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Everyone screaming over everyone else and KD cannot get his point across.
At least KD can respond in a reasonable video and why he is the best on the web.
10 Thursday AM Reads
14 minutes ago
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35 comments:
queenbee,
thanks for the answer re vvest.
Re stock screeners, it would be interesting to know what parameters people search for. as I've asked, here is my current modus operandi
I'm curent toying with:
above 200day ma, 50 day mvonig av and 20 day moving av.
same as above but below 20 day moving av.
between 10% and 30% above 200 day ma.
I also look for market cap above 1B and over 500k daily volume
I then first look at 5 year weekly chart to get a good sense of pespective: there's no noise there!!
obviously these screens throw about loads of canddates and you then need to look at the chart.
the screeners I use are finviz (which has been referenced before) and the yahoo finance advanced screener (java based and FREE) which is surprisingly good.
PS 10 dollars for a lunch! not in cris-ridden Madrid. 10.5 euros absolute cheapèst, and not available at weekends. daylight robbery!!
I just received this by email. Thought it was quite good:
Successful traders wait until the trade comes to them rather than trying to force the trade. They exercise discipline in their trading and generally are able to ignore that "little voice" in their heads that may suggest they let a loss run just a little more. The loss that runs just a little more often runs a whole lot more. The successful traders don't rush to cut profits while the unsuccessful frequently grab the profit as soon as it appears because the "little voice" suggests that the price could turn down. The successful trader employs some strategy that results in following the move up with an exit that is only activated when some pre-determined turn down (for a bullish play) occurs.
The unsuccessful traders are almost universally impatient. They may jump in without waiting for a good entry (such as one where there is a nearby exit in the event they are wrong on direction). They might pull the plug on the slightest adverse move, apparently failing to realize that is the natural action of the market for stocks to move up and down. If they buy a stock that is trending upward, for example, they may abandon ship on the first little downward move even though the stock price has remained comfortably above the uptrend line.
In that same vein, good traders don't keep their eyes glued to the money. They concentrate on making good trades, knowing that making good trades will ultimately result in success. By good trades, I mean trades in which the trader enters at an appropriate point, has an exit strategy in place before entering the trade, and follows his plan for both entry and exit. That trader knows that some trades will inevitably lose, but if he has set an appropriate exit strategy and followed that strategy, the losses will be cut and they will be cut at acceptable levels. Similarly, the successful trader will not exit prematurely. He will have a strategy that permits his gains to continue to accumulate until and unless the pre-determined exit strategy takes him out of the play. In that fashion, he will have let his profits run instead of cutting those profits as many of the unsuccessful so often seem to do.
Yet another difference between the successful and the not so successful is that the former take it seriously in the sense that they continue to add to their knowledge. They read, watch DVDs, study other successful traders, learn nuances, attend seminars, and utilize a coach or mentor.
In summary it should not come as a big surprise that a plan, discipline, patience, learning to make good trades, and education are all elements that can help us become better traders.
CNBC gets really mad if you disagree with them.
Mugabe said "The unsuccessful traders are almost universally impatient. They may jump in without waiting for a good entry (such as one where there is a nearby exit in the event they are wrong on direction). They might pull the plug on the slightest adverse move, apparently failing to realize that is the natural action of the market for stocks to move up and down. If they buy a stock that is trending upward, for example, they may abandon ship on the first little downward move even though the stock price has remained comfortably above the uptrend line."
This is me to a tee. I have no patience and that is why sport betting works for me. Instant daily gratification. I will try VV and after researching I am going long
I have just read through mugabe's list of stock screeners and it's made me chuckle. For some time I've been trying to crystallise my move away from old fashioned investing guided by the "family stockbroker" (now fired) and into the new era. Well here is the crystallisation because if you look through mugabe's list there's no mention of P/E, dividend yield, assets (price/book value) or debt. Stock screening like this is more like following the run of the cards at a poker table than traditional investing; clearly this new way of "investing" has nothing to do with fundamentals or valuation. I'm a trained valuer but I can see now that "proper" valuation could be a hindrance in the new world we find ourselves in. If only I had understood this earlier. One of my trusted newsletters advised buying UK shares in April, but I was an avid reader of Mish and Denninger and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and all I could see was doom. Of course the reality is that everything is indeed going pear-shaped, but that doesn't stop the cards being dealt in the markets and I have missed one of the most obvious and safest investment runs of my lifetime. I missed it completely apart from the £5k I made on RDSB. The pundit I should have followed was Steve Moyer who understands the big picture but is willing to trade the moves. Oh well, never too late to learn. I'm quite looking forward to mastering the techniques of the new investment order which, I think, requires a deep understanding of the fundamentals WITHOUT allowing that to prevent trading the short-term moves.
The unsuccessful traders are almost universally impatient...
