Time for a little comedy and reality mixed. It's only two minutes.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/tny_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/tny_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
Follow by Email
Queenbee's Blog List
-
Silver Update: Bernanke Boxed6 hours ago
-
thursday update14 hours ago
-
SAR #1314322 hours ago
-
S&P Sell Off – What Now?22 hours ago
-
Bernanke KIKs the Can2 days ago
-
The golden eye…1 week ago
The Queen's Link List
- Cara community
- Chris Martenson
- Factor Research and Trading
- Financial Sense
- Fred on Everything
- Howestreet
- Investment Postcards
- King World News
- macrobusiness au
- Naked Capitalism
- Of Two Minds
- Peter Brandt
- Reggie Middleton's Blog
- Seeking Alpha
- StockTwits Peter Brandt
- Truth Dig
- Uncommon Wisdom
- Zero Hedge
15 comments:
QB, that is so funny...but I did not send that...did I???? I think the thanks goes to someone else! BUT whatever, it is hysterical! Shaz
Awesome!
Go, go, go little Queenie!!!
According to Mole, the market is about to break out of this range.
And GLD is quietly up almost 1%.
Sorry Shaza no you didn't send it. I found in on http://inpoints.blogspot.com/
You did send me that link to look at something else. I found this video on it. It was too funny to pass up.
Matt Taibbi is featured today from a Morning Joe program and another good one below the Fred video on that same blog.
P.K. - Thx for link to Quantifiableedges, I had that one bookmarked from a long while back but had not looked at it for ages. Some interesting thoughts there, but at $750/year I am not sure if it is worth it for small traders. Sentimenttrader is $250/year and seems to offer more for 1/3 the money.
The most interesting paid service I have seen for a while is Retracement Levels, a historical pattern/Fibonacci odds calculation tool that is based on all historical market data (including intra-day!) going back 20+ years - the data set alone is much bigger than any other I am aware of, the guy has been working on this thing for about 11 years now. But it is pricey - $2,800K/year now plus a trading course costing $4,795, it used to be $79/month, but a lot of pro fund managers subscribe so they jacked the price to keep subscriber numbers down, he does not want everyone to use the indicators or they become less effective for subscribers. I think he just lowered the price actually, it was $4K/year last time I looked, so maybe he priced it too high. Too pricey for me, I think, as a small trader ($150K trading account).
OTOH it is worth if it makes you money. On that basis, I think there are paid services that are both cheaper and more relevant for the small trader. Personally, I am trying to get away from paying and instead figure things out on my own, but I remain open to new ideas.
Which leads me to another thought, that too much input from too many "gurus" can cloud your thinking. What do you do when half of them want to go long, and the other half say it's time to go short - you end up making up your own mind anyway, after being confused by conflicting opinions.
I can't count how many times I have read some "expert" say 'A', but instead outcome 'B' happened. So I take them all with a grain of salt.
If it helps you to develop your own trading methods, then it is worth it. Teach a man to fish instead of giving him a fish...
What do others here think about following paid services trading recommendations? Which ones have worked for you? In my experience, a lot of these guys give great macro analysis (but that you can get that free all over the web anyway), it is their trading signals that have been questionable.
That's where using a fairly simple set of indicators (KISS) rather than getting too esoteric. Many traders and analysts seem to over-analyze, bringing too many factors into the decision making process that are not really that relevant either way. If a simple set of guidelines gets you say 60% success rate, if you add more layers of factors (and thus complexity/time)to get to 65%, is it worth it? At first glance you might say "of course!", but if the time and effort to reach a decision goes up, you probably end up doing fewer trades, looking for the setup that matches your expanded criteria.
It's a difficult point to wrestle with and a fine line - how much analysis is the right amount? It also reflects your personality, whether you can effectively cope with various levels of detail in an efficient an effective timely manner.
Am I am over-analyzing the over-analysis problem? Get the coin with heads on both sides and a dart board. Or how about astrology - IIRC the top performing hedge fund last year used astrology and moon phases analysis in all decisions (I'm sure it was not the only criteria), and they were more successful than almost anyone else.
That's it, I'm calling Madame Rosa.
Shaza - Yes, love Whalen and Institutional Risk Analytics.
http://inpoints.blogspot.com/
Just added to my blog list.
GAW, I just use Quant. Edges for the free site, same as this one - http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/. If I can get a better idea of what the bigger players are focused on (with moving avgs., there's no magic bullet, but if many look at, say 50 day and key off that, I find that useful), all the better. Same with fib. levels.
I do enough of my own work to just stick with the 2 (relatively) cheap sites I pay for--Sent. trader and Stratfor.
