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19 comments:
Six banks fail, in Florida, Georgia and California.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/29/news/economy/bank_failures/index.htm
Foreclosures new hot spots
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/real_estate/1001/gallery.New_foreclosure_hot_spots/index.html
Overall I think things are looking up for the criminals who created this mess. Davos was a joke and I could have posted tons of info on it, but the question is why? Same banksters and politicians are conspiring as to how to keep power and gain more.
No redactions! AIG reveals the full story.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wanna see for yourself the confidential AIG documents that lawmakers are up in arms about? Go to SEC.gov.
On Friday, the bailed-out insurance giant made public the complete details of the most controversial aspect of its $181 billion bailout: a decision to use taxpayer funds to make the troubled insurer's business partners whole.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/29/news/companies/aig_sec/index.htm
Halfway thro my weekly review of charts, and once again I'm looking at GAZ (the graveyard of many bottom callers).
It's just hit the its more or less horizontal trendline (again) and has been in a wedge for a good while now (the top bit of which happens to coincide with the 150 sma more or less). This looks like a good risk risk reard play. Buy on some strength, and exiit if it breaches the lower trendline (which has been intact for a good while now), It's also getting near to the apex of the wedge and even if it went horizontal form here that would constitute a breakout. In addition, the performance of GAX (down, down down and stabilising) has absolutely no correlation with the overall market.
As GAW said, guaranteed refund on what you paid for this.
To me by far the moist interesting chart is XLF, followed by GS. XLF has flat-lined with modest decay for the last two years. I've seen this before. If XLF & GS break to the down-side look out broader market! The upside is negligible imo.
Disclosure: I only watch I don't play in rigged markets.
I need to start a newsletter called
"My best Sportsbook picks of the week for the mind boggling price of just 29.95. Shipping and handling are free.
In addition if you order now, I will throw in a Ginsu knife and my infallible stock picks of the week. These are based on tried and true dartboard and coin flip technical analysis. Money back guarantee if your bookie breaks anything.
Mugabe if you are correct there is a breakout on Monday I will jump in. Thank god you offered the money back guarantee. LOL
Thank you and Edgar for the insight.
I can only hope that when the light is shined on the GS cockroaches that their stock tanks even more than it has. The make money the gold old fashioned way "They steal it."
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_US_TAIWAN_ARMS_SALES?SITE=FLDAY&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
QB,
I'd like to see it above 13.15 to try an entry. GAZ has headfaked lots of people, including Used over at Mish, and Charts and Coffee who has given up trading it basically because every time he traded it, the trade went wrong(!). I wouldn't be suprised to see it hesitate or possibly bounce back a bit when it hits the overhead wedge, but as long it doesn't crucify the lower trendline it's worth maintaining (mo). (The upper line which forms the upper part of the wedge starts at the high about 2/3 of the way thro October.)
QB, when i say if it went horixontal form here it would break the wedgev to the upside, i don't mean on Monday! It would need to go horizontal for longer than that. Anyway, hopefully when you pull up a chart you'll see what I mean.
Idle speculation: the SPX broke out of a trading rangre and then crashed through the bottom of it. Assuming that the move below the trading range will mirror the move above, we'd be looking for a short term pivot to get a bounce at around 1055. This coincides with Tony Caledero's bounce level at 1054-1068. He then thinks we would get a 50%+ retracement.
We're currently at 1074. So, for short terms, possibly better to go long on strength.
I'd be careful with any natty play. Natural gas is always a tough racket. Over-valued stock, downside volatility. New shale technology has opened up a glut at ~ $5. The only thing that would jack prices would be insanely tough environmental legislation but I don't see that happening this year and next year we will likely have a republican CONgreff. There is increasing demand slowly building in the trannies though. If you insist on working the natty angle I would suggest long term legging in on CHK et al after they go BK.
@Mugabe I will look at the SPX chart as you said. Until I see some upward movement (and I don't expect any) I won't jump in. I am reading about shorting and puts this weekend. Thank you again for the heads up and the warnings. You too Edgar.