Agreed. I figured this out a long time ago. Look at any chart, the length of the moves run in months, years, sometimes decades. If you crave steady action you will get killed in this market. I've seen years where there were dozens of obvious plays, and I've seen times like now. Be careful out there.
....And don't fight the Tape!
Hi "edgar", Shaza
Part of the problem with fundamental screeniing is can u trust the numbers eg p/e, do you believe the earnings, debt to equity, do you believe the equity (or the debt for that matter)?
In addition , there are oodles of rxamples of shares with shitty fundamentals being in long uptrends (bore they finally crashed).
edgar is sopt on in what he says; especially the last part.
Virtually all of my newsletters are saying that there is still a lot of upside to s&p, with small breathers on the way up. This would include Marc Faber.
"JULY 29, 2009
"The Next Bubble Can Be In Equities"
"There is a bubble that the FED and the government are creating right now and this is a bubble in government debt, in the size of it. They are being very sucessful at that."
"Eventually the US Government will go bankrupt the way California is almost bankrupt, but that will take some time. The next bubble im my opinion can be a bubble again in equities." Marc Faber, Bloomberg TV
He is also saying to be VERY careful on CHINA....
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/
I think there's still some upside, possible to just below 1200. However, I'm trading on what I'm seeing now, not on what I think will happen. Nobody knows what will happen. When the trend ends, hop off. Just make sure you've got your trend lines OK....
I'm now at the stage where I'm not paying attention to any macro stuff for investment purposes, with the only exception being holding some gold if the SHTF. I'm also not paying attention to any guru re future price direction. "The tape tells all."
Having said that, probably be bankrupt next week.
btw, I'm not dyslexic, just type badly and can't be bothered to korrect
This is exactly what the hive was created for. As you speak I listen and I am learning so much. This was so fun to read. Thank you Mugabe, WaveRider and Edgar for the insight.
P.K. what is your take?
Oh and I forgot going Loco. Thank you for your post it was great!
What I cannot understand is why the dollar is still holding its value. I want gold to go down and even though it has been going sideways for months I want to buy under 900. Retail is still almost 1000.00
I do not know why KD gives the dic*heads at MSM the time of day...they will never let him make his point.
Why doesn't NPR pick up KD, at least they let their guests make their entire case.
KD is wasted on CNBC.
the following is idle speculation, nothing more:
if the market finally starts going down meaningfully (my macro gut tells me it will, the chart tells me nothing)then the dollar will most likely go up big, possibly giving you your chance to get some cheapish gold. you may have to wait a while, though...
I told you it was idle speculation...
So many cross currents where I am in Oklahoma. Rumor has it that Target set expectations really low and our local store is blowing out the numbers. Not all stores are like that tho...
Also, the local housing market is going to crash and they don't even know it yet. It is Cali 2005 here.
My gut tells me things are long term very much worse than we are being told, that makes it dangerous to play the game. Cash for clunkers could probably use up $50B but CONgreff thought everyone was broke so they only alloted a few measley billion. When CONgreff misjudges the eCONoME that badly that means they will short term over-stimulate leading to a very, very, long crash. I've heard a lot of people talk about jan. '10 puts. That may work out but don't be surprised if they can keep this bloated pig on his feet until after the mid-term elections.
Bee careful
Hi Shaza!
P.K. Where art thou?
Thank you guys for the input and I am ready for a downturn. I am going in on Monday for a company called Medifast Inc (MED) This is a VV favorite and it has a value in the high to mid 20's and is selling at 15.00. I agree that KD is wasted on the shouting networks like CNBC. He is much too intelligent and cannot communicate in soundbites. I wrote him and told him and he knows how the Queenbee perceives him. He wrote back and thanked me for the props.
There's nothing to do...you can short this market if you believe fundamentals, P/E, cash flow etc. still matter. But timing any downturn is a problem. Alternately, you can cave in and go long, day trade consumer stocks and buy and sell, buy and sell. Yet another choice would be to listen to Dennis Kneale and buy-and-hold...
Are you a trader or do you follow fundamentals to the end? KD obviously believes that this market can't fly much longer, as he said he has been short since the S&P reached 880. I will stick to his view, sink or swim. There are no rational reasons to be piling into consumer, financial and RE now, other than risky speculation.
What we need for this is a collapse of market confidence. The longer the drip, drip, drip of unconfirming stats continues the closer this comes.
Fundamentals won't matter as long as the banks keep selling shares to one another.
A lot has been said here the last couple of days about a few areas. On tactics for us individuals, anything that drowns out the noise can only make us better. Great points made.
In equities, it's clear any stock can go up, whatever the fundamentals, in this environment; all I know is the NY advance/decline line is still in an uptrend and the indexes won't go down as long as that's true. KD is right as one can be, BUT as I've seen before, the bad news doesn't matter until it does (big help, I know), see Keynes' line about markets being irrational. Until the mkt. doesn't do what it should in reacting to good news, the rally will continue. Or, if the China market cracks (or something else out of the blue), then look out.