Here's something I'm working on that shows promise (bear with me): take a daily chart of any index and put 10 and 20 ma's on it. When the 10 crosses above the 20, buy. When it crosses back down, get out. Simple, right?
1) the good news is this catches (and keeps you in )most of the sustainable trends.
2)the bad news is there are MANY crossovers during trading ranges.
You would need to accept a lot of small losses, with the discipline and conviction that riding the next trend more than offsets the small losses.
Maybe using the same ma's on the A/D line or another indicator to define/signal the underlying trend. Or the slope of the 50 ma of the index.
This is a work in progress, but I can't get past the way these ma's DO ride the bigger trends.
Feel free to shoot this down, increasing my knowledge beats increasing my ego.
I think KISS is crucial. This is a big message I got after reading interviews with TA giants like Ralph Acampona and John Murphy in the book Heretics of Finance. After trying out all sorts of indicators they've gone back to the basics: trendlines, couple of moving averages, couple of indicators and not much else.
Re paid services, at the moment I wouldn't want to subscribe to any paid services as I think it can cloud your thinking and get you away from KISS.
from mugabe:
PK, re your system, have you tried it on weeklies rather than dailies?
@GAW on paid services etc--
Short answer--a reasonable paid service is probably useful as "training wheels" in the first year or so of trading, whether there is $$$ profit or not--the profit is in learning what works for you in terms of what to look at and how to think.
The only money I have paid for training that I would "do over" was for a Trading Psychology course that I spent a lot of time researching before buying.
Really long blather follows:
I used to subscribe to a couple paid services (primarily technically-based, but with some commentary). Still have a subscription to a very excellent fundamental analysis site that will not be renewed (the info is very good, but doesn't pay out in the current market).
My own trading style is very simple, based on support resistance and "line of least resistance". I really don't even look for patterns per se, just MAs, support and resistance areas based on trendlines, fibs, channels, etc, across multiple timeframes. Used to use a ton of indicators, no longer.
That may not work for others.
I think it is very important to clearly/objectively view the market and oneself. If my view of the market is clouded, or I am trying to project my thoughts/beliefs onto the market, I might be lucky on some trades. That is the problem with with a lot of sites and "the commentariat" on some of them--a bias creeps in that forms the basis of trading. It's good to understand the fundamental true structure of things as part of a long-term plan, but expecting that to impact the market the way I want on my trading timeframe almost always costs me money.
Can I take each trade and find in it behaviour that I need to duplicate, and behaviour that I need to get rid of?
There are many good books out there; "Reminiscences" I think says it all, but you have to read it several times AND be open to all it says (like after a loss that really stung). Realize this is info from someone who was able to move a market, rather than folks like us who have to know how to tag along.
Mugabe, just now considering the weekly charts with the same settings. I'm thinking they would provide the overall trend, using dailies for the trigger. If the 10 week is above the 20, use daily crossovers only for longs, short only if weekly shows the opposite.
This all depends on one's time frame for trades.
This whole revelation struck me when I noticed how the crossover on the daily chart rode the SP500 right through from mid March to mid June. A time of all kinds of noise that the m.a.'s would help one to ignore.
Edgar, I dedicate this link to you !
Fed's Fisher Speaks - Geithner Cringes
Posted by: Bruce Krasting
Post date: 09/29/2009 - 22:17
More tough talk from a Fed Governor. The problem with talking tough is if you do not back it up with action you look soft. If that is the way this plays out the weak link is still the dollar. If they raise rates as they say they will it is going to dramatically increase the cost of funding the mega-trillions of short term debt that Geithner has floated on our behalf.
http://www.projectconnect.com.au/Project_Details.asp?PID=213
Edgar, and this:
Central Banks: The Pimps of the World Economy
All global economic problems today are rooted in the existence of Central Banks and their commitment to an application of destructive Keynesian economic theories to our global monetary system that simply has not worked for the better part of this century. Within the realm of academics, monetary policy, politics and media, there is a persistent refusal to acknowledge the primary role Central Banks undertake in artificially creating boom-bust cycles that would not occur in such severe fashion were Central Banks simply willing to step out of the way and allow free market forces to operate.
Zero hedgde...
THE WORLDWIDE INITIATIVE TO PERMANENTLY END FINANCIAL FRAUD
http://www.endfinancialfraud.org/
Please visit
I am glad you all liked the video. Nice to change things up ocassionally. I see gold bullion up nicely today by 16.00. Gold and Silver coins have been my best investment.
I am starting to become concerned as the more it goes up, the more I feel we are getting to the end of the megabanks and the Feds ability to manipulate the markets.
How long will the rest of the world support our lifestyle? How long can Bernanke keep the Titanic afloat? Is that the fat lady getting ready to sing?
Post a Comment