GAZ chart shows bearish 10/40 EMA and 15/65 EMA cross Jan 19, 19/39 bearish cross last Monday. Weekly 65/150 and 50/200 shows long term bearish trend since July '08 high of $83.64 ! and still running.
Weekly RSI-7 at 35.05 pointing down, it can go below 30 and stay there for protracted periods. Daily RSI-7 at 24.71, still room to fall some more before it will turn up, looking at past corrections. RSI-14s getting down towards 30, still room to fall there. RSI signals can give false indications at longer periods, RSI-7 seems better for short term trades, short-term counter-trend rallies can last 4 weeks or a bit longer.
Long-term trend could end in a few days around the lower $12.00s, the November low of $12.61 and August low of $12.01 would be next support areas, if there is any.
Or, longer-term trend could continue, as the price continues to fall under $12. Still, probably not much more room to fall, decline from $80s should be near to being over. Yet chart is not saying 'buy now' at this time, maybe in a few days.
There can be a spring rally in natural gas, could be good for a +25% rally. You can take a spec entry here, but I don't see any good technical chart reason to do so yet. Trying to time the bottom?
Anything to do with commodities is out of favor at the moment, there will not be a strong rally in those sectors till that investment theme turns around. Right now risk is not popular, and those trends can last for a few months before the psychology will turn.
Certainly later this year, I figure by Spring, as the days get longer and temps rise in the northern hemishpere. Spring is a time of hope and expansion, should bring a turn in commodity market psychology. Which would dovetail with an end to the US $ strength, and a return to risk. Till that happens, you are swimming upstream in any commodity/resource investment against the trend, with few exceptions IMHO.
I have been meaning to subscribe to StockCharts, but the free charts are doing the job just fine for now, since they added the live data feed recently. Ability to use more overlays would be nice, up to a point, but too many overlays makes for an overly cluttered chart that is hard to read. The feature that appeals is access to the 'Public Chart List' to post my own charts for all to see, so I will end up subscribing.
Pretty much every mining and resource stock I look at is saying the same sad thing: we've fallen, but we have not finished doing so yet.
Like the uranium miners, who are getting very oversold, but keep falling some more. EMAs are not hopeful either, pointing down - any bullish upwards crossovers are a ways away yet.
Found a couple junior uranium miners whose charts look positive, but this is a sector that is said to be lead by the majors and not the other way around. Plus volumes on these penny stocks are so small it is hard to take a significant position. The juniors can have several false starts before a real sector rally. Price of uranium has bit more to fall yet, from its chart, should bottom about 8%-10% lower than it is now near $40. Or the miners will take a further severe haircut. This is a sector you want to be in when it turns - returns should be very good, as the long term news flow for this sector is wildly positive, new reactors coming everywhere, though not soon.
GAW, I'm going mainly on chart patterns: the fact it's the bottom trendline and that wedge is getting smaller and smaller- than on indicators. I will buy on some stength as I said and religiously exit if bottom trendline is broken. Low risk as the exit is clear.
And if you look at the weekly indicators, there's also VERY bullish divergence on RSI 14, slow stochastic and MACD.
To my reading of the charts it looks like a good entry point once some strength has shown. To your reaidng -which is equally valid- it doesn't. The joys of TA!
GAW,
If you subscribe I will be tempted to do, too. It makes it a LOT easier to share.
"once some strength has shown" - well, that would put the RSI-7 at a "buy now" point, probably. I don't think we disagree much here.
Right now I can see an issue coming: when the resource and commodity sectors do turn around, they will probably do so as a group. So we can go from a situation with no or very few good entry points, to one with hundreds or thousands, all at once. I suspect this point will be in a few weeks, around March/April at a guess.
We need that change in market psychology to arrive before I wade in with large buying. I suppose you could start scaling in now, slowly, in anticipation. But it seems too early yet, that may change next week.
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