David Rosenberg, formerly Merrill's top economist, made the same comparison as KD to the 2001 environment. He's been writing a daily commentary for his new employer available in a "free trial" I've been getting for about 2 mo. now, good stuff. Available here http://www.gluskinsheff.com/
As for gold, once it stops biding its time below 1000, then it will take off. Until then, patience, as Mugabe rightly points out.
One more thing, for those economically inclined--copper is still making higher highs for the move, off the Dec. (NOT March) lows. It's been said by those much smarter than me (e.g. Dennis Gartman), copper is the commmodity with a PhD in economics, IOW, the economy (globally these days) has a copper roof, meaning it's a great indicator of economic strength or weakness.
Thank you P.K. for the insight. I wasn't even thinking about copper. Great comment!
PK, the Aussie Dollar seems to be tracking copper now rather than gold as it used to do, hmmm?
Tax, there is always money to be made in any market, we just have to not be biased towards the macroeconomics...As Edgar says, BEE careful, but also BEE careful to ride the trend and not trade the macros! Otherwise, trading accounts are tied up to much towards cash...if you know what I mean! Gold has trended sideways for a long time now. If it ever gets above 1000 and stays there for more than a nano-second, it might up its trading range. IMO gold may have a future event priced in to it already, that is my main fear with gold now.
Shaza-all I can say is resource based currencies (Aust. NZ. CN.) should do well longer term, no?
QB-why would you sell over 1000? My point was that $1000 looks like the breakout point. But then, re-reading your post "I don't this Tax will sell regardless.", not sure what you meant (he said in jest).
In the present situation, to any logical investor who reads anything other than the mainstream press, gold should be rising continuously! Long bond yields should be over 10%. Consumer stocks and financials should be in the toilet. This is the beginning of a decade long depression, not just 2001-2002 again. A la Japan...even if growth of 1-2% occurs, that will NOT be enough to contain job losses - a fact we've all heard before. I'm betting at some time this reality will sink into the markets.
Gold is not an 'investment' so much as a safe place to park that part of my funds I plan to give to my kids. I don't see any other safe places right now. P.K., I won't sell my gold at all!
@shaza, it is true that we should be trading. But think about what you consider good enough value to put money into...as markets rise, certainty diminishes. I can't see much I want to buy long positions in except....gold stocks.
I don't see any reason to try and predict what will happen. That's a dangerous game and what makes options so dangeorus (apart from the crazy pricing). You need to wait until you get some fairly clear signs: market breaks key support, bounces back to key support and then falls again, advance-decline line starts to go doen meaningfully, followed by indexes falling below longer term moving averages.
Absolutely no sign of any of that. I also don't see why fundamentals matter if you're riding trends.
QB, thanks for the tip, will check it out. Am looking to stick a toe into AB next week. It's quite volatile so small position.
Re MED: rather thsn in an uptrend it's in a rocket on price and volume. However, it's now hitting a v signigicant zone of resistance (see 5-year chart). I'm already playing one rocket (HITK) and don't think I'll play two.
Queenbee- you said ‘What I cannot understand is why the dollar is still holding its value.’ Presumably the demand for dollars is equal to the current supply. Look at that clip Shaza posted where Grayson was interviewing Bernanke – he asked about recent currency swaps in the Fed’s balance sheet. What was it, $500 billion? Swapped with the ECB who presumably needed it to feed to European banks that desperately needed dollars? I don’t pretend I understand how this stuff works, but I notice that people have been calling for the crash of the USD for years and it hasn’t happened. I guess we just have to read the tape.
THis is an interesting site, chock full with technical anaylsis:
http://thepatternsite.com/index.html
It's maintained by THomas Bulkowski who's written a few charting books (I'll probably buy the most basic one soonish, it's got good reviews on Amazon).
And if you really want to cut to the chase, he's got a watch list of stocks he's looking at. Obviously this doesn't mean blindly going out anf buying them (!), but I've had a look at a few of the charts of the stocks mentioned and some of them look interesting. It's a bit like having another screener.
Enjoy!
@P.K. this is what I meant to say. Typo did not make sense.
"Shaza even if it goes above 1000 I won't sell. I don't think Taxhaven will sell regardless. We are married to our PM's."
Mugabe I will take a look at the chart link you gave me. All good posts last night and today
As some on the board seem to have a distrust of buying any shares now (bar goldminers), you may want to take a look into buying some ag comms via the ETF DBA. It's near the bottom of its upward channel (just boumced of the bottom), and presents a good risk-reward, imo.
As always, the decision is yours. As GAW usually says, this advice is worth wot you paid for it.
DBA is currently at $25+, but does seem to follow other commodities. Now if I only had some free cash...
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