on Skype tonight. If anyone who is new to Skype and wants to join in we usually just type like a chat room. My screen name is msjen123. The service is free.
Hey Bee
I thought your blog would be a bit more classier than to carry comments about "kleptocratic jew bankers". Will you be adding stormfront.org to your blogroll?
Here in the UK our banksters are all full blooded Scotsmen e.g. McKillop, Goodwin and Crosby, with the hapless and only prominent Jew amongst them, Sir Victor Blank, unusual for the stereotype, being ripped off by the one eyed son of a Protestant minister in to buying the ever crappy HBOS.
regards
Jim
PS Is not Dimon a Greek American?
Re gold, in USD terms I had three buy in points for long-term accumulation (as posted a while back). We've just got to ythe first one (100 day sma). There are, however, two more- bother lower.
SPY getting never oversold short and medium term but there's still easily room for it to go down just based on the oscillators.
Interesting levels are 150 day MA (104.5) and signifcant resistance at 100, Currently at 109.6.
As the bard said:
Bankers, whether Jew, Norse, or Scot
Do most assuredly deserve to be shot
@Bhagwhan It struck a nerve with me too. I wasn't sure how to react. I didn't want to censor it, but I will go on record that I do not approve of racial stereotyping.
I will let this one pass but, I will delete them in the future. Edgar is an edgy commentor on this blog, but Edgar I think you know went just a tad over the line. I will send you an email as to my feelings and apologies to all on the board.
From Charts and Coffee
I think this selloff has some teeth and I think we’ll see the 200 DMAs tested on the major indexes. China is broken. FXI has already broken through its 200 DMA and is hanging onto horizontal support at $39. I think we should get a bounce before this support is broken, but expect a lower high and potentially the completion of an inverse head and shoulders.
Other bearish factors:
1. EURUSD is broken and trading below its 200 DMA. Objectively bearish.
2. $VIX has moved above its 200 DMA for the first time since the rally started. On a relative basis, obviously the VIX has moved into a new range. On an absolute basis, a VIX around 30 makes it more dangerous to play in the market. I previously mentioned that crashes and big down days don’t generally come out of nowhere. Almost all the big selloffs occur when the market is trading below its 200 DMA and with an elevated VIX. While we haven’t reached those kinds of conditions, this spike on the VIX should be heeded.
If you parse through the major ETFs, you will also see that most of them are below their 50 DMA and many are below their 89/100 DMAs.
For the foregoing reasons, I’m not buying this selloff as a support bounce. I therefore don’t have any long ideas for next week.
It is time to be cautious and I have been selling some positions, however, I do not believe it is time to short stocks. This may very well just be a pullback. I can’t tell yet and there is no point in guessing.
Like I have been saying for weeks, if this is more than a small pullback, there will be plenty of time to jump on the short train.
The one thing you don’t want to do is get whipsawed by playing both sides of the fence right here. That could be a dangerous recipe."
I('ve been playing both long and short side so far thus year, with a bit more emphasis to the short side. Net result; account has barely moved since beginning of the year.
Bee
Thanks for that! Apart from Dimon being a Greek American, is not Paulson a Christian Scientist? "Banksterism" is a trait common to all human beings, its better known as greed or selfishness, they just exhibit to a superhuman level, which is why they also love to be called "Titans" or "masters of the universe"
regards
Jim
You're welcome Jim. The new post will move the conversation and I have another tonight.
Edgar, did you see that ANON comment on ZH yesterday accused Obama of turning on a dime to save his own skin...i will find and try to post at your site, it was well said...Shaz
Short sharp market review from the Underbelly of the world:
Australia:
THE MARKET IN REVIEW.
Despite losses amongst the resource sector on Monday, banking stocks led Australian equities to a higher close. On Tuesday, profit taking caused the Australian share market to end the trading session in the red. By mid-week, BHP Billiton reported better-than-expected production volume for December and Australian stocks closed slightly higher. The Australian share market edged lower on Thursday with continued worries over China's decision to limit bank lending. Negative leads from the United States and China sent Australian stocks sharply lower on Friday. Concerns over China and the U.S. banking sectors caused Australian shares to finish the week lower, overall.
DO NOT PANIC
Yes, It's Happening; VIX Surges To Over 27.50 As Panic Grips Market
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/yes-its-happening-vix-surges-over-2750-panic-grips-market
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